SPORTS WAGERS
NY Mets +100 over WASHINGTON
The Mets have won six in a row and they’ve scored 39 runs over that span. That alone makes them worthy of a bet but it gets better. The Nats are batting a league low .188 against lefties and will face one here in Chris Capuano. Pay no attention to Capuano’s 5.95 ERA, as he’s made just three starts on the year. Pay a lot more attention to his history and his last start in which he went seven full and allowed just six hits and one earned run. Capuano made it all the way back from two Tommy John surgeries and fully reclaimed his prior skills in second half last season. In 19 innings this year he’s walked just six and struck out 17. His strand percentage of 63% is low and thus, the inflated ERA. As long as he stays healthy, Capuano has the stuff to win a lot of games this year and there’s nothing to suggest he’s laboring. Livan Hernandez needs no introduction. He’s been around for what seems like forever. There are just too many red flags in his arsenal to trust him throwing a good game. His BB/SO ratio is weak (9/15). His GB/FB ratio of 39%/48% is also weak and his strand percentage of 74% is very likely headed in the wrong direction. Hernandez's 2010 season is a case study for what's possible for a pitcher with below-average skills when everything goes right. His ability to avoid HRs over the past two years is baffling and no matter what happens in this game, we’re going with the best of it here by a country mile. Play: N.Y. Mets +100 (Risking 2 units).
San Francisco +106 over PITTSBURGH Pinnacle
Jeff Karstens is a starter turned reliever turned starter. He’s never been able to establish or solidify any role in the majors and he has the career numbers to prove it. 52 of his 94 major-league appearances in his career have been as a starter. Overall in his career, he has an ERA of 5.02, a WHIP of 1.44 and a BAA of .288. This year he’s started two games and appeared in relief in three games. In his two starts, he’s allowed three bombs and seven earned runs in 10.1 innings. Everything is right on line to match his career numbers. That is, he’s ineffective as a starter and reliever. History of too many HR and DL days and not enough Ks and groundball moves us right along. The Pirates are favored here because the Giants starter has shown very little or even less than Karstens. The lack of any recent track record in the majors makes having any faith whatsoever in Vogelsong difficult, but, for what it is worth, he followed up a good spring with two strong starts at Triple-A Fresno (2-0, 1.59 ERA, 17 K in 11 1/3 IP) before being called up. In two relief appearances and that includes 3.1 innings of relief against Atlanta, Vogelsong has yet to give up a run or walk a batter. While we recognize that this is not a matchup of Cy Young candidates, we must also consider that the Pirates are perennial losers. They’ve struck out a combined 195 times, which is second worst to the Padres 204. They’re a poor favorite at any time and you can enhance that sentiment with Karstens on the hill. Play: San Francisco +106 (Risking 2 units).
CHICAGO –106 over Arizona
Barry Enright went 6-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 99 IP last season for the D-Backs. Most of his first half was spent in AA and his low strikeout rate/high fly-ball profile makes him the perfect rooting target when you wager against him and power hitters are due up. Enright was a disaster waiting to happen last year and nothing has changed this season. His fly-ball/ground ball rate is 50%/35%. His ERA of 6.65 is about where it should have been last season. In four starts covering just 23 frames, Enright has allowed 32 hits, five jacks, has a WHIP of 1.70, and a BAA of .340. The Cubs are a small favorite here because Ryan Dempster has an ERA of 7.63. With some pitchers you can ignore small sample sizes when they’ve been an established pitcher for years and Dempster absolutely fits into that category. His xERA this season is 4.12, which is more than three runs lower than his actual ERA. An extremely low 57% strand rate is going to dramatically rise and thus the ERA will come down. Dempster has produced three consecutive solid seasons with nearly identical solid skills, marking him as one of the game's most consistent hurlers. Everything is stable about Dempster and now because of a unlucky start to the year, we get tremendously high value on him at home against a far inferior pitcher and team. Play: Chicago –105 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Toronto +143 over TEXAS
2:05 PM EST. Brandon Morrow has the potential and skills to be among the elite pitchers in the game. He’s off to a late start this season and that allows him to fly under the radar for at least a couple of starts. Last season, Morrow struck out 178 batters in 146 innings. He’s made one start this season and struck out 10 Rays in 5.1 frames. Outside of Toronto, he’s the majors best kept secret and his stock could soar at any time. The Jays won the first two games of this series and scored 16 times before losing last night but still tallied another six runs. That’s 22 runs in three games and now they’ll face rookie Alexi Ogando. Ogando is 27 years old and is a reliever turned starter. He pitched 42 innings all of last year and is already up to 25 innings this year. Stamina is a definite concern in addition to some other issues. A 31%/45% groundball/flyball rate at this park is reason to back off. His 88% strand rate this season is unsustainable and those baserunners are going to start cashing in anytime now. You’ll see some tremendous surface stats on Ogando (3-0, 2.13 ERA) but don’t buy into them just yet. In his last start against the Royals, he went six innings and allowed just five hits and one run but almost every ball was roped and it just happened to be hit right at someone. Ogando’s luck will not hold up much longer and the fact that he’s a 7½-5 favorite makes Morrow and the Jays about as juicy as it gets. Play: Toronto +143 (Risking 2 units).
