Randall the Handle
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games include OT unless stated otherwise
Carolina +1.37 over TORONTO (REG)
The Hurricanes are pretty much “free-rolling” these days with no pressure on them whatsoever and with no shot of going anywhere this season they’re actually playing a whole lot better. The Canes have won three of its last four and that includes a win in New York against the Rangers. In all three games they allowed just one goal against. The Canes have some young call-ups that have inserted some life into them and the whole team is playing with enthusiasm. After a nice run the Leafs have sunk back near the bottom of the East. They have to be feeling a ton of pressure after losses in five of six including three straight. They could at least be forgiven for another loss if a good team was in town but that’s not the case. A loss here would be inexcusable and the press will be all over it should that come to pass. The Leafs propensity for falling behind early is a huge problem and they’re really in a no-win situation tonight, as a win is expected and a loss will be crippling. The Leafs are not a team you want to lay juice with and again, they’ll be playing with a lot of pressure on tem in this one. Play: Carolina +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.10 over Ottawa (REG)
The Sens may snap out of it at some point but until they do why not bet against them? This is a team that is mentally beat before they even step on the ice. They’re not scoring goals and that’s playing on their minds big time, thus, it’ll be near impossible to catch this offensive juggernaut should they fall behind again. The Sens have lost four straight and over that stretch they’ve been outscored 16-4. They have two netminders that are struggling, fighting the puck and playing with no confidence whatsoever. Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek are all still on the rack and that doesn’t leave many other options. The Thrashers are in a deep funk too but they have goal scorers and they have goaltending (most of the time). They were absolutely whacked in its last game to the tune of 8-1 by the Caps and you know for sure they’ll come out hungry tonight after that humiliation. The Thrashers have been off since Saturday and likely can’t wait to get back on the ice to erase that memory. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA -½ +1.54 over Dallas (1st Period)
The more I observe these lines and record the outcome the more I like them and will start playing them beginning here. If your team isn’t up at least a goal by end of the first period, do you really want them the rest of the game laying a half puck with a lot less take-back? I know I don’t and what usually happens is that the dog gains steam if they have a good first period and are tied or leading after one. What I do know is that the Flyers are lighting it up big time these days and in fact, has scored 28 times in its last six games. Over that stretch of six games they scored six or more three times and that includes 6 on the Rangers and 7 on the Penguins. Meanwhile, the Stars only notable output over its last five games is when they scored four on Rick DiPietro, a guy that’s been out for over a year. Throw out that one and they’ve scored three times in the other four games and that coincides with Mike Robeiro and Nicklas Grossman getting injured. Dallas has dropped seven straight and 10 of its last 11 on the road and asking them to keep pace here is a stretch at best. Philly is playing great, they’re rested and they should have tons of energy out of the gate. Play: Philadelphia -½ +1.54 in the first period (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.02 over Nashville (REG)
This is strictly a situational play, as the Oilers have been off since Thursday while the Preds played last night in Vancouver and will play its third game in four nights. It was a good win for them last night, thus they’ll be less of a sense of urgency for this one. The Oilers are slowly returning to health and the reports are that they’ll get another healthy body back tonight in Lubomir Visnovsky and that has to help. One has to figure the Oilers to have a jump in their step tonight with all that time off in the midst of a horrible slump. This is not a bad team in terms of talent and goaltending is a bit of an issue but we’re going with the best of it here in that the Preds have to be fatigued while the young Oilers will be at home and full of energy. Play: Edmonton +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games include OT unless stated otherwise
Carolina +1.37 over TORONTO (REG)
The Hurricanes are pretty much “free-rolling” these days with no pressure on them whatsoever and with no shot of going anywhere this season they’re actually playing a whole lot better. The Canes have won three of its last four and that includes a win in New York against the Rangers. In all three games they allowed just one goal against. The Canes have some young call-ups that have inserted some life into them and the whole team is playing with enthusiasm. After a nice run the Leafs have sunk back near the bottom of the East. They have to be feeling a ton of pressure after losses in five of six including three straight. They could at least be forgiven for another loss if a good team was in town but that’s not the case. A loss here would be inexcusable and the press will be all over it should that come to pass. The Leafs propensity for falling behind early is a huge problem and they’re really in a no-win situation tonight, as a win is expected and a loss will be crippling. The Leafs are not a team you want to lay juice with and again, they’ll be playing with a lot of pressure on tem in this one. Play: Carolina +1.37 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA -½ +1.10 over Ottawa (REG)
