Larry Ness' **10** LEGEND! (2-0 L2 Months!) CBB
At 9:30 ET, my *10 LEGEND is on CLEMSON.
Both teams come into this game in relatively good shape; NC State won three of four while Clemson won five of seven. The Wolfpacks season could best be described as inconsistent; and the same could be said about Clemson. The biggest concern for State backers is that it struggles at times to get points on the board, and it will be under constant harassment from an effective Clemson press. NC States 5-11 finish in the conference left the Pack 20-44 in four seasons with coach Sidney Lowe (note: the Wolfpack are 9-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record). In my opinion the biggest weapon that Clemson possesses is its defense. The Tigers enter this game 8th in turnover % and 5th in steal %; and they do it with an intense man to man style of game and a full court press. Trevor Booker is a force down low, and he's complimented by sharp shooters on the outside (note: Clemson is 13-7 ATS as a favorite; also 4-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival). “I’m disappointed that we didn’t get it because we wanted to get that bye, but Wake’s a good team and they took care of business on their home court on Senior Night.”—Coach Oliver Purnell, after the loss at Wake Forest dropped his Tigers from the third seed to the sixth in the ACC tournament; I expect this team to make amends from that slip up and to smother the Pack; no problem laying the points here.
Good luck…Larry
At 9:30 ET, my *10 LEGEND is on CLEMSON.
Both teams come into this game in relatively good shape; NC State won three of four while Clemson won five of seven. The Wolfpacks season could best be described as inconsistent; and the same could be said about Clemson. The biggest concern for State backers is that it struggles at times to get points on the board, and it will be under constant harassment from an effective Clemson press. NC States 5-11 finish in the conference left the Pack 20-44 in four seasons with coach Sidney Lowe (note: the Wolfpack are 9-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record). In my opinion the biggest weapon that Clemson possesses is its defense. The Tigers enter this game 8th in turnover % and 5th in steal %; and they do it with an intense man to man style of game and a full court press. Trevor Booker is a force down low, and he's complimented by sharp shooters on the outside (note: Clemson is 13-7 ATS as a favorite; also 4-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival). “I’m disappointed that we didn’t get it because we wanted to get that bye, but Wake’s a good team and they took care of business on their home court on Senior Night.”—Coach Oliver Purnell, after the loss at Wake Forest dropped his Tigers from the third seed to the sixth in the ACC tournament; I expect this team to make amends from that slip up and to smother the Pack; no problem laying the points here.
Good luck…Larry
Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime – NEW MEXICO STATE
20 Dime – CINCINNATI
NEW MEXICO STATE --- I gotta be honest... this is one of those teams that has made me so much money this year I almost feel indebted to them. I remember getting 10 points at Louisiana Tech and thinking that was absolutely ridiculous. Not only did I take the number I took the money line and came up big... from that moment on I've been following this team and watching just how explosive they can be on offense. In that Louisiana Tech game, New Mexico State went in there and scored 91 points... you just don't do that at La. Tech. Since that game the Aggies have scored 84 points or more 5 times. Three times they went over the 90-mark. The point is... as much as I usually like backing good defensive teams, in this conference it seems to be all about offense... and the Aggies have a bunch of it.
In their previous home meeting with San Jose State, NMSU hit 11 of 21 from downtown and 17 of 24 from the free throw line, scoring 94 points in a 12-point win. It never hurts to back a team that can go on 10-0 runs in less than two minutes in their sleep, but that's exactly what they do. Granted, they've also been known to give up a few runs of their own because great offensive teams often times are very average, at best, on defense. But considering they're playing a San Jose State team that is also very average on defense and not quite as good as the Aggies offensively, giving this small number is a gift, in my opinion.
I believe the fact the Aggies got slapped in the face by Utah State and at Nevada in their last two regular season games only plays to my advantage here. This team was having things working too easily for them down the stretch and they were delivered a dose of reality in those two games. Now, with a renewed sense of focus and urgency, I believe NMSU will be as sharp as they've been all season in this first game. A 19-11 record is simply not good enough for the Aggies to walk into the Big Dance, so they'll need to win this conference tourney to punch their ticket. It starts tonight with San Jose State and what I expect to be a near double-digit win. Take the Aggies as your top play of the day.
