Service Plays Thursday 7/10/08

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VERNON CROY

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics (MLB) - 3:35 PM EDT Premium Play
Pick: Under 8.5/-110

Play Title: 20 Unit MLB Afternoon

20 Units Under 8.5/-110

Take the Under as my MLB Total of the Week.
 
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MLB
Write-up


Thursday, July 10

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Hot Pitchers
-- Cardinals won five of last six Looper road starts.
-- Zito is 2-1, 3.86 in his last three starts; Giants won his last four starts on foreign soil.
-- Brewers won five of last six Bush home starts.
-- Cubs won Lilly's last seven home starts. Arroyo is 2-0, 1.50 in his last couple outings.
-- Haren is 3-1, 1.69 in his last seven starts. Bergmann has a 2.25 RA in his last three starts, but Nats are 1-8 in his last 9 starts.
-- Park is 1-0, 1.06 in his last three starts.

-- Twins won last five Slowey starts (4-0, 2.06).
-- Dickey has 1.86 RA in his last three starts.
-- Orioles won five of last seven Guthrie starts. Halladay is 2-0, 2.12 in his last four starts.
-- Rays won last seven Sonnanstine starts; he went to college at nearby Kent State.
-- Lackey is 5-1, 2.39 in his last seven starts. Texas won the last three Feldman starts (1-0, 2.70).
-- Buehrle has 2.01 RA in his last six starts, but White Sox lost six of his last eight road outings. Royals won five of Greinke's six home starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Moyer is 0-3, 4.13 in his last four starts.
-- Maine has 5.35 RA in his last six starts.
-- de la Rosa has 6.97 in his last four starts.
-- Josh Johnson returns from lengthy stay on DL; he was 12-7 in 24 starts in '06, but lasted only four starts LY before the DL.

-- Rogers has 5.68 RA in his last three starts, but Detroit won six of his last seven home starts.
-- Smith is 0-2, 6.75 in his last two home starts.
-- Laffey is 0-5, 8.26 in eight starts this season.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won three of their last four road games.
-- Mets won six of their last seven games.
-- Brewers won ten of their last thirteen home games. Rockies won seven of their last nine games.
-- Cubs are 24-4 in last 28 games at Wrigley Field.
-- Dodgers won six of their last eight games.

-- Tigers won 13 of their last 14 home games.
-- A's are 16-11 in their last 27 home games.
-- Blue Jays won three of their last four games.
-- Red Sox won their last four home games.
-- Rangers won four of last five games.
-- White Sox won eleven of their last thirteen games.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost nine of last eleven home games.
-- Giants lost last three games, getting shut out in last two.
-- Arizona lost eight of last eleven games; they scored a total of eight runs in their last five. Nationals lost six of their last seven
-- Florida is 9-16 in its last twenty-five road games. .

-- Twins lost last three games, allowing 25 runs.
-- Mariners lost three of their last four games.
-- Orioles lost its last four games, giving up 32 runs.
-- Indians lost last ten games, allowing 74 runs. Rays lost three games in row, scoring five runs in 29 innings.
-- Royals lost six of their last eight games.

Totals
-- Under is 7-2 in Phillies' last nine home games.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Maine starts.
-- Over is 6-1 in last seven Colorado games.
-- Over is 10-5 in Cubs' last fifteen games.
-- Under is 14-2-1 in last seventeen Arizona games.
-- Over is 9-2-1 in Florida's last twelve road games. 13 of last 17 Dodger games stayed under the total.

-- Under is 6-2 in Rogers' last eight starts.
-- Under is 7-3 in Oakland's last ten games.
-- Over is 7-2 in Orioles' last nine games.
-- TB-Clev
-- Nine of last twelve Angel road games stayed under total.
-- Nine of Royals' last eleven games went over the total.
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MLB

Thursday, July 10

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Streaking Starting Pitchers
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Streaking

Chan Ho Park (4-2, 2.36)

We were as surprised to put Chan Ho Park in the Streaking section as you probably are reading it, but you can't argue with the numbers. Since the Dodgers put Park back in the rotation on June 21, he has allowed just two runs over more than 18 innings while picking up two wins (one of which was in a spot relief appearance).

What's probably more shocking about the mercurial veteran is that he has also a 23:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio since making that spot start back on June 21 as well.

