Dave Cokin
Matchup: San Diego at San Francisco
Time: 3:45 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LATOS, M vs. (L) SANCHEZ, J
Play: San Diego (ML +147)
The Padres continue to be the big surprise team in the majors this season. The offense remains spotty, but this squad can flat out pitch it with anyone, and their bullpen has been outstanding. Mat Latos already shut down the Giants once, and he's off a brilliant performance against the Astros. The one negative on Latos is his poor record in day games, but it's a very small sample so I'm not going overboard on one pothole in his resume. Obviously, Jonathan Sanchez won't be easy to beat. He's very tough at home and Sanchez has been sharp, despite some gopher ball issues in his last start. The big key here is that road dogs looking to complete a sweep have been highly profitable so far this season, and I believe the trend is worth backing here at a pretty good price. I'll take the Padres to get the money again.
Matchup: San Diego at San Francisco
Time: 3:45 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: (R) LATOS, M vs. (L) SANCHEZ, J
Play: San Diego (ML +147)
The Padres continue to be the big surprise team in the majors this season. The offense remains spotty, but this squad can flat out pitch it with anyone, and their bullpen has been outstanding. Mat Latos already shut down the Giants once, and he's off a brilliant performance against the Astros. The one negative on Latos is his poor record in day games, but it's a very small sample so I'm not going overboard on one pothole in his resume. Obviously, Jonathan Sanchez won't be easy to beat. He's very tough at home and Sanchez has been sharp, despite some gopher ball issues in his last start. The big key here is that road dogs looking to complete a sweep have been highly profitable so far this season, and I believe the trend is worth backing here at a pretty good price. I'll take the Padres to get the money again.
James Patrick
Matchup: Cleveland at Boston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (195.5 -110)
Cavaliers vs. Celtics 8:00 p.m. est.
Here comes the Big Green Machine. Don't look now but the Big Three is healthy and they are starting to hit their stride for what appears to be a final run at an NBA Title with this group of players. Cleveland has played Over the Total at a (5-0-1) ATS rate in Thursday action and these teams are (7-2) ATS Over the Total in the past (9) meetings. Boston is Over the Total in (7-3) ATS of late and (9-3) ATS versus the Central Division while Cleveland is (13-3) ATS Over the Total their past (16) versus the NBA Atlantic Division. Boston has strangled the "The James Gang" as Cleveland is one of the league's most imbalanced teams with LeBron James and Mo Williams taking half of the teams shots and the Cavs must play their best play their best game of the season in Boston if they expect to e a say in the Eastern Conference this season. Celtics know their best option opportunity to advance is tonight in the Bank North Garden and we expect they will do their part in getting this game to go Over the Total. Cleveland has the gun to their heads and best deliver or get out the golf clubs.
3* #741 Cleveland - Boston Over the Total
Matchup: Cleveland at Boston
Time: 8:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Play: Over (195.5 -110)
Cavaliers vs. Celtics 8:00 p.m. est.
Here comes the Big Green Machine. Don't look now but the Big Three is healthy and they are starting to hit their stride for what appears to be a final run at an NBA Title with this group of players. Cleveland has played Over the Total at a (5-0-1) ATS rate in Thursday action and these teams are (7-2) ATS Over the Total in the past (9) meetings. Boston is Over the Total in (7-3) ATS of late and (9-3) ATS versus the Central Division while Cleveland is (13-3) ATS Over the Total their past (16) versus the NBA Atlantic Division. Boston has strangled the "The James Gang" as Cleveland is one of the league's most imbalanced teams with LeBron James and Mo Williams taking half of the teams shots and the Cavs must play their best play their best game of the season in Boston if they expect to e a say in the Eastern Conference this season. Celtics know their best option opportunity to advance is tonight in the Bank North Garden and we expect they will do their part in getting this game to go Over the Total. Cleveland has the gun to their heads and best deliver or get out the golf clubs.
3* #741 Cleveland - Boston Over the Total
Ferringo MLB 05-13-10
1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 San Francisco (-140) over San Diego (3:45 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #902 St. Louis (-1.5, -135) over Houston (1:40 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #908 Colorado (-1.5, +110) over Washington (8:40 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #911 N.Y. Yankees (-125) over Detroit (1 p.m.)
Toda's total
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 7.5 Houston at St. Louis (1:40 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Over 7.5 N.Y. Yankees at Detroit (1 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Oakland at Texas (2 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 San Francisco (-140) over San Diego (3:45 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #902 St. Louis (-1.5, -135) over Houston (1:40 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #908 Colorado (-1.5, +110) over Washington (8:40 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #911 N.Y. Yankees (-125) over Detroit (1 p.m.)
