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Way too much chit chat girls.

14 games total and 402 posts.
 

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I always get a kick out of some people in regards to line movement. Lines can move(or not move) for a ton of reasons. The three most overused sayings i see in this industry, and they all drive me nuts, are reverse line movement, smart money and vegas knows something. Now i'm not saying line movement doesn't mean nothing, because it really does, but u need to figure out why the line has moved which leads to hardcore handicapping. Here is what I personally do. I get the opening lines from bookmaker the night before and start to cap the games accordingly. If I really like a certain side and then see that the line has moved against me on the dog side (+5 to +4) or favorite side or -4 to -5 only means I like the game more and its an investment. If a person was to play a certain side because the line moved and the public is on the other side heavy then you will lose your money and alot of it, espcially if its only moved .5 point.

There really isn't such a thing as 'reverse line movement' and there isn't really a thing as 'smart money'. I know from experience that a line can be moved by a sharp $1,000 bettor rather then a $8,000 bet from a trust fund baby. If someones definition of smart money is 'big bets' coming in on a certain team then there is 'smart money' on every single side in all of the events.

I ran a test in a forum full of squares a year or so ago and i offered them opening/closing lines on two college football games which I had a lot of trust on one side in each game that would cover. One line opened was a home favorite at -3 and closed at -5 and another one was +4 and closed at +4. I believe close to 75%(give or take) of the people said they wanted the -5 favorite in game 'a' because the money was coming in on the favorite which moved the line to -5 which is what a typical novice better would think and sometimes they are correct however more times then not they are wrong.

From a business perspective and this applies to Pinnacle spotsbook because i view them more as a syndicate rather then a sportsbook. If most bettors are going to wager on a team at -3 they is a solid chance they will still back them at -5 as well which would give the book more of an advantage it already has on a investor. Take our friend Jefferson for example. 90% of his wagers are released on sides where the line has moved against the opening line( Bulls +2 to +1.5 and Northeastern +3.5 to +2). He knows why these lines moved because he has contacts behind the desks who know exactly why which seperates him from everyone else.

Just my 2cents so take it for what its worth.

Great post. If you are betting line moves and don't know who is responsible for the move than you might as well use a dart board. Syndicates will bet a side as a "set up" for the public/squares and will come around and hammer the other side before game time. I have noticed that Jefferson is usually on the correct side of line moves. Posters are all over him for releasing plays the night before but if you were smart you would realize he is probally betting a steam move. Also, Vegas Runner knows if line movement is from sharp or square money.(<)<
 

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Jefferson also lost 10 straight games last week...poor example to use

Sportbetting legend Sonny Reizner once lived through a 3-year losing streak. It was some 34 months between 'peaks' in his bankroll. He said it cost him his house and his kid's college fund.

Las Vegas celebrity handicapper Tony Diamond once gave out 27 straight NBA losers on his Las Vegas radio show. A University of Nevada mathematics professor figured the odds against going 0-27 to be well into 7 figures.


Sharps/Syndicates lose 10 games in a week all the time. Jeffersons long term record speaks for itself. Anyone who thinks that a tout can hit 60% in the long run still believes in Santa Claus.:laugh:
 

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