"He was the old Chan Ho," catcher Russell Martin told reporters after Park went six scoreless against the Angels at the end of last month. "He's sneaky with his fastball and he was ahead of the hitters."

Kevin Slowey (6-6, 3.78)

Slowey was smacked around a bit in his last start, allowing six hits and five earned runs over six innings, but the Twins' offense helped him by putting nine runs on the board against the struggling Indians. Minnesota is now 7-2 in Slowey's last nine trips to the hill.

It has been a nice change of fortune for the 24-year-old after he lost seven of his first nine starts to begin the season. Slowey has only been hit hard twice all year - that last outing against the Indians and back in early June when he allowed eight earned against the White Sox. Outside of those two blips and he hasn't given up more than four runs in a start all year. Plus, for a young kid, he has great control, piling up 60 strikeouts to just 11 walks.


Slumping

Jason Bergmann (1-6, 4.15)

Jason Bergmann probably wouldn't be today's slumping pitcher if he wasn't throwing for the futile Washington Nationals. He has allowed more than three earned runs in just three of his last nine outings, but hasn't registered a win since May 15. So he definitely isn't the whole problem here.

However, the longball hasn't been kind to Bergmann. He has allowed 13 jacks in 73 2/3 innings so far and he gave up 18 homers in just over 115 innings last season.
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VEGAS EXPERTS

Florida Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers
Thursday, July 10th, 10:10 PM ET

Chan Ho Park has looked good all season, whether it be as as starter or coming out of the bullpen. However, it's the starter's role that he's truly excelled in, posting an ERA of 1.29 in his first four outings. At home, his ERA is even lower (0.82) as he's allowed just 1 ER in 11 innings of work. He blanked the Angels, MLB's best road team, 6-0 here, so he should have little trouble with a Marlins team that swept earlier this year in Miami.

Play on: LA Dodgers
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GAMBLERS WORLD

Tip of the Day - July 10, 2008


Sport: MLB
Game: 7:07PM, Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Reason: The Baltimore Orioles will be fighting to snap a losing streak on Thursday when they take on the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.The Orioles will give the ball to ace starter Jeremy Guthrie in this one. Righthander Guthrie is 5-7 this season with a 3.61 ERA.
Starting this game for the Blue Jays will be John Parrish. The righthander has a 1.50 ERA to go along with a 1-0 record this season. Oddsmakers currently have the Blue Jays listed as 175-moneyline favorites versus the Orioles, while the game's total is sitting at 7.5

The Blue Jays scored seven runs in the fourth inning on, Wednesday as they held off the Orioles for a 9-8 victory. The Blue Jays won that game as -155 favorites, and the 17 runs sailed OVER the posted over/under (8.5).David Eckstein and Alex Rios drove in two runs apiece for the Blue Jays. A.J. Burnett improved to 9-8 with the win, and B.J. Ryan closed out the ninth for his 17th save.Adam Jones belted a three-run home run for the Orioles. Garrett Olson allowed seven runs over 3 2-3 innings in the loss.


Current streak:
Baltimore has lost 4 straight games.
Toronto has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Baltimore: 44-45 SU
Toronto: 44-47 SU


Baltimore most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 3-7
After playing Toronto are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5


Toronto most recently:
When playing on Thursday are 4-6
Before playing NY Yankees are 4-6
After playing Baltimore are 6-4
After a win are 4-6


A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Baltimore is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against
Toronto
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
 
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JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -128
(Listing Moyer and Looper)

In four career starts against the Cardinals, Jamie Moyer has been virtually un-hittable. Moyer is 2-0 with a miniscule 0.78 ERA against the Cardinals. Moyer allowed just 1 earned run in 12 innings pitched against St. Louis last year. Moyer is 47-19 at home when the total is 10 or higher since 1997. The Phillies are 35-15 at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 2 seasons. With Moyer?s success against the Cardinals throughout his career, it would be idiotic to bet against this veteran lefty tonight. Cash in with Moyer and the Phillies as the favorite.
 