The Sens may snap out of it at some point but until they do why not bet against them? This is a team that is mentally beat before they even step on the ice. They’re not scoring goals and that’s playing on their minds big time, thus, it’ll be near impossible to catch this offensive juggernaut should they fall behind again. The Sens have lost four straight and over that stretch they’ve been outscored 16-4. They have two netminders that are struggling, fighting the puck and playing with no confidence whatsoever. Spezza, Alfredsson and Michalek are all still on the rack and that doesn’t leave many other options. The Thrashers are in a deep funk too but they have goal scorers and they have goaltending (most of the time). They were absolutely whacked in its last game to the tune of 8-1 by the Caps and you know for sure they’ll come out hungry tonight after that humiliation. The Thrashers have been off since Saturday and likely can’t wait to get back on the ice to erase that memory. Play: Atlanta -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA -½ +1.54 over Dallas (1st Period)
The more I observe these lines and record the outcome the more I like them and will start playing them beginning here. If your team isn’t up at least a goal by end of the first period, do you really want them the rest of the game laying a half puck with a lot less take-back? I know I don’t and what usually happens is that the dog gains steam if they have a good first period and are tied or leading after one. What I do know is that the Flyers are lighting it up big time these days and in fact, has scored 28 times in its last six games. Over that stretch of six games they scored six or more three times and that includes 6 on the Rangers and 7 on the Penguins. Meanwhile, the Stars only notable output over its last five games is when they scored four on Rick DiPietro, a guy that’s been out for over a year. Throw out that one and they’ve scored three times in the other four games and that coincides with Mike Robeiro and Nicklas Grossman getting injured. Dallas has dropped seven straight and 10 of its last 11 on the road and asking them to keep pace here is a stretch at best. Philly is playing great, they’re rested and they should have tons of energy out of the gate. Play: Philadelphia -½ +1.54 in the first period (Risking 2 units).
EDMONTON +1.02 over Nashville (REG)
This is strictly a situational play, as the Oilers have been off since Thursday while the Preds played last night in Vancouver and will play its third game in four nights. It was a good win for them last night, thus they’ll be less of a sense of urgency for this one. The Oilers are slowly returning to health and the reports are that they’ll get another healthy body back tonight in Lubomir Visnovsky and that has to help. One has to figure the Oilers to have a jump in their step tonight with all that time off in the midst of a horrible slump. This is not a bad team in terms of talent and goaltending is a bit of an issue but we’re going with the best of it here in that the Preds have to be fatigued while the young Oilers will be at home and full of energy. Play: Edmonton +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Tuesday NCAAB PLAY GC
On Tuesday night the free NCABB play is on Missouri State. Game 523 at 8:00 eastern. Missourit State has edges in both shooting and defending in this one and has won all 4 times covering 3 times vs losing teams. Thye have won and coverd 5 of 6 times after scoring 80 or more which suggests they can play well after high scoring outputs. When they play as road favorites in this range they have won and coverd 5 of the 7 times. Drake is a subpar team this year that has trouble even at home. They are 0-4 ats in lined home gamesand have lost 5 of 7 times vs winning teams. In the series Drake has been dominated by Missouri State losing 15 of the past 20 times. In late phone action I have a huge Double power angle dog with bite that wins outright. I cant belive this team is an underdog thay control all the stats and have 2 big power angles attached. In the NBA a 91% NBA system play with 2 go against angles for out opponent. Dont miss these 2 big plays tonight. Take Missouri State tonight and lay the 5 to 5.5 points. BOL GC
On Tuesday night the free NCABB play is on Missouri State. Game 523 at 8:00 eastern. Missourit State has edges in both shooting and defending in this one and has won all 4 times covering 3 times vs losing teams. Thye have won and coverd 5 of 6 times after scoring 80 or more which suggests they can play well after high scoring outputs. When they play as road favorites in this range they have won and coverd 5 of the 7 times. Drake is a subpar team this year that has trouble even at home. They are 0-4 ats in lined home gamesand have lost 5 of 7 times vs winning teams. In the series Drake has been dominated by Missouri State losing 15 of the past 20 times. In late phone action I have a huge Double power angle dog with bite that wins outright. I cant belive this team is an underdog thay control all the stats and have 2 big power angles attached. In the NBA a 91% NBA system play with 2 go against angles for out opponent. Dont miss these 2 big plays tonight. Take Missouri State tonight and lay the 5 to 5.5 points. BOL GC
