SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. LAKERS –7½ over Phoenix
Yes, the Suns have momentum indeed after two very impressive wins on its home court. However, they’re a different team in L.A., as all playoff teams seem to be and they just do not have the same confidence when they step on this floor. It’s almost as if they know they’re going to lose. Besides that, the Lakers have played awful in two games in Phoenix and now it’s time to step it up. You also cannot ignore the calls that will absolutely go the Lakers way in this game. The NBA needs the Lakers to go to the finals because a Lakers/Celtics final will draw about 30 times more viewers than the Suns/Celtics and an unimaginable Suns/Magic final would be a complete disaster for the league. What we do know is that the Lakers will have a game plan to counter the Suns effective zone defense in this pivotal game five. Don’t expect Phil Jackson to be knitting in his chair like he usually does, as this is now the most crucial game of the year for the Lakers. Expect the Lakers to ferociously attack the basket and with such a big edge in size, you can expect the Lakers to rebound strong as well. The Lakers have to win this game and the NBA will have it no other way. Play: L.A. Lakers –7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Washington +1.60 over SAN FRANCISCO
Note the 3:35 PM EST start. A big day at the plate for the Giants is scoring three times. A big day on the mound for Barry Zito is when he walks less than five and gives up less than five. Now the reeling Giants with no offense and a very ordinary pitcher are a –1.70 chalk? Are you kidding? First, the Giants have dropped six of seven and over that stretch they’ve scored 16 times. Throw out a game against the A’s in which they scored seven times and the Giants would have nine runs in six games. Over its last five games the Giants are batting .192 with an OBP of .250. Zito got off to a great start but he was lucky with an unsustainable high strand rate. In his last three starts he’s allowed 12 earned runs in 18.1 IP and the opposition was San Diego, Houston and Oakland. There might not be a worse hitting group than that aforementioned trio. Zito’s fastball tops off at 85MPH and his other three pitches are just as ordinary. This guy has zero appeal laying ridiculous juice. Craig Stammen isn’t much better but he’s not laying –1.70 and the Nats offense puts the Giants offense to shame. The Nats torched Tim Linecum yesterday and that feat alone instills more confidence. The Nats remain the most undervalued team in the league and win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it by a wide, wide margin. Big overlay. Play: Washington +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.22 over MILWAUKEE
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. With all due respect to the Astros, the Brewers might be the most pathetic team in the league. At least the Astros have some pitching and just like they do every year, they’ll very likely go on a sizzling run for about six weeks before fading away again. Anyway, if pitching has anything to do with the outcome of this game than the Astros have a huge edge in both the starting pitchers and the bullpen. Dave Bush (-23 BPV, 3-3-2-2-0 PQS) has walked 24 batters and struck out 24. That’s a problem. Bush has a WHIP of 1.76 and that, too, is a problem. He’s made nine starts this season and the Brewers are 1-8 in those starts. Bush had an ERA last year of 6.38. In two minor league starts last season his ERA was 9.95. This season his ERA at home is 6.75 and his BAA is .341 and his ERA in May is 7.27 with a BAA of .347. There’s nothing mysterious about Bush. He’s a horrible pitcher on a horrible team and while the Astros don’t have much appeal, the Brewers have way less with Bush on the hill laying a price. Brett Myers has great stuff and he’s looking better with each outing. He’s 2-1 over his last three starts with a 2.57 ERA and that includes a seven-inning, zero earned runs gem over the Rays. Incidentally, Myers is 4-1 with a 1.77 ERA in his career against the Brewers. Play: Houston +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.22 over CHICAGO
Note the 2:20 PM EST start. John Ely (132 BPV, 4-5-5-5-3 PQS) threw his first non-PQS-Dominant game of his career but still won the game against the Tigers, recording three Ks and one walk. That walk was out of character, as Ely went three straight games without issuing a walk and he now has just four walks in 31.2 IP. Ely has struck out 28 batters and has not allowed a single jack all year. In addition, the Cubbies have never seen this guy and that works in the Dodgers favor. The kid can pitch and should be extra amped up today pitching at historic Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly (40 BPV, 2-3-4-3-3 PQS) has lost his propensity for Ks in May with just 11 in 26.2 IP. While other metrics such as control and HR’s per 9 innings are on a decent pace, the loss of Ks is concerning and suggests the arthroscopic shoulder surgery recovery may be a work in progress. The Cubbies have won just two of Lilly’s six starts. So, what we get here is a pitcher that throws nothing but strikes and has great stuff with a tag facing about as ordinary a squad as there is. Play: Los Angeles +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