Toda's total
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 7.5 Houston at St. Louis (1:40 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Over 7.5 N.Y. Yankees at Detroit (1 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.5 Oakland at Texas (2 p.m.)
SPORTS WAGERS
TEXAS –1½ +1.20 over Oakland
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Man, you watch these A’s play and you shake your head and wonder how they’ve won 18 games and lost just 16. They’ve had some solid pitching but its offense resembles that of a minor-league team. Barton i9s hitting .297 and Sweeney is hitting .296 and after that you have a bunch of guys hitting between .200 and .255. Now this lame hitting line-up will face C.J. Wilson. Wilson has not had a PQS (see under these write-ups for an explanation of PQS and other terms used) under 3 in any of his six starts and let’s not forget where he’s pitched half of them. He has a BAA of .207, an ERA of 1.51 and he’s pitched into the sixth inning or longer is all of his starts. Wilson keeps the ball down, he works quickly and he’s been one of the most, if not the most reliable pitcher in the majors this season. Oakland made another lefty, Dave Holland, making his first start of the season, look like Sandy Koufax yesterday. Ben Sheets offers up nothing except a washed up arm and a big inning waiting to happen. Sheets is coming off a two-run, eight-strikeout effort against Tampa but so what. That game was in Oakland and when he wasn’t in pitcher-friendly Oakland in his previous two starts he yielded 17 earned runs on 19 hits in 7.1 innings. In three road starts covering 13 frames, Sheets has allowed 29 hits with five of those going yard. His BAA on the road is .446 and his ERA is over 13. It’s also worth noting that Oakland’s bullpen has been taxed quite a bit the last couple games (used for 11 IP and nearly 200 pitches over the last two games). The Rangers offense is enjoying a power surge at the moment and the team is winning. The A’s are ripe to get beat and they should get beat by a wide margin. Play: Texas –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets +1.16 over FLORIDA
Johan Santana (84 BPV, 5-4-5-0-4 PQS) draws a Marlins squad scuffling over the last seven days (.572 OPS) and with a subpar .708 mark against LHP. Not that he needs any help against a team he owns (.424 OPS, 35% SO rate, in 165 plate appearances). Uggla, Ross and Ramirez are a combined 7 for 55 (.127) against Santana. The Fish continue to make bad pitchers look good and they can’t do a damn thing against good one’s and Santana certainly qualifies. Josh Johnson is also a quality pitcher but the Mets offense is coming alive and they’re much preferred over the Marlins. This one could easily be decided in the late innings when both chuckers are gone and in that scenario the Mets are also preferred. The Marlins have lost six of its last eight games at home and they’re just 4-3 when Johnson starts. The Mets are 5-2 when Santana starts and in a game in which Florida has no edge whatsoever, the Mets with a tag gets the call. Play: NY Mets +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
TEXAS –1½ +1.20 over Oakland
Note the 2:05 PM EST start. Man, you watch these A’s play and you shake your head and wonder how they’ve won 18 games and lost just 16. They’ve had some solid pitching but its offense resembles that of a minor-league team. Barton i9s hitting .297 and Sweeney is hitting .296 and after that you have a bunch of guys hitting between .200 and .255. Now this lame hitting line-up will face C.J. Wilson. Wilson has not had a PQS (see under these write-ups for an explanation of PQS and other terms used) under 3 in any of his six starts and let’s not forget where he’s pitched half of them. He has a BAA of .207, an ERA of 1.51 and he’s pitched into the sixth inning or longer is all of his starts. Wilson keeps the ball down, he works quickly and he’s been one of the most, if not the most reliable pitcher in the majors this season. Oakland made another lefty, Dave Holland, making his first start of the season, look like Sandy Koufax yesterday. Ben Sheets offers up nothing except a washed up arm and a big inning waiting to happen. Sheets is coming off a two-run, eight-strikeout effort against Tampa but so what. That game was in Oakland and when he wasn’t in pitcher-friendly Oakland in his previous two starts he yielded 17 earned runs on 19 hits in 7.1 innings. In three road starts covering 13 frames, Sheets has allowed 29 hits with five of those going yard. His BAA on the road is .446 and his ERA is over 13. It’s also worth noting that Oakland’s bullpen has been taxed quite a bit the last couple games (used for 11 IP and nearly 200 pitches over the last two games). The Rangers offense is enjoying a power surge at the moment and the team is winning. The A’s are ripe to get beat and they should get beat by a wide margin. Play: Texas –1½ +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets +1.16 over FLORIDA
Johan Santana (84 BPV, 5-4-5-0-4 PQS) draws a Marlins squad scuffling over the last seven days (.572 OPS) and with a subpar .708 mark against LHP. Not that he needs any help against a team he owns (.424 OPS, 35% SO rate, in 165 plate appearances). Uggla, Ross and Ramirez are a combined 7 for 55 (.127) against Santana. The Fish continue to make bad pitchers look good and they can’t do a damn thing against good one’s and Santana certainly qualifies. Josh Johnson is also a quality pitcher but the Mets offense is coming alive and they’re much preferred over the Marlins. This one could easily be decided in the late innings when both chuckers are gone and in that scenario the Mets are also preferred. The Marlins have lost six of its last eight games at home and they’re just 4-3 when Johnson starts. The Mets are 5-2 when Santana starts and in a game in which Florida has no edge whatsoever, the Mets with a tag gets the call. Play: NY Mets +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
ASA's 10* MLB OVER OF THE WEEK - Thurs afternoon!
