Service Plays Thursday 5/1/14

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DIAMOND DOG SPORTS


2.5* #961: Blue Jays: -105
Listed Pitcher: Buehrle / Guthrie


2* #951/952: Under Marlins: 7.0 -115
Listed Pitcher: Santana / Alvarez


1* #961/962: Over Royals: 8.5 -105
Listed Pitcher: Buehrle / Guthrie
 

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
THURSDAY, MAY 1st 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 5/1/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
•Hot Pitchers
-- Santana is 3-0, 1.95 in four starts this season. Alvarez is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three outings.
-- Estrada is 1-0, 2.63 in his last two starts.
-- Colon is 1-1, 2.57 in his last couple starts.

-- Peavy is 1-0, 2.87 in five starts this season.
-- Buehrle is 4-1, 2.43 in five starts this season.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season. Cumpton allowed two runs in seven IP in his first '14 start.
-- Haren is 3-0, 3.77 in five starts this season. Beckett is 0-0, 1.00 in his last three outings.

•Cold Pitchers
-- Bailey is 1-2, 6.15 in five starts this season.
-- Nicasio is 0-1, 9.64 in his last couple starts.

-- Kuroda is 1-1, 8.10 in his last three starts. Elias is 0-1, 7.15 in his last two.
-- Archer is 0-1, 5.50 in three road starts this season. Doubront is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.
-- Guthrie is 0-1, 4.66 in his last three starts.

-- Norris is 1-2, 4.44 in four starts this season. Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- KJohnson allowed five runs in two IP in his only MLB start, for the Pirates last year against St Louis. He is 2-2, 2.86 in four AAA starts this season.

•Totals
-- Six of last nine Atlanta games stayed under.
-- Nine of last ten Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Mets' last eight road games.

-- Seven of last ten New York home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Boston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Toronto games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Minnesota games went over.

•Hot Teams
-- Mets won seven of their last nine games. Colorado won ten of their last fifteen games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 17 games. Miami is 10-4 at home.
-- Reds won four of its last six home games. Milwaukee won nine of their last twelve games.

-- Yankees won six of its last eight home games.
-- Red Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Royals won eight of its eleven home games.

-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Twins won six of its last nine home games.

•Cold Teams
-- Mariners lost six of their last seven away games.
-- Rays lost seven of its last eight away games.
-- Blue Jays lost six of their last seven games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last eight games.

•Umpires Trends
-- Atl-Mia-- Four of last five Culbreth games stayed under.

-- Sea-NY-- Favorites won all five Miller games.
-- TB-Bos-- Underdogs won four of five Bucknor games. Four of six HGibson games went over the total.
-- Tor-KC-- All four Wegner games stayed under total.

-- LA-Minn-- Favorites won five of six Timmons games. All three Johnson games went over total.

Diamond Trends - Thursday
•PITTSBURGH is 8-0 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in road games versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 5.9, OPPONENT 3.4.

•BOSTON is 11-0 OVER (+11.3 Units) with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 7.00 the last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 8.3, OPPONENT 4.7.

•TAMPA BAY is 0-12 (-14.9 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.4, OPPONENT 5.7.

•BARTOLO COLON is 14-1 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus National League teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season since 1997.
The average score was COLON 5.5, OPPONENT 3.0.

•MARK BUEHRLE is 17-3 UNDER (+13.4 Units) versus an American League team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BUEHRLE 4.0, OPPONENT 3.3.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TAMPA BAY) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a below average starting pitcher (ERA=5.70 to 6.20) -American League, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game.
(34-12 since 1997.) (73.9%, +28 units. Rating = 4*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (33-13)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.3, money line price: +118
The average score in these games was: Team 5.8, Opponent 4.3 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 26 (56.5% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1, +10.1 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1, +13.4 units).
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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NBA | INDIANA at ATLANTA
Play Over – Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
50-21 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.4% | 26.9 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )

NBA | INDIANA at ATLANTA
Play Against – Home underdogs vs. the money line (ATLANTA) a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more
58-18 since 1997. ( 76.3% | 31.9 units )
6-4 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.3 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at MEMPHIS
Play Under – All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points good shooting team – shooting >=46% on the season against opponent after 5 straight games – allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less
229-142 since 1997. ( 61.7% | 72.8 units )
8-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 8.0 units )
 
