I saw the Goodfella post so thought I would just throw this write-up in from Sportswagers.
Sportswagers (CFL record YTD 9-12)
Edmonton @ B.C. LIONS
B.C. LIONS +115 over Edmonton
We often write about under and overreactions when betting on NFL games and so we’re going to apply that same theory here. This line is a classic example of overreactions to both clubs. First, there’s B.C., a team that looked awful last week in a road game in Winnipeg in which they lost 23-13. The week before, the Lions blew a 21-0 lead to the Argonauts and lost 30-27. If you have bet the Lions this season in every game against the spread, you have not cashed a ticket yet. This is a club that has not looked sharp and that has disappointed every one of their backers almost every game. Now the masses will jump off and we’re jumping on.
Then there’s the Edmonton Eskimos. A team that has won four straight, have covered four straight and that has rewarded their backers with some “easy money”. Edmonton’s last two wins were by scores of 30-5 and 32-3. That’s a combined 62-8. Two games prior to that they had a 46-17 win. In recapping, the Eskies have defeated three of their last four opponents by a combined 109-25. Wow. Now you only have to spot a couple of points to back them here in a game they should romp in? Not so fast. You see Edmonton’s last two wins came against Saskatchewan and its brutal third string QB making his first CFL start. The Riders couldn’t move five yards. In Edmonton’s 32-3 win over Winnipeg, that game was 4-3 at the half and then Drew Willy was injured. Edmonton went on to score the next 28 points with Willy out and Brian Brohm in. Brohm threw two picks that directly led to two Edmonton TD’s. It should be noted that despite not being able to move five yards, Winnipeg held a time of possession edge over Edmonton in that 32-3 loss. It’s also worth noting that all of those blowout wins were in Edmonton. The Eskies four wins have come against Ottawa twice, Saskatchewan with its third string QB and Winnipeg with Brian Brohm being forced into duty. Edmonton’s lone loss was in Week 1 when the Argonauts made them look like Saskatchewan. Now for the first time all year, Matt Nichols is going to be forced to put up some points. He’s very unlikely to be sitting with a comfortable lead and there’s a distinct possibility that he’ll be trailing at some point as well. Ya ‘all remember Matt Nichols, no? When Mike Reilly was injured, Edmonton was written off because they had to use Nichols. Four games later after playing in extremely favorable situations, nobody is talking about how bad Nichols is anymore. There are likely going to be some reminders here. This is such a great spot for the Lions to come up big against a team that is still weak at the QB position and that will play its first tough road game of the season.
Our Pick
B.C. LIONS +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)