Wunderdog
Game: Penn State at Illinois (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Illinois -8.5 (-110)
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Game: Penn State at Illinois (9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Illinois -8.5 (-110)
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Illinois has slowly begun building the program back up. The first thing that comes is restoring home dominance, and they certainly have done a good job of that. They have opened the season at 9-0 in Champagne. The Nittany Lions are too dependent on Taylor Battle - their only double-digit scorer. He is on the floor for 36 minutes per game, and the Illini will shut him down. The rest of the supporting cast just isn't good enough to make this one close. The Illini have a tremendous home-court advantage and feed off the energy, and without any answers beyond Battle, it will be a long night for the Nittany's. I'll go with Illinois in this one.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6* W ido w W iseg uy Lakers/Spurs Western Conference G AM E OF THE M ONT H on L.A. Lakers +3.5(-110 at bookm)
The Lakers catching points against the Spurs tonight is an absoulute gift. L.A. has lost 2 of their last 3, so this team is highly motivated led by the best player in the league in Kobe Bryant who doesn't settle for anything less than getting the best effort from his teammates. The Lakers are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games as a road underdog. The Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. These last 3 trends going against the Spurs add up to a 20-2 (91%) ATS Angle backing the Lakers tonight. Take the Lakers and the points.
5* W iseg uy C B B G AM E OF THE N IGH T on Bradley +13.5(-106 at 5dimes)
Northern Iowa is a great team, there's no questioning that. But after their 14-1 start to the season, their lines are starting to get inflated and that's certainly the case tonight against Bradley. 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Bradley is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at UNI. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. These teams have played a very competitive series in their history, and this game will be much more competitive than this line indicates. Take Bradley and the points.
4* on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 199(+101 at 5dimes)
Detroit was hoping to add offense to their team in the offseason with the signing of Ben Gordon, but it just hasn't happened for them this season. The Pistons are scoring only 91.5 points/game in what had been another dreadful year for this franchise. Detroit has lost 13 straight games and have failed to score more than 98 points in any of those 13 contests. With this total set nearly at 200 points, the clear value is with the UNDER tonight. 3 of their last 4 meetings with Washington have resulted in 194 or less combined points. Detroit is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1996. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the UNDER 199 points here.
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<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->6* W ido w W iseg uy Lakers/Spurs Western Conference G AM E OF THE M ONT H on L.A. Lakers +3.5(-110 at bookm)
The Lakers catching points against the Spurs tonight is an absoulute gift. L.A. has lost 2 of their last 3, so this team is highly motivated led by the best player in the league in Kobe Bryant who doesn't settle for anything less than getting the best effort from his teammates. The Lakers are 25-10-2 ATS in their last 37 games as a road underdog. The Spurs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Spurs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. These last 3 trends going against the Spurs add up to a 20-2 (91%) ATS Angle backing the Lakers tonight. Take the Lakers and the points.
5* W iseg uy C B B G AM E OF THE N IGH T on Bradley +13.5(-106 at 5dimes)
Northern Iowa is a great team, there's no questioning that. But after their 14-1 start to the season, their lines are starting to get inflated and that's certainly the case tonight against Bradley. 7 of the last 8 meetings in this series have been decided by 13 points or less. The Panthers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. Bradley is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings at UNI. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. These teams have played a very competitive series in their history, and this game will be much more competitive than this line indicates. Take Bradley and the points.
4* on Pistons/Wizards UNDER 199(+101 at 5dimes)
Detroit was hoping to add offense to their team in the offseason with the signing of Ben Gordon, but it just hasn't happened for them this season. The Pistons are scoring only 91.5 points/game in what had been another dreadful year for this franchise. Detroit has lost 13 straight games and have failed to score more than 98 points in any of those 13 contests. With this total set nearly at 200 points, the clear value is with the UNDER tonight. 3 of their last 4 meetings with Washington have resulted in 194 or less combined points. Detroit is 18-6 UNDER (+11.4 Units) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1996. The UNDER is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Take the UNDER 199 points here.
