OC Dooley ***Thursday AFTERNOON baseball***
2-UNITS on Reds +135 (MLB Network)
“2 UNIT” AFTERNOON UNDERDOG (Reds +135 at Braves in a 1:05 eastern start broadcast nationally on the MLB Network------------Leake versus Hanson):
“1 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV AFTERNOON BASEBALL TOTAL (Cubs at Phillies OVER 9 in a 1:05 eastern start broadcast on WGN-TV-------Dempster versus Blanton):
2-UNITS on Reds +135 (MLB Network)
“2 UNIT” AFTERNOON UNDERDOG (Reds +135 at Braves in a 1:05 eastern start broadcast nationally on the MLB Network------------Leake versus Hanson):
“1 UNIT” NATIONAL-TV AFTERNOON BASEBALL TOTAL (Cubs at Phillies OVER 9 in a 1:05 eastern start broadcast on WGN-TV-------Dempster versus Blanton):
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON –1½ +1.74 over NY Mets
You might all remember the Mets on a seven-game winning streak earlier to run its record to 13-9 and put them atop the division at the time. The Mets are now 19-22 so they’ve gone 6-13 since then and things aren’t about to change and here’s why. The Mets can’t hit and with runners in scoring position they’re pathetic. When they were winning it was because of a pitching staff that was extremely lucky in that they were allowing just 3.3 runs per game but they also had stranded 80.1% of runners. The league average is closer to 70%, and, historically, no pitcher and no team has ever demonstrated a clear ability to keep runners from coming around once they've already reached. And reaching, they do, as Mets pitchers lead the Majors in walks with 184 in 369 innings. Now in free-falling mode, the Mets will send out John Maine and his deserving 8.53 road ERA. In 39.2 IP overall, Maine has surrendered eight bombs and he’s walked 24 batters. Walking guys and serving up jacks is not a good combination and after the Nats faced him 10 days ago in New York, they’ll be even more ready this time around. The Nats also broke a losing streak with a win last night and this is a team to really watch, as they could get very hot and they want to win as badly as any team in the league. Luis Atilano is a risky proposition because of his inability to throw strikes but he does have nasty stuff and again, the Mets batters look like a “deer in the headlights” up there. So, this one is much more about playing on the Nats over the Mets than it is playing the starters and at this price it’s absolutely worth the risk. The Mets might have a great day and score two, three or four but the Nats might score eight, nine or more. Play: Washington –1½ +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.33 over NY YANKEES
This is without doubt the biggest overlay on the board today. The Yanks are banged up badly, the bullpen is completely gassed and ineffective and the Rays keep rolling along. On the rack for the Yanks are Jorge Posado, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Marcus Thames and Nick Swisher. The Rays are now 29-11 overall and they’re an incredible 16-4 on the road. James Shields (147 BPV, 3-5-5-4-5 PQS) has been dominant in his last four starts, recording 38 Ks in 29 innings with just two walks. Andy Pettitte is having a tremendous year, which is a shocker when you consider that he’s traditionally a very slow starter. Pettitte is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA but that simply cannot last. A low hit rate (26%), a high strand rate (84%) and a low 2.5% HR/flyball rate suggest a big correction is coming and who better than the Rays to make that correction. The Yanks are way overpriced here and at best, this one should be a pick-em and even then the Rays would still be a solid bet. Play: Tampa Bay +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.13 over MONTREAL
Why stop now? The glass slippers have come off and now the Canadiens are not only mentally in trouble but the Flyers have put doubt into the mind of Jaroslav Halak. So, as the series shifts to Montreal nothing has changed. Montreal has not scored a goal in either game while the Flyers are getting tremendous balance in its scoring. In that 3-0 win nine different players recorded a point. Claude Giroux has become as dangerous or more so than Daniel Briere, Mike Richards and Simon Gagne. The Flyers have outscored the Canadiens 9-0 and all they can talk about is needing to play better. So, while I’m not counting the Habs out of this game, they’re going to have to show more to warrant laying juice on them. Michael Leighton, not Halak is becoming one of the most remarkable stories in Stanley Cup history. He’s 4-0 and leads all playoff goalies in goals-against average (0.87) and save percentage (.969). The Flyers special teams are clicking with four power-play goals in eight chances and the penalty kill is a perfect 8 for 8. It’ll be crazy in Montreal tonight but so what. The Flyers have momentum, they have their foot on the throat of the Habs and they really didn’t even play that good in game two. They’ll play better tonight and they’ll likely win again. Play: Philadelphia +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON –1½ +1.74 over NY Mets
