Dr. Boob
Opinion – GOLDEN STATE (-5 ½) over Cleveland
06:05 PM Pacific, Rotation: 502
I think the line on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Golden State by 5.8 points based on playoff rotations. Cleveland has been more impressive in the playoffs but it’s unlikely that the Cavaliers will continue to make 43.4% of their 3-point shots as they have in 14 playoff games. Based on the distribution of 3-point shots taken by Cavs’ players I project Cleveland at 37.5% 3-point accuracy. The difference between 43.4% 3-point shooting and 37.5% 3-point shooting works out to 5.3 points per game. My variance adjusted playoff ratings would favor Golden State by 4.2 points in this game so there is a case to be made for the Cavaliers based on line value. I’ll assume the market has it right and will lean with Golden State based on the situation. Game 1 of the NBA Finals has seen the home team cover in 10 of the last 11 years and Cleveland applies to an 89-162-5 ATS playoff road dog situation that is 25-53 ATS in game 1 of a series, including 2-10 ATS in the Finals. Golden State, meanwhile, is now 29-11-1 ATS at home the last two seasons when not favored by more than 10 points and the Warriors are 35-11-1 ATS hosting a team coming off a win in their previous game.
From a match up perspective this will be an interesting series. Golden State is very good at exploiting a team’s defensive weakness and Cleveland’s most effective lineup during the playoffs includes Channing Frye and Kevin Love, who are a combined 67 for 137 (49%) from 3-point range in the playoffs. Golden State will abuse Frye and Love when the Warriors have the ball and that might force Tyronn Lue to go to a more defensive lineup – especially if Frye and Love cool down from 3-point range as expected. I can certainly envision a scenario where the Cavaliers win this series (i.e. if they keep making 43% of their 3-point shots) but I think Steve Kerr is likely to out coach Tyronn Lue.
I’ll lean with Golden State at -6 or less in game 1 based on the situation. With the total now lower, I now lean over 208 points or lower (my math projects 209 1/2 points).
Opinion – GOLDEN STATE (-5 ½) over Cleveland
06:05 PM Pacific, Rotation: 502
I think the line on this game is fair, as my ratings favor Golden State by 5.8 points based on playoff rotations. Cleveland has been more impressive in the playoffs but it’s unlikely that the Cavaliers will continue to make 43.4% of their 3-point shots as they have in 14 playoff games. Based on the distribution of 3-point shots taken by Cavs’ players I project Cleveland at 37.5% 3-point accuracy. The difference between 43.4% 3-point shooting and 37.5% 3-point shooting works out to 5.3 points per game. My variance adjusted playoff ratings would favor Golden State by 4.2 points in this game so there is a case to be made for the Cavaliers based on line value. I’ll assume the market has it right and will lean with Golden State based on the situation. Game 1 of the NBA Finals has seen the home team cover in 10 of the last 11 years and Cleveland applies to an 89-162-5 ATS playoff road dog situation that is 25-53 ATS in game 1 of a series, including 2-10 ATS in the Finals. Golden State, meanwhile, is now 29-11-1 ATS at home the last two seasons when not favored by more than 10 points and the Warriors are 35-11-1 ATS hosting a team coming off a win in their previous game.
From a match up perspective this will be an interesting series. Golden State is very good at exploiting a team’s defensive weakness and Cleveland’s most effective lineup during the playoffs includes Channing Frye and Kevin Love, who are a combined 67 for 137 (49%) from 3-point range in the playoffs. Golden State will abuse Frye and Love when the Warriors have the ball and that might force Tyronn Lue to go to a more defensive lineup – especially if Frye and Love cool down from 3-point range as expected. I can certainly envision a scenario where the Cavaliers win this series (i.e. if they keep making 43% of their 3-point shots) but I think Steve Kerr is likely to out coach Tyronn Lue.
I’ll lean with Golden State at -6 or less in game 1 based on the situation. With the total now lower, I now lean over 208 points or lower (my math projects 209 1/2 points).