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Red Dog Sports
Northcoast Community Line, Marc Lawrence Playbook.com
VCU at Hofstra
over 64 (1st half)
Hofstra is off a road game at ODU where they couldn't break 50. They go home and face an uptempt VCU team that has played road games vs. Drexel and put up 78 in the first half as well as 71 at Tulane, 67 at W&M and 77 at Western Mich.
The last time Hofstra played at home after being at ODU they played a 36-36 (72) game in the first frame vs. JMU.
Hofstra's last home game in the CAA saw 81 points reached by them and Towson (45-36). Charlotte (80), Fairfield (82) and New Hampshire (74) easily crossed over the 64 plateau needed to win tonight. The home games vs. Manhattan and W&M were way below this total so let's hope we don't see this type of action tonight.
Look for Charles Jenkins, Chaz Williams and Halil Kancevic to score early for the Pride as well as Larry Sanders, Burgess, Rozzell, Skeen and Nixon to put up points for VCU. Maybe even John Leguzamo look-alike Joey Rodriguez can score a few too.
VCU/Hofstra
Over 64 (1H)
Northcoast Community Line, Marc Lawrence Playbook.com
VCU at Hofstra
over 64 (1st half)
Hofstra is off a road game at ODU where they couldn't break 50. They go home and face an uptempt VCU team that has played road games vs. Drexel and put up 78 in the first half as well as 71 at Tulane, 67 at W&M and 77 at Western Mich.
The last time Hofstra played at home after being at ODU they played a 36-36 (72) game in the first frame vs. JMU.
Hofstra's last home game in the CAA saw 81 points reached by them and Towson (45-36). Charlotte (80), Fairfield (82) and New Hampshire (74) easily crossed over the 64 plateau needed to win tonight. The home games vs. Manhattan and W&M were way below this total so let's hope we don't see this type of action tonight.
Look for Charles Jenkins, Chaz Williams and Halil Kancevic to score early for the Pride as well as Larry Sanders, Burgess, Rozzell, Skeen and Nixon to put up points for VCU. Maybe even John Leguzamo look-alike Joey Rodriguez can score a few too.
VCU/Hofstra
Over 64 (1H)
From axiumsports.com
January 12th 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$2,622.63
Pick #1- Italy Cup Soccer-AS Roma/Triestina UNDER 3 -105
Pick #2- NCAAB-VA Commonwealth -1.5 OVER Hofstra -110
January 12th 2009
*-Weekly System Picks. Please follow the system and do not increase your starting bet until you at least triple your account. -*
Current Bankroll=$2,622.63
Pick #1- Italy Cup Soccer-AS Roma/Triestina UNDER 3 -105
Pick #2- NCAAB-VA Commonwealth -1.5 OVER Hofstra -110
Fantasy Sports Gametime
These guys seems to pad their record on Trackpicks.com by picking -200,-300 favorites. Not sure if they are any good...
Tuesday Basketball
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Texas A&M (+9) over Kansas State (TOP NCAA PLAY)
Texas A&M has won 14 consecutive games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games and they are only allowing 62 points a game on defense this season. Kansas State has lost 7 consecutive games against the spread coming off a conference loss and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games after having won 12 of the last 15 games.
100* Play Kentucky (-3.5) over Florida (TOP NCAA PLAY)
Kentucky is a perfect 16-0 this season and they are averaging over 82 points a game on offense this season. Florida has lost 12 of the last 16 games as an underdog and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off a conference road loss.
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NBA Basketball
50* Play LA Clippers (+5) over Memphis (NBA PLAY)
Memphis has lost 26 of the last 35 games when playing in the month of January and they have also lost 27 of the last 38 games when playing with two days of rest. Memphis has lost 12 of the last 16 games coming off a loss by three points or less and they are allowing 104 points a game on defense this season.
These guys seems to pad their record on Trackpicks.com by picking -200,-300 favorites. Not sure if they are any good...
Tuesday Basketball
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Texas A&M (+9) over Kansas State (TOP NCAA PLAY)
Texas A&M has won 14 consecutive games after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games and they are only allowing 62 points a game on defense this season. Kansas State has lost 7 consecutive games against the spread coming off a conference loss and they have also lost 3 of the last 4 games after having won 12 of the last 15 games.
