Al DeMarco
Tuesday's Play
5 Dime - Philadelphia (Hamels) - 1 1/2 Runs over Toronto (Romero)
Philadelphia is 7-1 in Cole Hamels' last eight trips to the mound, but there have been a few bumps in the road. Three starts ago, the lefthander was roughed up by Washington at home, allowing six earned runs and eight hits in six innings, but still got the win. However, the 2008 World Series MVP rebounded in his next outing at Los Angeles, needing just 97 pitches in a five-hit shutout of the Dodgers. His next start versus the Mets in New York resulted in a no-decision -- although the Phils did rally for the victory -- after Hamels allowed 11 hits and four earned runs in five brief innings.
Tonight Hamels faces a Toronto team that is 1-4 on the road in night games facing southpaws. Plus, the Blue Jays, after a sizzling 27-14 start, have fizzled, losing 17 of their last 24 overall, including 10 of 12 on the road. And Toronto fell to 0-6 in Interleague play after getting swept by Florida, over the weekend, getting outscored 24-11 in the three-game series. The Jays previously lost a three-game Interleague series at Atlanta, another N.L. East club, in mid-May.
During Toronto's 7-17 skid, its pitching staff has a 5.10 ERA thanks in part to allowing 31 home runs in that 24-game stretch. Awaiting the Jays tonight is hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park and a Philadelphia offense that's banged out a National League-leading 90 homers this season.
Getting the call for Toronto is rookie lefthander Ricky Romero. The Phillies are 15-7 versus southpaws this season, including 8-3 at home.
Considering Philadelphia's offensive prowess at home, its pitching advantage with Hamels versus a rookie, and Toronto's recent struggles, especially on the road, this is an ideal spot to lay the 1 1 /2 runs and reduce the overwhelming home favorite to a slight underdog or pick-em.