Dave Essler
PLAY: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
I might suggest splitting this ML with the RL - or some books have +1 - which equates to the same thing. Why be greedy for the free (essentially) run for the home team. However, I expect the D-Backs to win the game and all I was waiting to see was how the Mets/Gee might fare in San Diego. Like the Fish last night, it's often times the eyeball test, and the Mets committed and early error, Gee walked one and hit one, and has thrown a fair amount of pitches early - so, I would expect them to use some bullpen sooner rather than later. Gee hadn't gone through the 6th inning in three of his five starts prior. I wanted this bet after Arizona came back to beat Atlanta - from a HUGE deficit, giving them more mojo heading into this game with New York. Arizona has simply been getting key hits from a lot of different people, and won today without Trumbo playing nor Goldschmidt getting a hit. Of course we have Harvey, who hasn't been right and I am seeing shades of Strasburg after the TJ surgery, perhaps. Let's not forget, it was a year-and-a-half before he threw a baseball - and he's thrown over 100 pitches in three of his last four games. Hellickson (see note re pitching change) CAN keep the ball on the ground - and my hesitation would have been the Arizona bullpen - but they've come around, sporting a 2.41 ERA over the last week. Heading into last night, the Mets were 8-16 on the road and had scored THE least amount of runs on the road of any team in baseball, they've hit only 18 jacks in 24 road games, and hit .229 as a team. Arizona gets about six extra hours in their own beds while the Mets travel into the night. I hope the roof IS open - because my guess is that heat will take an even bigger toll on the Mets. All we need is a reasonable outing from Hellickson, who the Mets haven't seen much of, and Arizona takes home another nice win. Anyone just on this $1 play - I lean to the Cubs (some spark after the Lake incident in Miami, the Cubs over (weather could be a factor), Philadelphia, and the Royals.
1:35PM EST -Pitching change - which is actually IMO for the better here. Robbie Ray is gong for the D-backs and simply don't like the Mets against a LHP. So, I am leaving it, or re-betting it as the case may be of you list pitchers (you should).The Mets have obviously never seen him and he held the Rockies to one run in six innings at Colorado earlier this season. The very fact that the total re-opened at less (vig) that it was before the change was announced is another great indicator. So, I will still split this bet and perhaps even add a F5 on Arizona here, assuming that perhaps Ray gets through the order twice - and a F5 under perhaps as well. I can't change the +125 so that's what it'll be graded on, but that's also about the most widely available number.