100* Play Kentucky (-3.5) over Florida (TOP NCAA PLAY)
Kentucky is a perfect 16-0 this season and they are averaging over 82 points a game on offense this season. Florida has lost 12 of the last 16 games as an underdog and they have also lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off a conference road loss.
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NBA Basketball
50* Play LA Clippers (+5) over Memphis (NBA PLAY)
Memphis has lost 26 of the last 35 games when playing in the month of January and they have also lost 27 of the last 38 games when playing with two days of rest. Memphis has lost 12 of the last 16 games coming off a loss by three points or less and they are allowing 104 points a game on defense this season.
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for Tue 1-12-10
by vegas-runner
Allright fellas...we nailed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night, a SU DOG WINNER...To take us to "4-1" on CBB "Early Moves"...
We are now "39-20" (66% ATS) OVERALL on "True Steam" Bets...since we launched this Blog...
Tonight, I've been able to isolate another "Added Board" wager...that according to my own Ratings/Numbers, still has plenty of value...Even after the books have adjusted for all of the "steam" they had to take on this game...
Remember, the books are adjusting for all the public bettors that are now making their way over to basketball, from football...So that means if we can strengthen our own numbers during this transition...we should be able to uncover some spots, that offer up even more value than ever before...
That's what the Betting Syndicates bank on to beat the books in all sports, each and every season...And there is very little that the books can do to prevent this, or to protect themselves...
More importantly, for tonight's "True Steam"...I believe it's one of those instances where the sportsbooks can only adjust so far...Because it's an "Added Board" game...And more importantly, it's a TOTAL...Which means that it will get very little volume from the betting public...
And because of that, there is only so much of an adjustment that the books can make for "steam" coming in...Because they are aware that if they do go ahead and adjust this Total to where they would like...or even, to where I feel it should be...then it will really open the door for them to get killed on this game...Because the "middle" opportunity would then become too profitable for the Outfits to pass up...
And what we saw early on this season...and pretty much, every season...is that the Wiseguys do so much damage with Totals, because the oddsmakers numbers are so WEAK, compared to those that the Outfits are using...So when the Betting Syndicates came in on those Totals, early in the season...the books were forced to continue adjusting...Especially, since there was very little public money to help them get any kind of balance...Those adjustments opened up huge "middle" opportunities, and I can tell you for certainty, that the Wiseguys really cashed in on them...
This is why I love these kind of "True Steam" Bets...Because I can almost be 100% sure, that the books would like to adjust the Total even more...But for the reasons that I just touched on...THEY CAN'T...And therefore, we find ourselves with what I like to call, a "true" value bet...VR
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-12-10 :
1.) TENN ST/IOWA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
I was extemely surprised that CRIS opened this Total up at 132 last night...Because I had made my own line for this game 136.5, and that was my "Fair Line"...While my "True Line" was actually 138...But when I looked at the "match-up stats" that every bettor checks daily, and are available everywhere...it became obvious why they went ahead and brought it out so low...And the reason for this is the amount of points that Iowa has scored in 3 of the L/4 games...and Tenn St has in 2 of their L/3...As well as the "perceived tempo" for BOTH...So that made me assume that this Total was based more on "Public Perception"...than anything else...
I was also surprised that the Wiseguys left the Total alone for this game at first...so that it was still 132 at the end of the night...But as I've covered in so many past blogs, we know that there are very few books that offer Totals on CBB the night before the games...Especially on "Added Board" match-ups...And more importantly, those books that are willing to offer a betting line the night before...are extremely limiting the amount of money they are willing to book...
So it makes perfect sense, for these Outfits to wait until more "outs" are available...And the limits are higher, before they go ahead and tip their hand on what position they are going to take...
That's exactly what happened here, because we saw that this morning...over an "8 MINUTE" period, enough "steam" came in on the OVER 132, 132.5, & 133...to force the adjustment up to 134...Where this total is now almost all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Truth is, according to my own Ratings/Numbers...this Total still isn't high enough...And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another "Buy-Order" go out on the OVER...If this Over does catch some more "steam", it will then put the books in a tough spot...because adjusting again will definitely open up a huge "middle" opportunity...In which case, we will almost certainly see this Total come back down some...as we approach tip-off...But what choice will they have...