You might all remember the Mets on a seven-game winning streak earlier to run its record to 13-9 and put them atop the division at the time. The Mets are now 19-22 so they’ve gone 6-13 since then and things aren’t about to change and here’s why. The Mets can’t hit and with runners in scoring position they’re pathetic. When they were winning it was because of a pitching staff that was extremely lucky in that they were allowing just 3.3 runs per game but they also had stranded 80.1% of runners. The league average is closer to 70%, and, historically, no pitcher and no team has ever demonstrated a clear ability to keep runners from coming around once they've already reached. And reaching, they do, as Mets pitchers lead the Majors in walks with 184 in 369 innings. Now in free-falling mode, the Mets will send out John Maine and his deserving 8.53 road ERA. In 39.2 IP overall, Maine has surrendered eight bombs and he’s walked 24 batters. Walking guys and serving up jacks is not a good combination and after the Nats faced him 10 days ago in New York, they’ll be even more ready this time around. The Nats also broke a losing streak with a win last night and this is a team to really watch, as they could get very hot and they want to win as badly as any team in the league. Luis Atilano is a risky proposition because of his inability to throw strikes but he does have nasty stuff and again, the Mets batters look like a “deer in the headlights” up there. So, this one is much more about playing on the Nats over the Mets than it is playing the starters and at this price it’s absolutely worth the risk. The Mets might have a great day and score two, three or four but the Nats might score eight, nine or more. Play: Washington –1½ +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.33 over NY YANKEES
This is without doubt the biggest overlay on the board today. The Yanks are banged up badly, the bullpen is completely gassed and ineffective and the Rays keep rolling along. On the rack for the Yanks are Jorge Posado, Curtis Granderson, Nick Johnson, Marcus Thames and Nick Swisher. The Rays are now 29-11 overall and they’re an incredible 16-4 on the road. James Shields (147 BPV, 3-5-5-4-5 PQS) has been dominant in his last four starts, recording 38 Ks in 29 innings with just two walks. Andy Pettitte is having a tremendous year, which is a shocker when you consider that he’s traditionally a very slow starter. Pettitte is 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA but that simply cannot last. A low hit rate (26%), a high strand rate (84%) and a low 2.5% HR/flyball rate suggest a big correction is coming and who better than the Rays to make that correction. The Yanks are way overpriced here and at best, this one should be a pick-em and even then the Rays would still be a solid bet. Play: Tampa Bay +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.13 over MONTREAL
Why stop now? The glass slippers have come off and now the Canadiens are not only mentally in trouble but the Flyers have put doubt into the mind of Jaroslav Halak. So, as the series shifts to Montreal nothing has changed. Montreal has not scored a goal in either game while the Flyers are getting tremendous balance in its scoring. In that 3-0 win nine different players recorded a point. Claude Giroux has become as dangerous or more so than Daniel Briere, Mike Richards and Simon Gagne. The Flyers have outscored the Canadiens 9-0 and all they can talk about is needing to play better. So, while I’m not counting the Habs out of this game, they’re going to have to show more to warrant laying juice on them. Michael Leighton, not Halak is becoming one of the most remarkable stories in Stanley Cup history. He’s 4-0 and leads all playoff goalies in goals-against average (0.87) and save percentage (.969). The Flyers special teams are clicking with four power-play goals in eight chances and the penalty kill is a perfect 8 for 8. It’ll be crazy in Montreal tonight but so what. The Flyers have momentum, they have their foot on the throat of the Habs and they really didn’t even play that good in game two. They’ll play better tonight and they’ll likely win again. Play: Philadelphia +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE NUTS WHO PLAY COMPS:
COMPS!
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Tigers -115
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Angels +105
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Mariners over 7
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Red Sox -140
5. Gameday Network MLB - Dodgers over 7
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Indians over 9
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees -147
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Angels +105
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Mariners under 7
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rangers -150
11. John Morrison MLB - Red Sox -140
12. Tony Campone MLB - Tigers -115
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Phillies -135
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Yankees under 9
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees -147
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Braves -150
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Mariners over 7
18. NY Players Club MLB - Rockies under 6
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Braves -150
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Marlins +185
COMPS!