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StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | ATLANTA at MIAMI
Play On – Any team (ATLANTA) very bad NL offensive team (<=3.8 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games
31-15 since 1997. ( 67.4% | 23.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | NY METS at COLORADO
NY METS are 43-28 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in Road games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.9)
 

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Inside the Paint- Thursday


NBA Playoffs Betting News & Notes
The Washington Wizards made quick work of the Chicago Bulls in the opening round of the National Basketball Association Playoffs, cashing in as a +165 series underdog with a 75-69 win in Game #5 Tuesday. That payday pales in comparison to the possible bounty on a Wizards NBA Championship run. Washington opened as a 100/1 long shot to win the title way back in June 2013 and remained at that price until March, when it was trimmed to 60/1. The Wizards jumped back to 100/1 at the start of the NBA Playoffs, finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference and drawing the Bulls in the first round.

According to books online and Las Vegas, next to nothing was wagered on Washington to win the NBA Championship during the season. But interest has peaked since the Wizards’ five-game series trouncing of Chicago. “We have seen a bit of money come in on them after their Game #1 win over the Bulls, but since then the odds have really come down on the Wizards for many reasons,” Peter Childs, of Sportsbook.ag, tells StatSystemsSports.net.

Childs, who is currently dealing Washington at +2,500 to win the title (same as Portland, Memphis and ahead of Brooklyn +3,000 and Indiana +3,500), says the Wizards’ current level of play is impressing both books and bettors and they have the inside track to the conference final in the East, taking on either struggling Indiana or sub-.500 Atlanta in the next round. Another reason why Washington could be a steal to win the NBA title is its track record against the reigning NBA champs, the Miami Heat. The Wizards were a thorn in the side of Miami, blowing out LeBron & Co. twice at home and going 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Heat this season.

“They have size which always gives the Heat problems, but their quick and athletic guards should find success against an aging Heat team,” says Childs. “The Wizards, in my opinion, are legit contenders and we honestly recognized that early in the playoffs and have kept their odds to win low for that reason.” Washington is currently the second favorite, behind Miami (-400), to win the Eastern Conference at +800.
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Betting Notes - Thursday
•Pacers are now 8-12 in last 20 games, 8-27-1 against spread (22.8%) in last 36, as they head south to stay alive in series. Indiana is 4-5 versus Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won nine of last thirteen games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game #4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was 14-25 in Game #5, after being 15-50 from floor in games #3 and #4- they were +50 for game. Pacers' bench was 9-21 last game, a combined -31. Three of last four series games stayed under.

•Last four Grizzlies-Thunder games went overtime, after OKC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at half lost four of five series games. Both Thunder wins stayed under total; three Memphis wins went over. Oklahoma City is 34-117 from arc in last four games, shooting under 40% from floor in all four games- six of their last nine games went over. Grizzlies led Thunder by 12 last game, was +8 in OT (9-17). Three of last four series games went over the total.

•Clippers outscored Golden State 31-13 on foul line in Game #5 win, and it would've been worse had Jordan not missed eight (9-17) FTs. He had 25 points, 18 boards after going scoreless in Game #4. Clippers won 10 of last 15 games, with 12 of those 15 going over total. Warriors won seven of last 12 games overall; under is 48-37 in their games this year, 23-18 at home. Curry was held to 17 points Tuesday after having 33 in Game #4. Warrior bench was 8-22 last game, after making 12-18 in Sunday's win.

Hoop Trends - Thursday
•INDIANA is 12-29 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 95.0, OPPONENT 94.6.

•LA CLIPPERS are 22-7 OVER (+14.3 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=23 assists/game this season.
The average score was LA CLIPPERS 110.4, OPPONENT 107.0.

•INDIANA is 2-18 (-17.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 44.0, OPPONENT 48.4.

•INDIANA is 51-23 UNDER (+25.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 46.5, OPPONENT 46.6.