Where it sits right now, at 134...I believe we won't see anyone try and attempt a "middle", which is why I advise those who agree with me...and the Betting Syndicates, to go OVER now...Because I do believe we are still getting plenty of value, and I doubt that it will come back down, closer to the opening number...
But those who disagree, and like the UNDER...I believe that by waiting, you may find yourselves with an even higher Total to go Under...But I would go ahead and make that bet as soon as I see it move upwards some more...Because the Outfits will also be waiting for that to happen, and if they do attempt that "middle"...then it should come back down a bit...
Bottom line...I know that these 2 clubs don't employ the quickest tempo...But I don't think that either has the type of size advantage to make this a "post-up" type of game...And I also think that BOTH of these teams are weak enough defensively, that the other will be able to score some points...I look for this game to possibly eclipse 140.
by vegas-runner
Allright fellas...we nailed another CBB "True Steam" Bet last night, a SU DOG WINNER...To take us to "4-1" on CBB "Early Moves"...
We are now "39-20" (66% ATS) OVERALL on "True Steam" Bets...since we launched this Blog...
Tonight, I've been able to isolate another "Added Board" wager...that according to my own Ratings/Numbers, still has plenty of value...Even after the books have adjusted for all of the "steam" they had to take on this game...
Remember, the books are adjusting for all the public bettors that are now making their way over to basketball, from football...So that means if we can strengthen our own numbers during this transition...we should be able to uncover some spots, that offer up even more value than ever before...
That's what the Betting Syndicates bank on to beat the books in all sports, each and every season...And there is very little that the books can do to prevent this, or to protect themselves...
More importantly, for tonight's "True Steam"...I believe it's one of those instances where the sportsbooks can only adjust so far...Because it's an "Added Board" game...And more importantly, it's a TOTAL...Which means that it will get very little volume from the betting public...
And because of that, there is only so much of an adjustment that the books can make for "steam" coming in...Because they are aware that if they do go ahead and adjust this Total to where they would like...or even, to where I feel it should be...then it will really open the door for them to get killed on this game...Because the "middle" opportunity would then become too profitable for the Outfits to pass up...
And what we saw early on this season...and pretty much, every season...is that the Wiseguys do so much damage with Totals, because the oddsmakers numbers are so WEAK, compared to those that the Outfits are using...So when the Betting Syndicates came in on those Totals, early in the season...the books were forced to continue adjusting...Especially, since there was very little public money to help them get any kind of balance...Those adjustments opened up huge "middle" opportunities, and I can tell you for certainty, that the Wiseguys really cashed in on them...
This is why I love these kind of "True Steam" Bets...Because I can almost be 100% sure, that the books would like to adjust the Total even more...But for the reasons that I just touched on...THEY CAN'T...And therefore, we find ourselves with what I like to call, a "true" value bet...VR
CBB "TRUE STEAM" for TUE 1-12-10 :
1.) TENN ST/IOWA Total Opened 132....Now 134 (BET OVER)
I was extemely surprised that CRIS opened this Total up at 132 last night...Because I had made my own line for this game 136.5, and that was my "Fair Line"...While my "True Line" was actually 138...But when I looked at the "match-up stats" that every bettor checks daily, and are available everywhere...it became obvious why they went ahead and brought it out so low...And the reason for this is the amount of points that Iowa has scored in 3 of the L/4 games...and Tenn St has in 2 of their L/3...As well as the "perceived tempo" for BOTH...So that made me assume that this Total was based more on "Public Perception"...than anything else...
I was also surprised that the Wiseguys left the Total alone for this game at first...so that it was still 132 at the end of the night...But as I've covered in so many past blogs, we know that there are very few books that offer Totals on CBB the night before the games...Especially on "Added Board" match-ups...And more importantly, those books that are willing to offer a betting line the night before...are extremely limiting the amount of money they are willing to book...
So it makes perfect sense, for these Outfits to wait until more "outs" are available...And the limits are higher, before they go ahead and tip their hand on what position they are going to take...
That's exactly what happened here, because we saw that this morning...over an "8 MINUTE" period, enough "steam" came in on the OVER 132, 132.5, & 133...to force the adjustment up to 134...Where this total is now almost all across the board...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Truth is, according to my own Ratings/Numbers...this Total still isn't high enough...And I wouldn't be surprised if we see another "Buy-Order" go out on the OVER...If this Over does catch some more "steam", it will then put the books in a tough spot...because adjusting again will definitely open up a huge "middle" opportunity...In which case, we will almost certainly see this Total come back down some...as we approach tip-off...But what choice will they have...