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TOM FREESE

Game: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Jul 10 2008 8:10PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals

Reason: Kansas City is 6-1 in the last 7 home starts made by Zach Greinke at home and they are 5-0 their last 5 games vs. lefty starters. Greinke is 6-2 if he had a quality start in his last outing and he is in Awesome KW form with a 11-1 strikeout to walk in his last 3 starts. Chicago starter Mark Buehrle is just 4-13 in his last 17 July starts and the White Sox are just 5-13 the last 18 starts made by Buehrle on the road if the Total was 7.0 to 8.5. The Pale Hose are 2-6 the last 8 road starts made by Buehrle. PLAY ON KANSAS CITY (Greinke vs. Buehrle)
 
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WILD BILL

Thurs, July 10


St Louis +130 (5 units)
Reds +170 (5 units)
Arizona -150 (5 units)
Seattle +165 (5 units)
Tampa +110 (5 units)
Angels -145 (5 units)
Yankees -135 (5 units)
 
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Players of America

- STILL on fire. 3-1 last night. 10-2 last 12. 27-9 last 36.

- Season to Date - MLB
1* (10 units) 71-58
3* (30 units) 25-21
5* (50 units) 5-3
10* GOY (100 units) 1-0

YTD +532.2 Units

--------------------------------------------------------


Today's Selections

STL vs. PHI
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Play: Under 10.5
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


CIN vs. CHC
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
The Play: Cincinnati Reds +170.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A


TB vs. CLE
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Indians
The Play: Cleveland Indians +100.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup: N/A
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Chris James Sports

Comp Play
Brewers/Rockies Over 9.5

Today is the final game of a 4 game set between the Brewers and Rockies. The Brewers lost last night with their ace on the mound and have only put up 3 runs twice out of the first three games so far. Look for all that to change today. The Rockies send Jorge De La Rosa to the mound. He is 3-4 with a 6.58 ERA. Over his last three games he is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. He is giving up 17.2 hits/walks per nine innings pitched recently. Milwaukee counters with David Bush who is 4-8 on the year with a 4.74 ERA. He is pitched pretty well over the last 3 games but really struggle in his only start against Colorado this year. He is 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in his last start against the Rockies. The over is 6-1 in the Rockies last 7 games. The over is also 4-1 in the Rockies last 5 games where the total is set between 9-10.5. Also the Brewers have brought in alot of overs recently as the over is 6-1 in their last 7 games vs a left-handed starter. The over is 6-1 in Bush's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 5-2 in their Brewer's 7 overall. Let's cash this over early today on the Brewers/Rockies.​
 
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Frank Rosenthal

THURSDAY, JULY 10, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB
953 GIANTS UNDER 8.5 SB
957 REDS+160 SB
960 NATS+135 SB
961 FISH+135 SB
972 RANGERS+130 SB
UNDER 9.5 SB+
974 KC+105 SB
976 PIRATES+120 SB
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.
 
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Scott Spreitzer's 25* Pre-All Star GAME OF THE YEAR! *Day Action!
I'm laying the price with the Brewers on Thursday.

My Pre-All Star GOY is a play on the Brewers on Thursday afternoon. Thanks! GL! Scott.
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BOXER SPORTS THURSDAY'S PLAYS

YTD 194-193 +43.34*

Arizona Diamondbacks - D Haren -R @ Washington Nationals - J Bergmann -R
Play D-Backs/Nationals Under 7.5 -110 ( 3* )

Tampa Bay Rays - A Sonnanstine -R @ Cleveland Indians - A Laffey -L
909 Rays -101 ( 3* )

Chicago White Sox - M Buehrle -L @ Kansas City Royals - Z Greinke -R
973 White Sox -105 ( 3* )

He broke even money yesterday 1-1 so he gave me today's plays free
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SAPKOWSKI 108-62
Premium 57-31 L88, Yesterday 2-1 (MIL Brewers"L",PHI Phillies"W",HOU Astros"W")
BAL Orioles
LA Dodgers
Free picks 50-32 L80, 1-1 Yesterday (CHI Cubs"W",OAK Athletics"L")
CHI Cubs
DET Tigers


Premium picks last 3 days 7-1, all 7 went with -1,5RL
 
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KM Computer Plays

Top play
None

Medium plays
Oakland Athletics (M: -175.0) 3
Laa Angels Under 9.5 3

Regular plays
Chicago White Sox (M: -104.0) 1
New York Yankees (M: -134.0) 1
Arizona D-backs (M: -148.0) 1
Chicago White Sox Under 8.5 1
St Louis Cardinals Under 10.0 1

yesterday 8-6 (+6.0)
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