1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Tigers -115
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Angels +105
3. VegasSI.com MLB - Mariners over 7
4. SportsAction365.com MLB - Red Sox -140
5. Gameday Network MLB - Dodgers over 7
6. William E. Stockton MLB - Indians over 9
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Yankees -147
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Angels +105
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Mariners under 7
10. Vincent Pioli MLB - Rangers -150
11. John Morrison MLB - Red Sox -140
12. Tony Campone MLB - Tigers -115
13. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Phillies -135
14. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Yankees under 9
15. VIP Action MLB - Yankees -147
16. South Beach Sports MLB - Braves -150
17. Michigan Sports MLB - Mariners over 7
18. NY Players Club MLB - Rockies under 6
19. Charlies Sports MLB - Braves -150
20. Fred Callahan MLB - Marlins +185
GamblersWorld
Play On: Washington (-120)
Inside the Board Room:
John Maine will be the starting pitcher for the Mets on this day. Righthander Maine is 1-3 this season with a 6.13 ERA. Maine's opponent in this one will be Luis Atilano. The Nationals righthander has a 3.90 ERA to go along with a 3-0 record this season. Cristian Guzman had two hits and scored twice with one RBI to help the Nationals beat the Mets 5-3 on Wednesday. The Nationals won that game as -138 favorites, while the eight runs went UNDER the night's posted over/under (9). Drew Storen collected the win in relief for the Nationals, and Matt Capps closed out the game with his 15th save. Raul Valdes gave up the winning run and suffered the loss for the Mets, who were +118 underdogs.
Take the Nationals today!
Play On: Washington (-120)
Inside the Board Room:
John Maine will be the starting pitcher for the Mets on this day. Righthander Maine is 1-3 this season with a 6.13 ERA. Maine's opponent in this one will be Luis Atilano. The Nationals righthander has a 3.90 ERA to go along with a 3-0 record this season. Cristian Guzman had two hits and scored twice with one RBI to help the Nationals beat the Mets 5-3 on Wednesday. The Nationals won that game as -138 favorites, while the eight runs went UNDER the night's posted over/under (9). Drew Storen collected the win in relief for the Nationals, and Matt Capps closed out the game with his 15th save. Raul Valdes gave up the winning run and suffered the loss for the Mets, who were +118 underdogs.
Take the Nationals today!
GINA
New York Mets (19-22) at Washington Nationals (20-20)
(R) John Maine (1-3) vs. (R) Luis Atilano (3-0)
New York Mets have dropped the last six against Washington at Nationals Park and are just 5-14 away from home thus far this season. Go with the Nationals at home
New York’s right-hander John Maine is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERS in his last three starts and is 8-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 14 starts against the Nationals.
Washington’s right-hander Luis Atilano is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERS in his last three starts. The rookie in his first start versus the Mets, strike out five over 5 1/3 scoreless innings of a 3-2 victory in New York on May 10.
Washington Nationals -115
New York Mets (19-22) at Washington Nationals (20-20)
(R) John Maine (1-3) vs. (R) Luis Atilano (3-0)
New York Mets have dropped the last six against Washington at Nationals Park and are just 5-14 away from home thus far this season. Go with the Nationals at home
New York’s right-hander John Maine is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERS in his last three starts and is 8-4 with a 4.11 ERA in 14 starts against the Nationals.
Washington’s right-hander Luis Atilano is 1-0 with a 5.17 ERS in his last three starts. The rookie in his first start versus the Mets, strike out five over 5 1/3 scoreless innings of a 3-2 victory in New York on May 10.
Washington Nationals -115
Dwayne Bryant | MLB Money Line Thu, 05/20/10 - 1:05 PM ƒŠ
dime bet 954 PHI (-135) Bookmaker.com vs 953 CHC
Analysis:
Dempster & Blanton MUST START
The Phillies scored 12 runs Monday as Jimmy Rollins returned from the disabled list, but have been held to two runs and 11 hits over the past two games. I expect them to get the bats going this afternoon against Ryan Dempster. Dempster has very solid season numbers (3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .286 OBP), but he seems to be on a bit of a downward swing. Dempster owns a 4.71 ERA in his last three starts (2 against the Pirates & 1 vs. Cincy). He has also walked EIGHT batters in his last two starts, spanning 14 innings.
