SPORTS WAGERS
Boston +7 over LOS ANGELES
To begin, let’s give big props to Jeff Van Gundy for his great commentary and sense of humor throughout these playoffs. He’s so great to listen to and makes the games extremely enjoyable to watch. This series has been so unpredictable from game to game that you’re really flipping a coin in terms of which team will cover. Both the C’s and the Lakers can look so tough one game and lay an egg the next. Having said that and based on the outcome of the last game, this line is simply too high. The Celtics have rebounded strong after every loss this playoff season and there’s no reason to expect anything different tonight. There’s no tomorrow for either side and there is just no way the Celtics will lay down the way they did in game six. They fell behind big time and subsequently starting throwing up low percentage three’s in an attempt to get back in it. What you’re more likely to see tonight is a methodical and sound performance from every player. Aside from Kobe and Gasol, no other Laker can be trusted to have a big game. Of course it could happen but the Celtics are much deeper, they play tremendous defense and again, they’ve made all the right adjustments after a loss. The 7 points offered just adds to that appeal and while the C’s could absolutely lose, chances are they stay well within this margin. Play: Boston +7 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.47 over CINCINNATI
The Dodgers are ripping this host apart and after winning the first two games by a combined score of 18-2, things surely don’t get tougher for them here. Cleveland, St, Louis and Kansas City have rocked Bronson Arroyo in three of his last five starts. His two good outings over that stretch came against PIT and WAS. He’s not having a bad year but Arroyo is consistent in that he will give up runs for sure and is more likely to give up four or five than two or three. With the way the Dodgers are swinging the bats at this park chances are good that they’ll score a whole bunch once again. Besides, the Reds are reeling, they’re fragile, this will be its 10th straight game at home and they could very much be looking forward to hitting the road and playing in Seattle this weekend. John Ely is coming off a couple of tough starts against Atlanta and the Angels, two of the hottest hitting squads in the league. Still, he’s only allowed three jacks all season in 56 IP and that’s nice to know when pitching at this park. He also throws strikes (13 walks all year) and that, too, is crucial for success at this venue. Ely has solid numbers right across the board and those impressive numbers are not limited to Dodger Stadium. On the road, Ely has yet to allow a single bomb and the league has hit just .222 off him. After each loss, winning the next game becomes more difficult and right now the Reds can’t wait to see the Mariners. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Oakland +1.09 over CHICAGO
Much has been said about Dallas Braden’s injuries the past few games but he was pushed back a couple of days because of elbow tendinitis and he says his ankle is fine. The point is, the A’s would not start him if he wasn’t feeling 100% and that’s all there is to it. Braden is a solid pitcher and should be raring and ready to go here against a very beatable team. Even with three poor outings in a row, Braden still has an ERA of 3.95 and a BAA of .259. He’s had no run support whatsoever and thus, the misleading 4-6 record. Fact is, Braden has outstanding control (14 walks and a 1.16 WHIP in 82 IP) and the Cubbies have never seen him before. The A’s lost last night but they faced a very tough Ryan Dempster and once again the Cubbies are overvalued here with Randy Wells going. Wells has been spiraling out of control after a solid April. Since April 25, his ERA has risen from 2.59 to the current 5.15. At Wrigley, Wells has allowed 45 hits in 32 frames for a BAA of .326. His BAA in two starts this month is .404. His home ERA is 6.47 and in his last four starts, the Cards, Astros and White Sox absolutely torched him. His only good start in recent memory came against the feeble Pirates. Wells is about as mentally fragile as a pitcher can be and once again the Cubbies are ripe as hell to be beat. Play: Oakland +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.16 over ATLANTA
James Shields has fallen on hard times recently with three poor outings in succession, however, one of those came at Texas and this guy has thrown too many gems this season to be overly concerned about it. Shields has a gem against the Yanks, not once but twice and against the Red Sox among a slew of others. He ranks seventh in the AL with 82 K’s and in 42 road innings he’s walked just 7 batters. His numbers are not great, his last three games have been disastrous and he’s facing a guy with outstanding numbers and an outstanding reputation in Tim Hudson. Why then, did the Braves open at such a short (-1.18) price? Oddsmakers are too sharp too make an error and they know Hudson (26 BPV, 3-0-5-2-4 PQS) is having a season that is unsustainable. A 2.43 ERA, close to two full runs below xERA of 4.16 is due in part to a depressed hit rate (24%) and inflated strand rate (82%). Unheard of ground ball rates (65%) and line drive rates (12%) have helped his season and he’s been pitching with huge leads on so many occasions. Fact is, he has just 36 K’s against 30 walks and he’s been perhaps the leagues most fortunate pitcher in that everything has been hit right at people. A big correction in his numbers is forthcoming and according to the line, the oddsmakers expect that correction to take place here. Play: Tampa Bay +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
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