jeff benton thursday
0-1 last night MINUS 30 dimes....30-38-3 MINUS 85 dimes since i started posting.
Thursday's Action 15 Dime: ORLANDO MAGIC
Magic
As someone who believes greatly in the NBA playoff “zigzag theory” I wanted to grab the points with the Hawks tonight, I really, really did. After all, the pointspread loser in Game 1 of both the Celtics-Cavs and Lakers-Jazz series came back to cover in Game 2.
But in the end, I couldn’t pull the trigger. I couldn’t pull the trigger because I just absolutely cannot get the images of that Game 1 rout out of my head. Not only did the Hawks lose by 43 points, they got outscored by 39 points in the second and third quarters (60-21).
Seriously, Game 1 was exactly as one-sided as the score indicates. Atlanta made just 28 field goals in 81 attempts, had 35 total rebounds and 24 personal fouls. Orlando made 44 field goals in 84 attempts, had 53 rebounds and 17 fouls. And with Dwight Howard (21 points, 12 rebounds) leading the way, the Magic outscored the Hawks 56-34 in the paint.
Now, it would be one thing if you could just dismiss Game 1 as a fluke. But there’s no way you can. That’s because the Magic have now defeated Atlanta seven times in the last eight meetings, and I’m talking both straight-up and against the number. In the last four meetings in Orlando, here were the final scores:
Orlando 114, Atlanta 71
Orlando 104, Atlanta 86
Orlando 113, Atlanta 81
Orlando 121, Atlanta 87
That’s four wins by an average – an AVERAGE! – of 31.8 points per game!
That’s not a trend, folks. That’s a major, major mismatch. Throw in a 17-point road victory in Atlanta in the first meeting this season, and the Magic’s four wins over the Hawks this year have been by margins of 17, 32, 18 and 43 points.
Guys, the Magic own Atlanta, and both teams know it. And watching the Hawks’ body language throughout Game 1, they looked like a team that’s resigned to a negative outcome. At the same time, the Magic are a team on a freaking mission. Don’t forget, while every other team that locked up its playoff seed rested starters in the final week of the regular season, Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy kept the pedal to the metal. As a result, the Magic come into this game having won a season-best 11 consecutive games, going 10-1 ATS (the only non-cover was a nine-point victory over Charlotte as a 10-point chalk in Game 1 of the opening round).
That 11-game winning streak includes eight double-digit routs, with wins by margins of 43, 15, 10, 14, 20, 15, 27 and 15 points.
Furthermore, since January 20, the Magic are 38-8, and of those 38 wins, 26 have been by 10 points or more!
Finally, consider this: The SU winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 18 meetings between these teams, and the SU winner is 24-1 ATS in the Hawks’ last 25 playoff games. What that means is if you pick the winner of this game, you’re almost certain to cash your ticket. Well, do you think Atlanta is going to recover from a 43-point deficit in 24 hours and score the upset tonight? Neither do I.
Lay the points as the motivated Magic remain perfect in the playoffs and run their winning streak to a dozen.