Tom Freese
20* No Brainer
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Denver +6.5
Denver is in a 38-16 ATS System that says to Play On underdogs after allowing 105 or more points in their last game vs. an opponent who is off a game where their was a combined score of 160 or less points scored. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS their last 8 Playoff games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 1-6 off a straight up win. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS off a double digit win and they are 1-5 ATS when their opponent allowed 100 or more points in their last games. 20* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON DENVER +
20* No Brainer
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Denver +6.5
Denver is in a 38-16 ATS System that says to Play On underdogs after allowing 105 or more points in their last game vs. an opponent who is off a game where their was a combined score of 160 or less points scored. The Lakers are 2-6 ATS their last 8 Playoff games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points and they are 1-6 off a straight up win. Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS off a double digit win and they are 1-5 ATS when their opponent allowed 100 or more points in their last games. 20* "NO BRAINER" PLAY ON DENVER +
Joe Nelson
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Under 214.5
Denver still has the reputation of a high scoring offensive minded team and certainly the Nuggets can put up points. In reality however the Nuggets have gone from an exciting also-ran to a serious contender this season by stepping up on defense. Denver allows 100 points per game on the year but they have actually forced lower shooting percentages than the Lakers have and Denver is a very tough rebounding team with a formidable front line. The past four Denver games all went ‘over’ but the Dallas series was a much different type of match-up. The final three games of the New Orleans series all played ‘under’ as Denver did not allow the Hornets to score more than 95 points in any game. Eight of the last ten meetings with the Lakers have all played ‘under’ and this is actually a higher number than the most recent meeting between these team teams. That game barely cleared 210 to play ‘over’ but Kenyon Martin did not play and the Lakers had 46 free throw attempts in a 14-point victory. Houston did not top 100 points in any of the seven games of the series and Utah only topped 100 point once in that series so the Lakers have been playing excellent defense as well. The Rockets shot just 41 percent in the last five games of the series including just 28 percent from 3-point range. Only two of the last ten games for the Lakers have played ‘over’ and given the rest advantage that Denver has had entering this series the Lakers know they would be best served to slow the pace of this game and focus on defense. Both teams will have a hard time finding open looks and this total is greatly inflated based on the public perception of the offense capable with these teams. This should be a lower scoring game that stays well ‘under’ the posted total barring a tightly officiated game that results in many extra foul shots or an overtime game.
Denver at LA Lakers
Play: Under 214.5
Denver still has the reputation of a high scoring offensive minded team and certainly the Nuggets can put up points. In reality however the Nuggets have gone from an exciting also-ran to a serious contender this season by stepping up on defense. Denver allows 100 points per game on the year but they have actually forced lower shooting percentages than the Lakers have and Denver is a very tough rebounding team with a formidable front line. The past four Denver games all went ‘over’ but the Dallas series was a much different type of match-up. The final three games of the New Orleans series all played ‘under’ as Denver did not allow the Hornets to score more than 95 points in any game. Eight of the last ten meetings with the Lakers have all played ‘under’ and this is actually a higher number than the most recent meeting between these team teams. That game barely cleared 210 to play ‘over’ but Kenyon Martin did not play and the Lakers had 46 free throw attempts in a 14-point victory. Houston did not top 100 points in any of the seven games of the series and Utah only topped 100 point once in that series so the Lakers have been playing excellent defense as well. The Rockets shot just 41 percent in the last five games of the series including just 28 percent from 3-point range. Only two of the last ten games for the Lakers have played ‘over’ and given the rest advantage that Denver has had entering this series the Lakers know they would be best served to slow the pace of this game and focus on defense. Both teams will have a hard time finding open looks and this total is greatly inflated based on the public perception of the offense capable with these teams. This should be a lower scoring game that stays well ‘under’ the posted total barring a tightly officiated game that results in many extra foul shots or an overtime game.