Where it sits right now, at 134...I believe we won't see anyone try and attempt a "middle", which is why I advise those who agree with me...and the Betting Syndicates, to go OVER now...Because I do believe we are still getting plenty of value, and I doubt that it will come back down, closer to the opening number...
But those who disagree, and like the UNDER...I believe that by waiting, you may find yourselves with an even higher Total to go Under...But I would go ahead and make that bet as soon as I see it move upwards some more...Because the Outfits will also be waiting for that to happen, and if they do attempt that "middle"...then it should come back down a bit...
Bottom line...I know that these 2 clubs don't employ the quickest tempo...But I don't think that either has the type of size advantage to make this a "post-up" type of game...And I also think that BOTH of these teams are weak enough defensively, that the other will be able to score some points...I look for this game to possibly eclipse 140.
andrew bucciarelli 1-12
Lost yesterday for the 1st time since I have been posting. Actually got swept.
Here is todays email:
Carolina Hurricanes (+129)(2**)
The Carolina Hurricanes' season was derailed by a month-long string of losses. Perhaps just as telling a sign of their struggles has been the lack of a single three-game winning streak. The Hurricanes are six points behind Toronto (15-22-9), which has had major problems at both ends of the ice lately. Carolina won the last matchup between these, so look for an exciting rematch to take place.
Take CAROLINA.
Washington Capitals (-166) (2**)
The Washington Capitals' control of the Southeast Division appears secure for a third straight season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning certainly don't need a reminder. Washington will try to beat the Lightning for a 13th consecutive time on Tuesday night, with the cruising Capitals looking for a fourth straight win overall as they visit Tampa Bay. Mike Smith has been especially sharp in Tampa, going 7-3-3 with a 2.05 GAA there. Smith, though, has lost all three of his career starts against the Capitals while posting a 5.25 GAA.
Take WASHINGTON.
St. Louis Blues (-140) - (1*)
While Davis Payne is savoring his first win as St. Louis Blues coach, he also has to figure out how to help his club end its woes at home.A matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have had their own problems winning in St. Louis, might be a good way to start. St. Louis has not lost at home to Columbus (18-20-9) since a 4-1 defeat March 27, 2007. The Blue Jackets have scored 10 goals during their seven-game road slide in the series, with six of the losses coming in regulation. St. Louis will prevail once again.
Take ST. LOUIS.
Lost yesterday for the 1st time since I have been posting. Actually got swept.
Here is todays email:
Carolina Hurricanes (+129)(2**)
The Carolina Hurricanes' season was derailed by a month-long string of losses. Perhaps just as telling a sign of their struggles has been the lack of a single three-game winning streak. The Hurricanes are six points behind Toronto (15-22-9), which has had major problems at both ends of the ice lately. Carolina won the last matchup between these, so look for an exciting rematch to take place.
Take CAROLINA.
Washington Capitals (-166) (2**)
The Washington Capitals' control of the Southeast Division appears secure for a third straight season, and the Tampa Bay Lightning certainly don't need a reminder. Washington will try to beat the Lightning for a 13th consecutive time on Tuesday night, with the cruising Capitals looking for a fourth straight win overall as they visit Tampa Bay. Mike Smith has been especially sharp in Tampa, going 7-3-3 with a 2.05 GAA there. Smith, though, has lost all three of his career starts against the Capitals while posting a 5.25 GAA.
Take WASHINGTON.
St. Louis Blues (-140) - (1*)
While Davis Payne is savoring his first win as St. Louis Blues coach, he also has to figure out how to help his club end its woes at home.A matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets, who have had their own problems winning in St. Louis, might be a good way to start. St. Louis has not lost at home to Columbus (18-20-9) since a 4-1 defeat March 27, 2007. The Blue Jackets have scored 10 goals during their seven-game road slide in the series, with six of the losses coming in regulation. St. Louis will prevail once again.
