NCAAB
Write-Up
Thursday, March 9
Big East tournament (NYC)
UConn breezed last two days, now faces rested Pitt squad that beat the Huskies 78-63 (-7.5) Dec 27, shooting 52% from floor. Pitt covered five of last seven games as favorite- they allowed 56 ppg in last five games. UConn had double digit halftime leads last two days, so fatigue should not factor in here. Huskies are 7-2 vs spread as an underdog this season.
St John's won eight of last nine games (7-2 vs spread); they played four starters 31+ minutes yesterday, while Syracuse was off. Orange (-3) got 76-59 win here Jan 12, shooting 57% from floor, 9-20 from arc (they did turn ball over 20 times). Syracuse won last five games (4-1 vs spread), after 2-6 midseason slump- they lost first tournament game two of last three finals. This is Johnnies' home court, but crowd will be split.
Cincinnati won/covered six of their last seven games; they lost 66-58 at Notre Dame Jan 19 (+4) , getting outscored 19-5 on foul line, shooting just 38%. Irish won four in row, 11 of last 12 games; they're 8-2 in last 10 games as a favorite. Lower-seeded team is 8-4 SU last three years in Big East quarterfinals. Cincinnati covered three of last four as underdog; they beat USF handily last night, while Notre Dame had night off.
Louisville covered its last five games as favorite; Marquette played last two nights, Cardinals had double-bye-- they came from way behind to nip Marquette 71-70 (-5) at home Jan 15, holding Eagles to 34% from floor, but Marquette outscored them 28-12 on foul line. Eagles are 8-4 in this event last 4+ years, 6-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. In their five seasons in the Big East, Cardinals are 2-3 in first tourney game.
Big 12 tournament (KC)
Colorado beat Kansas State twice this season, 74-66 (+10) on road Jan 12, then 58-56 (-1.5) at home Feb 12, when McGruder's game-winning trey was ruled too late via replay. Buffs played three starters 35+ min in tough win over Iowa State yesterday- they're 1-3 in last four games as an underdog. K-State won its last six games since the loss in Boulder, with wins at Nebraska/Texas, so they've recovered from midseason skid.
Missouri (+5) lost 91-89 in OT at Texas A&M Jan 15, outscored 29-9 on foul line (Tigers were 9-19 on charity stripe). Mizzou won last night for first time in last four games- didn't like their body language holding a lead late in game- didn't look confident vs pressure. Aggies are 3-4 last seven road games, losing last two, with wins by 3-1-3 points. Missouri was outscored 31-19 on foul line by Texas Tech in 88-84 win last nite.
SEC tournament (Atlanta)
Tennessee (-1) lost 68-65 at Arkansas Jan 8, turning ball over 18 times which offset +17 rebounding margin; Vols stumbled to 3-6 finish down stretch, playing better on road (5-2 in last seven on road). Vols won their first tourney game last three years, by 2-24-10 points. Arkansas is 2-6 on SEC road, going 2-5-1 vs spread in last eight games as dog. Hogs lost first tourney game last two seasons, by 13-15 points.
C-USA tournament (El Paso)
Memphis beat Southern Miss twice this season, by 1-6 points, despite trailing by 11-6 points at half; Tigers are 2-3 in last five games (0-4-1 vs spread)- they lost four of last five road games, with only win by a point at UCF. USM lost three of last four games; three of their seven losses in league were by single point. Talented Memphis has five freshmen in its rotation and this is their first taste of conference tournament action.
Marshall (+6) lost 82-74 on this floor 8 days ago, shooting 39% for the night, 7-28 from arc, but thats Herd's only loss in last eight games- they scored 64 points in second half of last nite's foul-marred win (Marshall was 32-48 from foul line, Houston 21-32). Miners won seven of eight at home in C-USA, covering three of last four here- they're 8-4 as favorite in league games. Marshall is 7-4 vs spread as underdog this season.
Big 11 tournament (Indianapolis)
Minnesota lost five in row, nine of last 10 games, as loss of Nolan took severe toll; home team won both Gopher-Northwestern games this year. Minnesota (+3) just lost 68-57 in Evanston 8 days ago. Wildcats shot under 38% in both series games, and were 22-69 behind arc in those two games (Gophers were 5-28). Minnesota scored just 57.8 ppg in its last four games- it would be impossible for me to back them right now.
Pac-10 tournament (Staples Center)
USC-Cal split two games this year, with games decided by total of five points; Trojans were 19-39 from arc in those games, unusually good for them. Defensively-stout USC won five of last six games, streak that got started with 78-75 (+2) win at Cal Feb 17. Cal is 4-0 since losing to SC; they've scored 74+ points in each of last five games. Trojans won this event in 2009, then didn't play LY because of their probation issues.
Wazzu beat Washington twice this season, 87-80 (+3.5) at home Jan 30, then 80-69 (+12) in Seattle Feb 27, game that was 24-17 at half. Huskies shot under 38% in both games. State is expected to get star Thompson back from suspension here, while Huskies' Overton is suspended for this entire tournament. Washington lost three of last four games- they're 0-4 in conference games decided by 5 or less points. Wazzu is 2-4.
Mountain West tournament (@ UNLV)
Home side won both New Mexico-Colorado State games this year, with winning side leading by double figures at half both games. Rams lost four of last five games to drop off bubble- they're 4-3 as MWC underdog this season. Lobos probably get BYU if they win here, and they've already beaten them twice, but they better not be looking past veteran bunch of Rams. New Mexico covered once in last five games as a favorite.