Craig Davis 75 Dime play
Thursday's Lineup
75 Dime play on the Chicago White Sox and Floyd over Atlanta and Lowe. Both scheduled starting pitcher must go for their respectiave teams or this play will be null and void. As I release this selectton at 8:00am Eastern, the White Sox are a -110 home favorite.
I absolutely love this afternoon affair between the White Sox and Braves, and I'm siding with the White Sox at home at a very reasonable price. Gavin Floyd vs. Derek Lowe at US Cellular Field and both must start or this play is void.
You might look at Floyd's overall record or his season ERA and wonder how in the world I can be so high on the White Sox... but I'm telling you this game sets up nicely for us this afternoon.
First off, the White Sox are the hottast team in baseball, having won 8 in a row, 10 of their last 11 and 13 of their last 16. They've taken the first two games of this series at home against two of Atlanta's best pitchers... Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson. So I'm supposed to expect the White Sox to be worried about Derek Lowe after they've already beaten those two? I don't think so.
Chicago is finally over .500 for the first time since the first week of April and I'm counting on them add to that number today because I have a ton of faith in Gavin Floyd and so should you. Don't look at Floyd's 2-7 record and don't look at his 5.20 ERA... I want you to focus on what he's done in his last three starts, including qualiaty starts in five of his last six outings.
Floyd also likes pitching during the day as opposed to in the evening... and he considers June his favorite month to pitch. For his career, Floyd is 20-7 in day games with a 3.76 ERA, including a 5-1 record over his last six daytime starts. At night Floyd is just 18-29 with a 5.15 ERA in 75 games started. As for June, well, let's just say he wishes it was June all the time.
In 17 career starts in the month of June, Floyd is 7-4 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP... not to mention the fact batters are hitting just .226 against him. That's 30 points better than any other month he pitches. He's off to a good start this June as well as he's allowed just one earned run in each of his last three starts for a 1.23 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Needless to say, Floyd is a GREAT pitcher to back right now... especially in this game.
Atlanta counters with Derek Lowe and his 4.77 season ERA. Lowe is 1-1 over his last three starts but has a 6.11 ERA to boot, including a 1.53 WHIP. His road ERA this season is 6.00, due in large part to the fact he's allowed 7 ERs in two of his last three road starts... so why would I think anything different would happen this afternooon?
Lowe is a better pitcher at night (3.72) than he is during the day (4.32) and his career numbers at US Cellular Field aren't anything to get excited about. He's 0-1 in 4 starts with a 4.50 ERA in 13 total appeartnces and today won't be any different.
The Braves are 6-13 in their last 19 games as a road dog, 6-17 in their last 23 games as an underdog no matter where the game is played, and 0-4 the last 4 times they were in danger of being swept in a three-game series. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a right-hander, 16-5 in their last 21 interleague home games, 9-3 in Floyd's last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 8-0 in Floyd's last 8 starts as an underdog (this is only relevant if the number continues in the direction it's currently going).
Way too many factors favoring the home team today and I believe the team with the best day-game record (16-8) in baseball gets it done again this afternoon.
Thursday's Lineup
75 Dime play on the Chicago White Sox and Floyd over Atlanta and Lowe. Both scheduled starting pitcher must go for their respectiave teams or this play will be null and void. As I release this selectton at 8:00am Eastern, the White Sox are a -110 home favorite.
I absolutely love this afternoon affair between the White Sox and Braves, and I'm siding with the White Sox at home at a very reasonable price. Gavin Floyd vs. Derek Lowe at US Cellular Field and both must start or this play is void.
You might look at Floyd's overall record or his season ERA and wonder how in the world I can be so high on the White Sox... but I'm telling you this game sets up nicely for us this afternoon.
First off, the White Sox are the hottast team in baseball, having won 8 in a row, 10 of their last 11 and 13 of their last 16. They've taken the first two games of this series at home against two of Atlanta's best pitchers... Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson. So I'm supposed to expect the White Sox to be worried about Derek Lowe after they've already beaten those two? I don't think so.
Chicago is finally over .500 for the first time since the first week of April and I'm counting on them add to that number today because I have a ton of faith in Gavin Floyd and so should you. Don't look at Floyd's 2-7 record and don't look at his 5.20 ERA... I want you to focus on what he's done in his last three starts, including qualiaty starts in five of his last six outings.
Floyd also likes pitching during the day as opposed to in the evening... and he considers June his favorite month to pitch. For his career, Floyd is 20-7 in day games with a 3.76 ERA, including a 5-1 record over his last six daytime starts. At night Floyd is just 18-29 with a 5.15 ERA in 75 games started. As for June, well, let's just say he wishes it was June all the time.
In 17 career starts in the month of June, Floyd is 7-4 with a 3.16 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP... not to mention the fact batters are hitting just .226 against him. That's 30 points better than any other month he pitches. He's off to a good start this June as well as he's allowed just one earned run in each of his last three starts for a 1.23 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Needless to say, Floyd is a GREAT pitcher to back right now... especially in this game.
Atlanta counters with Derek Lowe and his 4.77 season ERA. Lowe is 1-1 over his last three starts but has a 6.11 ERA to boot, including a 1.53 WHIP. His road ERA this season is 6.00, due in large part to the fact he's allowed 7 ERs in two of his last three road starts... so why would I think anything different would happen this afternooon?
Lowe is a better pitcher at night (3.72) than he is during the day (4.32) and his career numbers at US Cellular Field aren't anything to get excited about. He's 0-1 in 4 starts with a 4.50 ERA in 13 total appeartnces and today won't be any different.