Take ST. LOUIS.
lillefty 1-12
2* N.Iowa/Bradley over 127.5(9pm) - As you guys know , I have been on the N.Iowa bandwagon for most of the year. I think this is a major letdown spot for them though. I am not ready to bet against a team that is streaking though, that is foolish. Bradley has managed to get many teams that are normally slowdown tempo teams to play to their uptempo style. Bradley has allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to reach 80 pts. I don't think N.Iowa reaches that today but they do reach 70. Since this is a letdown spot, I see this being more than likely a close game. This means Bradley is more than likely around 65. Of course if the game is this close we will probably have those free throw points to jack up the score here.
2* Baylor -4.5 over Colorado(9pm) - This is a play on how bad Colorado really is. They are 8-0 at home which gives us great value with Baylor tonight. Looking at those 8 wins(ark-PB, coppin st, tex south, San fran, colo christ, CSU-North, Yale and Miami-oh), the best team there just might be the 3-11 Miami oh team. Baylor has given S.Carolina their only home loss, Arizona st 1 of their 2 home loses and handled Xavier on a neutral court. My only concern is how big of a win they are coming off of , which is why this is a 2 star not a 3 star.
1* Missouri st -5.5 over Drake(8pm) - Mizzou st looks to be one of those classic better than most but not quite top tier Missouri Valley Schools. They were cruising along till last week when the big boys separated themselves from the pretenders. They hung tough with N.Iowa, Wichita st and Illinois st, which are the 3 top teams in the conf. Missou st has beat many decent teams like Bradley, St Louis, Tulsa and Auburn. Drake on the other hand has trouble putting the biscuit in the basket. Recent outings vs the top MVC teams has seen them light it up for 46 vs Indy st and 38 vs Wichita st. Mizzou st gets back on their winning ways tonight.
1* Penn st/Illinois under 132(9pm) - Much like the under the other day with wright st/valpo game this one becomes a different animal when teams start conference play. Penn st is a top 200 team in possession per game. So far in conference play PSU has a 119 and a 107 to their credit. While the Illini got lulled to sleep by Iowa and Indiana with neither game topping 120. These 2 teams haven't combined for a total this high since 2005. Who could forget that classic 38-33 game last February. look for another game in the 50's here with Maybe the winner getting to the mid 60's.
2* N.Iowa/Bradley over 127.5(9pm) - As you guys know , I have been on the N.Iowa bandwagon for most of the year. I think this is a major letdown spot for them though. I am not ready to bet against a team that is streaking though, that is foolish. Bradley has managed to get many teams that are normally slowdown tempo teams to play to their uptempo style. Bradley has allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents to reach 80 pts. I don't think N.Iowa reaches that today but they do reach 70. Since this is a letdown spot, I see this being more than likely a close game. This means Bradley is more than likely around 65. Of course if the game is this close we will probably have those free throw points to jack up the score here.
2* Baylor -4.5 over Colorado(9pm) - This is a play on how bad Colorado really is. They are 8-0 at home which gives us great value with Baylor tonight. Looking at those 8 wins(ark-PB, coppin st, tex south, San fran, colo christ, CSU-North, Yale and Miami-oh), the best team there just might be the 3-11 Miami oh team. Baylor has given S.Carolina their only home loss, Arizona st 1 of their 2 home loses and handled Xavier on a neutral court. My only concern is how big of a win they are coming off of , which is why this is a 2 star not a 3 star.
1* Missouri st -5.5 over Drake(8pm) - Mizzou st looks to be one of those classic better than most but not quite top tier Missouri Valley Schools. They were cruising along till last week when the big boys separated themselves from the pretenders. They hung tough with N.Iowa, Wichita st and Illinois st, which are the 3 top teams in the conf. Missou st has beat many decent teams like Bradley, St Louis, Tulsa and Auburn. Drake on the other hand has trouble putting the biscuit in the basket. Recent outings vs the top MVC teams has seen them light it up for 46 vs Indy st and 38 vs Wichita st. Mizzou st gets back on their winning ways tonight.
1* Penn st/Illinois under 132(9pm) - Much like the under the other day with wright st/valpo game this one becomes a different animal when teams start conference play. Penn st is a top 200 team in possession per game. So far in conference play PSU has a 119 and a 107 to their credit. While the Illini got lulled to sleep by Iowa and Indiana with neither game topping 120. These 2 teams haven't combined for a total this high since 2005. Who could forget that classic 38-33 game last February. look for another game in the 50's here with Maybe the winner getting to the mid 60's.