PLAY ON 10* Over the Total, Cleveland (Huff) vs. Kansas City (Greinke), Thursday at 2:10 PM EST In his last two starts spanning just over ten innings of work, David Huff has allowed 22 hits and nine runs. For the season Huff has only struck out one more batter than he has walked and opposing batters own a solid .271 batting average against him. While Huff has pitched fairly well at home, he has struggled on the road with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Hitters struggled against Huff in his first two starts of the season but in his last three outings he has resembled the pitcher that finished 2009 with a 5.61 ERA. Cleveland started out the season as a strong ‘under’ team but seven of the last nine games have gone ‘over’ for the Indians. After being held to two or fewer runs in five of the first seven games of the season, the Indians are starting to score runs, hitting at least three runs in ten of the last eleven games and scoring at least four runs in each of the last five games through Tuesday. Cleveland has scored 4.6 runs per game in the last week, while also allowing 5.4 runs per game in that span. Kansas City has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball despite a poor overall record. The Royals are batting .271 on the season and at home against left-handed pitching the Royals are hitting .310. The Royals have been a strong ‘over; team on the season, allowing nearly five runs per game and in the last week Kansas City has allowed over six runs per game. 9.5 runs per game are being scored at Kauffman Stadium this season with batters hitting .277 for the year. Kauffman actually has the highest ballpark OPS in the AL and the park has averaged two home runs per game. This game has a low total because 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Royals. While Greinke must be respected as one of the better pitchers in the league he has not been nearly as sharp so far this season. Greinke allowed just eleven home runs in 229 innings last season but he has already surrendered five this season. In his last start he allowed nine hits and four runs and it was the third time this season he had given up at least four runs, something he did just six times in 33 starts last season. Kansas City has also featured one of the worst bullpens in the AL with a 5.28 ERA. Look for higher than expected numbers in this afternoon game as this low total is not justified with the recent scoring of these teams.
PLAY ON 10* Over the Total, Cleveland (Huff) vs. Kansas City (Greinke), Thursday at 2:10 PM EST In his last two starts spanning just over ten innings of work, David Huff has allowed 22 hits and nine runs. For the season Huff has only struck out one more batter than he has walked and opposing batters own a solid .271 batting average against him. While Huff has pitched fairly well at home, he has struggled on the road with a 5.19 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. Hitters struggled against Huff in his first two starts of the season but in his last three outings he has resembled the pitcher that finished 2009 with a 5.61 ERA. Cleveland started out the season as a strong ‘under’ team but seven of the last nine games have gone ‘over’ for the Indians. After being held to two or fewer runs in five of the first seven games of the season, the Indians are starting to score runs, hitting at least three runs in ten of the last eleven games and scoring at least four runs in each of the last five games through Tuesday. Cleveland has scored 4.6 runs per game in the last week, while also allowing 5.4 runs per game in that span. Kansas City has been one of the better hitting teams in baseball despite a poor overall record. The Royals are batting .271 on the season and at home against left-handed pitching the Royals are hitting .310. The Royals have been a strong ‘over; team on the season, allowing nearly five runs per game and in the last week Kansas City has allowed over six runs per game. 9.5 runs per game are being scored at Kauffman Stadium this season with batters hitting .277 for the year. Kauffman actually has the highest ballpark OPS in the AL and the park has averaged two home runs per game. This game has a low total because 2009 Cy Young winner Zack Greinke is on the mound for the Royals. While Greinke must be respected as one of the better pitchers in the league he has not been nearly as sharp so far this season. Greinke allowed just eleven home runs in 229 innings last season but he has already surrendered five this season. In his last start he allowed nine hits and four runs and it was the third time this season he had given up at least four runs, something he did just six times in 33 starts last season. Kansas City has also featured one of the worst bullpens in the AL with a 5.28 ERA. Look for higher than expected numbers in this afternoon game as this low total is not justified with the recent scoring of these teams.