Several Phillies have hit Dempster well in their careers. Chase Utley is 6-for-9 with 2 walks & a double. Placido Polanco is 7-for-17 with 2 walks, 3 doubles & a triple. Shane Victorino is 3-for-8 with a double. Ryan Howard is 2-for-7 with a double & a homer. Jayson Werth is 2-for-7 with 2 double‹s. You get the picture.
Joe Blanton's numbers do not reflect just how well he has pitched lately. He has been rock solid for 5 innings, but something seems to happen in the 6th inning. I was at Citizens Bank Park on May 8th when Blanton faced the Braves and believe me when I say that he was pitching a whale of a game until the 6th inning. This will only be his 4th start since coming off the DL, so I expect him to keep getting stronger and he may very well push through that 6th-inning wall this afternoon. The only Cubs hitter who has had any real success against Blanton is Alfonso Soriano, who is 5-for-14 (.357 BA) with a walk, a double and a triple, but has also struck out 3 times.
We also have the edge in the bullpen. Philly's pen ERA (3.17) is a full run lower than Chicago's (4.18). And while the Phillies pen's ERA rises to 4.23 at home because they're in a hitter's park, the Cubs pen's ERA rises to 6.66 on the road. And if you look at the last three appearances for each reliever, the Cubs pen sports a 5.09 ERA, while the Phillies pen owns a 1.50 ERA.
Bottom line: Dempster may have the better season numbers, but Phillies hitters have done plenty of damage against him while Cubs hitters have been very quiet against Blanton with the exception of Soriano. We also have a nice edge in the bullpen. The Phillies bats have been silent the past two days, but past performance shows that we can expect them to wake up this afternoon against Dempster. Take Philadelphia/Blanton over Chicago/Dempster.
dime bet 954 PHI (-135) Bookmaker.com vs 953 CHC
Analysis:
Dempster & Blanton MUST START
The Phillies scored 12 runs Monday as Jimmy Rollins returned from the disabled list, but have been held to two runs and 11 hits over the past two games. I expect them to get the bats going this afternoon against Ryan Dempster. Dempster has very solid season numbers (3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, .286 OBP), but he seems to be on a bit of a downward swing. Dempster owns a 4.71 ERA in his last three starts (2 against the Pirates & 1 vs. Cincy). He has also walked EIGHT batters in his last two starts, spanning 14 innings.
Several Phillies have hit Dempster well in their careers. Chase Utley is 6-for-9 with 2 walks & a double. Placido Polanco is 7-for-17 with 2 walks, 3 doubles & a triple. Shane Victorino is 3-for-8 with a double. Ryan Howard is 2-for-7 with a double & a homer. Jayson Werth is 2-for-7 with 2 double‹s. You get the picture.
Joe Blanton's numbers do not reflect just how well he has pitched lately. He has been rock solid for 5 innings, but something seems to happen in the 6th inning. I was at Citizens Bank Park on May 8th when Blanton faced the Braves and believe me when I say that he was pitching a whale of a game until the 6th inning. This will only be his 4th start since coming off the DL, so I expect him to keep getting stronger and he may very well push through that 6th-inning wall this afternoon. The only Cubs hitter who has had any real success against Blanton is Alfonso Soriano, who is 5-for-14 (.357 BA) with a walk, a double and a triple, but has also struck out 3 times.
We also have the edge in the bullpen. Philly's pen ERA (3.17) is a full run lower than Chicago's (4.18). And while the Phillies pen's ERA rises to 4.23 at home because they're in a hitter's park, the Cubs pen's ERA rises to 6.66 on the road. And if you look at the last three appearances for each reliever, the Cubs pen sports a 5.09 ERA, while the Phillies pen owns a 1.50 ERA.
Bottom line: Dempster may have the better season numbers, but Phillies hitters have done plenty of damage against him while Cubs hitters have been very quiet against Blanton with the exception of Soriano. We also have a nice edge in the bullpen. The Phillies bats have been silent the past two days, but past performance shows that we can expect them to wake up this afternoon against Dempster. Take Philadelphia/Blanton over Chicago/Dempster.
Steam On-Line Guaranteed Selections
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Detroit w/Bonderman +100 3:35 EST
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Date: Thursday, May 20, 2010
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Texas w/Feldman -144 7:10 EST
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DIAMOND CONSENSUS BASEBALL EASY MONEYMAKER
Texas w/Feldman -144 7:10 EST