The Braves are 6-13 in their last 19 games as a road dog, 6-17 in their last 23 games as an underdog no matter where the game is played, and 0-4 the last 4 times they were in danger of being swept in a three-game series. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 games vs. a right-hander, 16-5 in their last 21 interleague home games, 9-3 in Floyd's last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 8-0 in Floyd's last 8 starts as an underdog (this is only relevant if the number continues in the direction it's currently going).
Way too many factors favoring the home team today and I believe the team with the best day-game record (16-8) in baseball gets it done again this afternoon.
Pro Picks
from Tony Cross
Here are the Picks for 6/24
San Diego over Tampa Bay
Philly over Cleveland
Giants over Houston
Atlanta over White Sox
Minn over Milwaukee
Cubs over Seattle
Marlins over Baltimore
Cardinals over Toronto
Mets over Detroit
Texas over Pitt
Colorado over Angels
Angels over Dodgers
Note: We are making an important change to the way we are wagering.
When the odds are -200 or above we will be risking 1 unit as oppose to trying to win 1 unit.
For example in yesterdays Yankee game @ -200 odds we will now risk 1 unit to win .5 units as oppose to trying to win 1 unit and risk 2 units.
We find this a better choice then to give up the run and a half as a way to minimize losses.
Again this is only when the odds are GREATER then -200.
from Tony Cross
Here are the Picks for 6/24
San Diego over Tampa Bay
Philly over Cleveland
Giants over Houston
Atlanta over White Sox
Minn over Milwaukee
Cubs over Seattle
Marlins over Baltimore
Cardinals over Toronto
Mets over Detroit
Texas over Pitt
Colorado over Angels
Angels over Dodgers
Note: We are making an important change to the way we are wagering.
When the odds are -200 or above we will be risking 1 unit as oppose to trying to win 1 unit.
For example in yesterdays Yankee game @ -200 odds we will now risk 1 unit to win .5 units as oppose to trying to win 1 unit and risk 2 units.
We find this a better choice then to give up the run and a half as a way to minimize losses.
Again this is only when the odds are GREATER then -200.
JAMIE TURSINI
Red Sox at Rockies
Pick: Rockies -110
J.Hammel has been outstanding at home! He's 5-1 with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.24! Over his last 3 home starts he's been EXCELLENT! He's gone 22.2 innings and has allowed 0 ER's. D.Matsuzaka is making his first start since June 7th. I can't expect him to match Hammel at all
Red Sox at Rockies
Pick: Rockies -110
J.Hammel has been outstanding at home! He's 5-1 with an ERA of 2.80 and a WHIP of 1.24! Over his last 3 home starts he's been EXCELLENT! He's gone 22.2 innings and has allowed 0 ER's. D.Matsuzaka is making his first start since June 7th. I can't expect him to match Hammel at all
EASY BASEBALL BETTING
We went +1.92 units yesterday, hitting a couple of big dogs (+163 and a +229).
Blue Jays (+122) over Cardinals - The Cardinals swept through the first two games against the Blue Jays but was done against lefties. They average about a half a game better against lefties than they do against righties. After having faced lefties in two consecutive games, we expect their batters to be off balance today on the road against a "meaningless" interleague foe. With that said, their offensive projection is low today in our minds. The Cardinals may be 10-5 with Wainwright on the mound but would he be so good if going against a team trying to fend off being swept every game? Let alone his own team struggling offensively? Another good angle at play in today's game is the fact that the Blue Jays lost 1-0 yesterday. Teams that lose at this exact number tend to bounce back if in the proper position.
Red Sox (+106) over Rockies - The Red Sox have lost two straight games but are still 7-3L10. Momentum can be completely switched around in baseball but we are betting that it is not today. The Red Sox did score 6 runs yesterday and they have Matsuzaka on the mound today trying to fight to fend off being swept. The Red Sox are better than even money today.
Braves (-101) over White Sox - Again, we are going with another team looking to fight off being swept. No team wants to be swept because they know it sucks but they also know it takes this bad momentum into their next game. They would say a win can turn things around for them. When you look at interleague games, both teams are not necessarily all that excited to play each other as they would be in a divisional rivalry game. So any type of motivation advantage is golden for these types of games. Better for the Braves is that they will face a righty today instead of two lefties previous. Unlike the Cardinals, where we said they would be off balance in doing this, the Braves are better against righties so they would revel in getting to face one.
We went +1.92 units yesterday, hitting a couple of big dogs (+163 and a +229).
Blue Jays (+122) over Cardinals - The Cardinals swept through the first two games against the Blue Jays but was done against lefties. They average about a half a game better against lefties than they do against righties. After having faced lefties in two consecutive games, we expect their batters to be off balance today on the road against a "meaningless" interleague foe. With that said, their offensive projection is low today in our minds. The Cardinals may be 10-5 with Wainwright on the mound but would he be so good if going against a team trying to fend off being swept every game? Let alone his own team struggling offensively? Another good angle at play in today's game is the fact that the Blue Jays lost 1-0 yesterday. Teams that lose at this exact number tend to bounce back if in the proper position.
Red Sox (+106) over Rockies - The Red Sox have lost two straight games but are still 7-3L10. Momentum can be completely switched around in baseball but we are betting that it is not today. The Red Sox did score 6 runs yesterday and they have Matsuzaka on the mound today trying to fight to fend off being swept. The Red Sox are better than even money today.
Braves (-101) over White Sox - Again, we are going with another team looking to fight off being swept. No team wants to be swept because they know it sucks but they also know it takes this bad momentum into their next game. They would say a win can turn things around for them. When you look at interleague games, both teams are not necessarily all that excited to play each other as they would be in a divisional rivalry game. So any type of motivation advantage is golden for these types of games. Better for the Braves is that they will face a righty today instead of two lefties previous. Unlike the Cardinals, where we said they would be off balance in doing this, the Braves are better against righties so they would revel in getting to face one.