CINCINNATI --- Too many points for the Mountaineers to be giving to this young, energetic bunch. When it looked like all was lost vs. Louisville last night, Cincy put together a nice second-half run and took the lead with just over three minutes remaining. I believe that comeback, which was a result of pure heart and "want to", gave this young bunch the confidence they will need to keep this game close to the very end. I'm sorry, but I just don't trust West Virginia to cover this big of a number away from home as I've seen them give big leads away too many times in the regular season. They aren't the best free throw shooting team in the nation and they tend to get lazy and let their guard down when they build a lead. West Virginia tends to look past certain teams and I can't see them coming into this one with the type of intensity they would if it were Syracuse or Villanova. Cincinnati is a scrappy bunch and although they haven't really been much of a money-maker this year vs. the Big East at the betting window, my money is still on the heavy underdog here to keep this thing close for 40 minutes. Take the Bearcats PLUS the points.
BOUGHT, PAID, CONFIRMED!
THIS WEEK: +80 dimes
ANYONE SEEN TRACE ADAMS: 4-0-1 with 2,000 star releases
Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime – NEW MEXICO STATE
20 Dime – CINCINNATI
NEW MEXICO STATE --- I gotta be honest... this is one of those teams that has made me so much money this year I almost feel indebted to them. I remember getting 10 points at Louisiana Tech and thinking that was absolutely ridiculous. Not only did I take the number I took the money line and came up big... from that moment on I've been following this team and watching just how explosive they can be on offense. In that Louisiana Tech game, New Mexico State went in there and scored 91 points... you just don't do that at La. Tech. Since that game the Aggies have scored 84 points or more 5 times. Three times they went over the 90-mark. The point is... as much as I usually like backing good defensive teams, in this conference it seems to be all about offense... and the Aggies have a bunch of it.
In their previous home meeting with San Jose State, NMSU hit 11 of 21 from downtown and 17 of 24 from the free throw line, scoring 94 points in a 12-point win. It never hurts to back a team that can go on 10-0 runs in less than two minutes in their sleep, but that's exactly what they do. Granted, they've also been known to give up a few runs of their own because great offensive teams often times are very average, at best, on defense. But considering they're playing a San Jose State team that is also very average on defense and not quite as good as the Aggies offensively, giving this small number is a gift, in my opinion.
I believe the fact the Aggies got slapped in the face by Utah State and at Nevada in their last two regular season games only plays to my advantage here. This team was having things working too easily for them down the stretch and they were delivered a dose of reality in those two games. Now, with a renewed sense of focus and urgency, I believe NMSU will be as sharp as they've been all season in this first game. A 19-11 record is simply not good enough for the Aggies to walk into the Big Dance, so they'll need to win this conference tourney to punch their ticket. It starts tonight with San Jose State and what I expect to be a near double-digit win. Take the Aggies as your top play of the day.
CINCINNATI --- Too many points for the Mountaineers to be giving to this young, energetic bunch. When it looked like all was lost vs. Louisville last night, Cincy put together a nice second-half run and took the lead with just over three minutes remaining. I believe that comeback, which was a result of pure heart and "want to", gave this young bunch the confidence they will need to keep this game close to the very end. I'm sorry, but I just don't trust West Virginia to cover this big of a number away from home as I've seen them give big leads away too many times in the regular season. They aren't the best free throw shooting team in the nation and they tend to get lazy and let their guard down when they build a lead. West Virginia tends to look past certain teams and I can't see them coming into this one with the type of intensity they would if it were Syracuse or Villanova. Cincinnati is a scrappy bunch and although they haven't really been much of a money-maker this year vs. the Big East at the betting window, my money is still on the heavy underdog here to keep this thing close for 40 minutes. Take the Bearcats PLUS the points.
BOUGHT, PAID, CONFIRMED!
THIS WEEK: +80 dimes
ANYONE SEEN TRACE ADAMS: 4-0-1 with 2,000 star releases
