SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
TORONTO -1 +119 over Kansas City
The Royals were just swept at home by the Astros and were outscored in that three-game series, 21-5. The Royals offense remains dead last in the majors in home-runs and in extra-base hits. Now this putrid offense will face a knuckler that is quietly throwing as good as any pitcher in baseball. R.A. Dickey has elite numbers across the board over his past six starts. Over that span he’s pitched six full or more in every start and has allowed two runs or less in five of them. The only start over that span in which he allowed more than two runs was at Texas, where he allowed three runs. Dickey’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last six games is an elite 57%/8%/36%. Overall, he’s 5-1 at Rogers Center with an ERA of 2.89 and these reeling Royals don’t figure to do much, if any damage against him
The Blue Jays are coming off six games against two extremely tough pitching staffs in Oakland and Tampa Bay. Six wins later and now Toronto’s winning streak is at nine. Now this potent offense will see James Shields and his misleading 2.95 ERA. Shields’ has been tagged for 42 hits over his past 33 innings. An unsustainable 80% strand rate has kept his ERA in check. The Jays figure to cash some of those base-runners that his WHIP says he'll allow. Over his last five starts, Shields has a WHIP of 1.44 and that high mark should never coincide with an ERA under 3.00. Furthermore, because they are not winning or scoring runs, K.C's starters feel they have to be near perfect to win. That’s added pressure before they even throw the first pitch. Regression analysis is in play here against James Shields versus the hottest team in baseball.
Atlanta +104 over BOSTON
The struggles of 33-year-old Jake Peavy mirror the recent performance of the Red Sox. While Peavy posted a 2.87 ERA in four April starts, he’s scuffled in May, with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. Peavy's main problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his ERA will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years. Over his past 29 innings, Peavy has walked 12 and struck out 16. His groundball/fly-ball split is 41%/40% but his HR/f is 12%, meaning more balls are leaving the park. The drop in skills tells the story of Peavy's slide over the past couple of years. Until he stops issuing so many free passes, it’s unlikely he’ll contribute much to a Red Sox turnaround. It’s also worth noting that in six starts, Peavy has yet to win at Fenway this season, where he is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.42.
Mike Minor started the year on the DL so he was a step or two behind when he rejoined the club. He’s now started four games and he’s getting stronger. Minor has a BB/K split of 9/27 in 30 frames and has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. Last season, Minor built on his 2012 solid second half and zoomed into near-elite status. His control and K rate each took steps up, he broke the 200-IP barrier for the first time and reined in the HR's without the benefit of a lucky hr/f. Confidence in four pitches and perfect reliability make him a low-risk, high-reward investment and certainly a better one than Jake Peavy.
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MLB
TORONTO -1 +119 over Kansas City
The Royals were just swept at home by the Astros and were outscored in that three-game series, 21-5. The Royals offense remains dead last in the majors in home-runs and in extra-base hits. Now this putrid offense will face a knuckler that is quietly throwing as good as any pitcher in baseball. R.A. Dickey has elite numbers across the board over his past six starts. Over that span he’s pitched six full or more in every start and has allowed two runs or less in five of them. The only start over that span in which he allowed more than two runs was at Texas, where he allowed three runs. Dickey’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last six games is an elite 57%/8%/36%. Overall, he’s 5-1 at Rogers Center with an ERA of 2.89 and these reeling Royals don’t figure to do much, if any damage against him
The Blue Jays are coming off six games against two extremely tough pitching staffs in Oakland and Tampa Bay. Six wins later and now Toronto’s winning streak is at nine. Now this potent offense will see James Shields and his misleading 2.95 ERA. Shields’ has been tagged for 42 hits over his past 33 innings. An unsustainable 80% strand rate has kept his ERA in check. The Jays figure to cash some of those base-runners that his WHIP says he'll allow. Over his last five starts, Shields has a WHIP of 1.44 and that high mark should never coincide with an ERA under 3.00. Furthermore, because they are not winning or scoring runs, K.C's starters feel they have to be near perfect to win. That’s added pressure before they even throw the first pitch. Regression analysis is in play here against James Shields versus the hottest team in baseball.
Atlanta +104 over BOSTON
The struggles of 33-year-old Jake Peavy mirror the recent performance of the Red Sox. While Peavy posted a 2.87 ERA in four April starts, he’s scuffled in May, with a 6.59 ERA in five starts. Peavy's main problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his ERA will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years. Over his past 29 innings, Peavy has walked 12 and struck out 16. His groundball/fly-ball split is 41%/40% but his HR/f is 12%, meaning more balls are leaving the park. The drop in skills tells the story of Peavy's slide over the past couple of years. Until he stops issuing so many free passes, it’s unlikely he’ll contribute much to a Red Sox turnaround. It’s also worth noting that in six starts, Peavy has yet to win at Fenway this season, where he is 0-2 with an ERA of 4.42.
Mike Minor started the year on the DL so he was a step or two behind when he rejoined the club. He’s now started four games and he’s getting stronger. Minor has a BB/K split of 9/27 in 30 frames and has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. Last season, Minor built on his 2012 solid second half and zoomed into near-elite status. His control and K rate each took steps up, he broke the 200-IP barrier for the first time and reined in the HR's without the benefit of a lucky hr/f. Confidence in four pitches and perfect reliability make him a low-risk, high-reward investment and certainly a better one than Jake Peavy.
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