here come the dupes....
Indian Cowboy Comp
L.A. Sparks +206 ML (1 unit selection only)
This is mean to be a 1 unit selection btw as I do this in the NBA all the time and have cashed on as high money line as the Grizzlies +1100 ML on the road at the Lakers and the Kings +1130 ML on the road at Denver with revenge. The same rules apply here as given the research Connecticut truly should not be favored and I will always take a shot on the ML in the course of a season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Conn win this game but given what the 5.5 line means to me overall and the fact that I have the Sparks as 48% of winning this game outright, I'll tack this one with the other 2 standard 3 unit plays in looking for a cash, this is similar to any underdog in baseball out there and the value is there.
Research:
Both teams sit at 14-10, the Sparks beat this team in OT at home their last ballgame, the Sparks come off a massive win on the road at Detroit so possible let down here and Conn is facing the daunting -5.5 spread, the worst spread in sports for a favorite in my opinion, the same goes for the -3.5 spread in football, just a ****ty spread always for the favorite and indicative that they expect the favorite to possibly lose outright, it's the worst spread in college basketball as well, whenever I see a -5.5 spread, I think Vegas believes there is a 40% chance that the underdog could win outright and that is usually the case. As per this game, Conn has revenge but they have been playing ****ty basketball and have lost 9 of their last 10 covers, if anything a lean on the Sparks to win this baby outright, heck, even 1 unit on the ML is not a bad idea here imo. Heck, it sits at +208 from where I stand.
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