•DAVID JOERGER is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers as the coach of MEMPHIS.
The average score was JOERGER 94.1, OPPONENT 96.8.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.
(27-2 since 1996.) (93.1%, +24.2 units. Rating = 4*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -140
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 97.1 (Average point differential = +7.8)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-0, +5 units).
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XpertPicks

THURSDAY


  • Play Los Angeles Clippers -1 over Golden State (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
    10:30 PM EST

Los Angeles has won 28 of the last 39 games after scoring 110 points or more in their last game and they have also won 17 of the last 19 games coming off a division home win.Los Angeles has won 18 of the last 29 games when playing as a road favorite and they are averaging 110 points over the last five games.



  • Play Atlanta +1 over Indiana (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
  • Play Oklahoma City -2.5 over Memphis (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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NHL HOCKEY


  • Play Montreal +185 over Boston (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
 

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL



  • Play Los Angeles Dodgers -130 over Minnesota GAME 1----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
    1:10 PM EST

Minnesota has lost 33 of the last 57 games when playing in the month of May and they have also lost 23 of the last 38 games when playing on a Thursday. Minnesota has lost 77 of the last 135 day games and they have lost 49 of the last 80 games coming off a loss by two runs or more.



  • Play Boston -140 over Tampa Bay GAME 1----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
    1:10 PM EST

Boston has won 68 of the last 119 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers and they have won 99 of the last 176 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game. Boston pitcher, Jake Peavy has won 12 of the last 18 day games and he has won 18 of the last 27 home games.

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  • Play NY Yankees +125 over Seattle---RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  • Play Miami +125 over Atlanta----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

 

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FantasySportsGametime

THURSDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play LA Clippers -1 over Golden State (NBA TOP PLAY)
10:30 PM EST

Los Angeles has won 52 of the last 68 games when playing as a favorite and they have also won 51 of the last 71 games when the total posted is greater than 200 points.Los Angeles has won 36 of the last 57 games when playing four or less games in ten days and they have won 24 of the last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in two of the last three games.

50* Play Atlanta +1 over Indiana (NBA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oklahoma City -2.5 over Memphis (NBA BONUS PLAY)


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NHL HOCKEY


50* Play Montreal +185 over Boston (NHL BONUS PLAY)
 

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MLB Baseball

1000* Play NY Yankees +130 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Seattle has lost 46 of the last 79 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and they have lost 20 of the last 32 games when playing on a Thursday.Seattle has lost 31 of the last 55 games when playing in the month of May and they have lost 98 of the last 172 games coming off an OVER the total in their last game.

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50* Play Toronto +100 over Kansas City (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Miami +130 over Atlanta (MLB BONUS PLAY)
 

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BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Atlanta +1 over Indiana (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Oklahoma City -2.5 over Memphis (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Los Angeles Clippers -1 over Golden State (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Montreal +185 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)

 

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THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Pittsburgh +130 over Baltimore GAME 1 (MLB TOP PLAY)
Pittsburgh is 20-9 when playing on a Tuesday the last two seasons
Pittsburgh is 15-5 in inter-league games the last two seasons
Pittsburgh is 24-14 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs


10* Play Miami +115 over Atlanta (MLB TOP PLAY)

Ervin Santana is 0-2 vs. Miami over his career with an ERA of 6.58
Ervin Santana is 3-8 when pitching in the month of May
Ervin Santa is 7-12 in road games when the line posted is between +125 to -125


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5* Play Milwaukee +110 over Cincinnati (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Toronto +100 over Kansas City (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
 

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Xpert Picks, Fantasy Sports Gametime, & Beat Your Bookie all seem to have the same picks every day. Does anyone know if they are the same capper marketing themselves as three different ones? I have tried to PM the poster but I have never received an answer. Just seems strange and all three websites look pretty crappy. Mom's basement operation? Anyone have any info on these three?
 

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I would say they are at least all in the same group. They have never, to my knowledge, been on opposite sides of a game.
 
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EZWINNERS

4 STAR ML PARLAY SELECTION: (521) Indiana Pacers -$115 & (525) Oklahoma City Thunder -$145
(Risking $400 to win $864)

2 STAR SELECTION: (952) Miami Marlins +$105
(Risking $200 to win $210)
(Action)

2 STAR SELECTION: (953) Milwaukee Brewers +$100
(Risking $200 to win $200)
(Action)
 

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