StatSystemsSports.net
Inside the Paint- Thursday
NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The Washington Wizards made quick work of the Chicago Bulls in the opening round of the National Basketball Association Playoffs, cashing in as a +165 series underdog with a 75-69 win in Game #5 Tuesday. That payday pales in comparison to the possible bounty on a Wizards NBA Championship run. Washington opened as a 100/1 long shot to win the title way back in June 2013 and remained at that price until March, when it was trimmed to 60/1. The Wizards jumped back to 100/1 at the start of the NBA Playoffs, finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference and drawing the Bulls in the first round.
According to books online and Las Vegas, next to nothing was wagered on Washington to win the NBA Championship during the season. But interest has peaked since the Wizards’ five-game series trouncing of Chicago. “We have seen a bit of money come in on them after their Game #1 win over the Bulls, but since then the odds have really come down on the Wizards for many reasons,” Peter Childs, of Sportsbook.ag, tells StatSystemsSports.net.
Childs, who is currently dealing Washington at +2,500 to win the title (same as Portland, Memphis and ahead of Brooklyn +3,000 and Indiana +3,500), says the Wizards’ current level of play is impressing both books and bettors and they have the inside track to the conference final in the East, taking on either struggling Indiana or sub-.500 Atlanta in the next round. Another reason why Washington could be a steal to win the NBA title is its track record against the reigning NBA champs, the Miami Heat. The Wizards were a thorn in the side of Miami, blowing out LeBron & Co. twice at home and going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Heat this season.
“They have size which always gives the Heat problems, but their quick and athletic guards should find success against an aging Heat team,” says Childs. “The Wizards, in my opinion, are legit contenders and we honestly recognized that early in the playoffs and have kept their odds to win low for that reason.” Washington is currently the second favorite, behind Miami (-400), to win the Eastern Conference at +800.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
•Pacers are now 8-12 in last 20 games, 8-27-1 against spread (22.8%) in last 36, as they head south to stay alive in series. Indiana is 4-5 versus Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won nine of last thirteen games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game #4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was 14-25 in Game #5, after being 15-50 from floor in games #3 and #4- they were +50 for game. Pacers' bench was 9-21 last game, a combined -31. Three of last four series games stayed under.
•Last four Grizzlies-Thunder games went overtime, after OKC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at half lost four of five series games. Both Thunder wins stayed under total; three Memphis wins went over. Oklahoma City is 34-117 from arc in last four games, shooting under 40% from floor in all four games- six of their last nine games went over. Grizzlies led Thunder by 12 last game, was +8 in OT (9-17). Three of last four series games went over the total.
•Clippers outscored Golden State 31-13 on foul line in Game #5 win, and it would've been worse had Jordan not missed eight (9-17) FTs. He had 25 points, 18 boards after going scoreless in Game #4. Clippers won 10 of last 15 games, with 12 of those 15 going over total. Warriors won seven of last 12 games overall; under is 48-37 in their games this year, 23-18 at home. Curry was held to 17 points Tuesday after having 33 in Game #4. Warrior bench was 8-22 last game, after making 12-18 in Sunday's win.
Hoop Trends - Thursday
•INDIANA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 95.0, OPPONENT 94.6.
•LA CLIPPERS are 22-7 OVER (+14.3 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 110.4, OPPONENT 107.0.
•INDIANA is 2-18 (-17.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 44.0, OPPONENT 48.4.
•INDIANA is 51-23 UNDER (+25.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 46.5, OPPONENT 46.6.
•DAVID JOERGER is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers as the coach of MEMPHIS.
The average score was JOERGER 94.1, OPPONENT 96.8.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(27-2 since 1996.) (93.1%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -140
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 97.1 (Average point differential = +7.8)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
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