Dave Essler | MLB Money Line Thu, 06/09/16 - 10:10 PM
triple-dime bet 961 CLE (+105) Pinnacle vs 962 SEA Analysis:
PLAY: CLEVELAND INDIANS
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
There are better numbers right now. Also really want to take the Angels - but that'll have to wait. People will be on Seattle because Cleveland hasn't been hitting, which IMO is more a case of Walker and Miley being over powering. As far as Walker, he was clearly dominant, and Miley is a LHP - the Indians hit .259 with only 12 bombs against LHP. Against RHP they've launched 55 home runs. So, there's that and then there's Karns. He's actually the M's 5th starter and sits with a WHIP of 1.43 which is very pedestrian. He can occasionally get wild and walk people, as he did (5) against Texas last week and when Cleveland faced him earlier this season they got him for 5 runs (four earned) and four walks in a little over five innings. So, exposure, and Seattle actually won that game 10-7 so there's no SERIOUS revenge/adjustments. Tomlin is 8-1 and the Indians are 9-1 in games he's started, and on the road he's 4-0 with a WHIP of 0.867 - which is "Kershaw-like". That's not new, since over the last three years he's much better on the road - and two years ago he threw a 1 hit shutout at Seattle, so he ought to be comfortable. Seattle hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off of the ball - as they've only had double-digit hits twice in the last nine games. Even last night, were it not for Ianetta's two bombs - they don't look overly impressive offensively. Where IMO there IS a clear cut advantage is in the back end. Cleveland's pen has an ERA of 1.58 over the last week, which included games at KC and at Texas. They swept the Royals and scored a bunch of runs off that staff (which not many do) - so I go back to the beginning where the last two nights were just great Mariner pitching, which they're a lot less likely to get from Karns. If Karns were THAT good Washington wouldn't have traded him to the Rays and the Rays (anyone can pitch at the Trop) wouldn't have traded him to Seattle. The M's pen hasn't been terrific this season - but decent. However, at home they've got SIX blown saves and only FOUR saves. Seattle is still a game under .500 at home while the Indians are a game over .500 on the road. Yan Gomes and Jose Ramirez are listed as questionable -Ramirez was originally in the lineup last night and a late scratch, so I suspect he plays. Gomes SHOULD be ready after sitting out last night - if not, oh well. Ramiriez's replacement last night (Mike Martinez) had one of the three hits Walker gave up - and those two "maybes" are why the line moved - if they play, it comes back - but they don't need to for us to win, just like we were all of St. Louis last night without Matt Holiday. My other leans/bets:
Rockies
Reds RL
Reds OVER
Houston
triple-dime bet 961 CLE (+105) Pinnacle vs 962 SEA Analysis:
PLAY: CLEVELAND INDIANS
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
There are better numbers right now. Also really want to take the Angels - but that'll have to wait. People will be on Seattle because Cleveland hasn't been hitting, which IMO is more a case of Walker and Miley being over powering. As far as Walker, he was clearly dominant, and Miley is a LHP - the Indians hit .259 with only 12 bombs against LHP. Against RHP they've launched 55 home runs. So, there's that and then there's Karns. He's actually the M's 5th starter and sits with a WHIP of 1.43 which is very pedestrian. He can occasionally get wild and walk people, as he did (5) against Texas last week and when Cleveland faced him earlier this season they got him for 5 runs (four earned) and four walks in a little over five innings. So, exposure, and Seattle actually won that game 10-7 so there's no SERIOUS revenge/adjustments. Tomlin is 8-1 and the Indians are 9-1 in games he's started, and on the road he's 4-0 with a WHIP of 0.867 - which is "Kershaw-like". That's not new, since over the last three years he's much better on the road - and two years ago he threw a 1 hit shutout at Seattle, so he ought to be comfortable. Seattle hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off of the ball - as they've only had double-digit hits twice in the last nine games. Even last night, were it not for Ianetta's two bombs - they don't look overly impressive offensively. Where IMO there IS a clear cut advantage is in the back end. Cleveland's pen has an ERA of 1.58 over the last week, which included games at KC and at Texas. They swept the Royals and scored a bunch of runs off that staff (which not many do) - so I go back to the beginning where the last two nights were just great Mariner pitching, which they're a lot less likely to get from Karns. If Karns were THAT good Washington wouldn't have traded him to the Rays and the Rays (anyone can pitch at the Trop) wouldn't have traded him to Seattle. The M's pen hasn't been terrific this season - but decent. However, at home they've got SIX blown saves and only FOUR saves. Seattle is still a game under .500 at home while the Indians are a game over .500 on the road. Yan Gomes and Jose Ramirez are listed as questionable -Ramirez was originally in the lineup last night and a late scratch, so I suspect he plays. Gomes SHOULD be ready after sitting out last night - if not, oh well. Ramiriez's replacement last night (Mike Martinez) had one of the three hits Walker gave up - and those two "maybes" are why the line moved - if they play, it comes back - but they don't need to for us to win, just like we were all of St. Louis last night without Matt Holiday. My other leans/bets:
Rockies
Reds RL
Reds OVER
Houston
