Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
YOUNGSTOWN STATE PK over Butler: The Bulldogs are far removed from the last two years where they ended up in the NCAA Title game both years as they come in tied for 5th in the league with a 7-6 mark, while overall they have posted a 13-12 record. Not very impressive for this team. The Bulldogs have struggled of late as they have won just 1 of their last 4 games and an offense that has not been very good overall (63.2), has been even worse in the last 4 games as they have averaged just 58.8 ppg over that stretch. Overall shooting has been a problem for the Bulldogs this year as they are 313th in FG% (40.0%), 336th in 3pt shooting (28.1 %) and 313th in FT shooting (63.5%). This is a team with some offensive problems. The beyond the arc numbers are very disturbing to them, and it should play a big role in this one. Butler is one of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the nation as they hit just 28.1 % of their long range shots overall, including just 26.9% in division 1 play and just 26.5% on the road. Now in contrast the penguins are 5th in the nation in 3-pointers made per game (9.1) and 27th in 3-pt % (38.8 %). Overall Youngstown State has averaged 67.1 ppg, while in their last 5 games they have averaged 69 ppg on 46.2% shooting overall and 39.5% shooting form long range. Defensively the overall numbers look pretty even, but Butler has allowed 66.1 ppg on the road, while the Penguins have allowed just 57.4 ppg at home. Butler is having problems scoring right now and it will not get better here where the penguins have been very stingy. Youngstown State has the edge at both ends of the floor, they are playing better ball right now and they are at home in a pick'em game. Ill roll with the Penguins in this one.
4 UNIT PLAYS
Oregon State/ Washington State Under 150.5: The Last time these teams met their was 157 points scored in the game, but i feel this time will be different. In each of OSU's last 6 games, just one of those games posted more than tonight's total, with an average of 145.5 ppg being scored in that stretch. The Beavers do score a ton of points at home (86 ppg) and Washington State has allowed 73.4 ppg on the road, But the Cougars defense has been playing better of late as they have allowed just 69.4 ppg in their last 5 games and I feel that they can hold OSU to the low to mid 70's at best here. Washington state will look to slow the game down, especially when they head out on the road, where their Pac-12 road games have averaged 135.4 ppg. During their pre-Pac-12 schedule the Cougars where scoring a ton on the road, but in their 5 conference road games they have averaged just 62.6 ppg. OSU comes in having allowed 70.7 ppg at home overall and 95.8 ppg in their Pac-12 home games, but some of those numbers are a bit skewered thanks to the 4 OT game vs Stanford. Still this is not a great defense, but they have the ability to hold this weak Wazzu offense, that will not run, below 70 points in this one. I expect a game with no more than 145 in this one. KEY TRENDS--- OREGON ST is 13-4 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is 24-7 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=45% since 1997.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Colorado +7 over ARIZONA
Added) Google News Play. The Buffs are team that is playing with a lot of confidence right now and their are within grasp of their first conference title of any kind since 1968-69. The Buffs have done this year with great defensive play as they have allowed just 62.6 points per game and limiting their opponents to a 39.8 shooting percentage, while in the Pac 10 they have allowed just 61.6 ppg on 39% shooting (2nd in Pac-12). The defense is predicated on the ability to crash the boards. As a team Colorado brings down 37.4 rebounds per game which is the second best mark in the conference. Arizona has also played very good defense in the Pac-12 as they have allowed just 59.6 ppg in conference play, so I would say the defenses are about even. I would also have to say that the offenses are even as well, as Colorado comes in averaging 70.2 ppg overall, while Arizona has averaged 69.6 ppg. Pretty much the stats are even in this one and on a Neutral floor i would have to say this game would be a PK. There is no way that the Cats home court edge is 7 points with two evenly matched teams on the court. Colorado has been the more consistent team this year and I expect them to walk out with the outright upset. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. This play is 26-5 the last 5 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Virginia Tech Over 131.5: For much of this year Tech has played great defense, but it has started to break down at that end of the floor as they have allowed 68.3 ppg in their last 6 games, including allowing 70.8 ppg in their last 4 games. Now they have to face a Miami squad that has been solid offensively of late. Yes Miami's last 2 games went to OT, but they have still averaged 71.2 ppg in their last 6 games during regulation. at home this year the Canes have averaged 75.4 ppg, while they have average (in Regulation) 72.3 ppg in their conference home games. Tech has struggled to score of late as they have have averaged just 62.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while on the road this year they have averaged just 61.4 ppg, but they should have some success vs a Miami team that has allowed 68.5 ppg at home, including 73.3 (regulation Only0 in their 3 ACC home games. Miami likes the uptempo pace and tey should get it on their home floor. The uptempo game should help Tech get their points, while Miami will score plenty of their own points vs a tiring Hokie defense. This one should flirt with 140 points.
Northwestern/ Iowa Under 147.5: Northwestern is favorite by 7 and technically the favored home team should have the game at their pace. Right? Well im banking on it here. The pace of the Cats is in the 130's and not the high 140's. Northwestern's home games have averaged just 131.1 ppg on the year, while their Big 10 home games have averaged 132.8 ppg. Iowa does like to run and push tempo and they have scored 74.2 ppg overall and 70 ppg on the road overall, but they will be facing a Wildcat team that has allowed just 61.3 ppg overall at home, including just 63.8 ppg in their Big 10 home games. Northwestern does average 69.6 ppg overall and 69.9 ppg at home, but they are not a team that pushes the ball as they have averaged just 53.3 shots per game, which is 239th in the country. Because of their slower pace I don't expect them to fully take advantage of a bad Iowa defense that has allowed 80 ppg on the road. In big 10 play Northwestern has scored more than 74 points just twice and even if they do hit 77 points in this one (I think 75 is max), I just don't see iowa getting more than 70 vs this tough Cats defense. This one should be played in the high 130's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Western Kentucky +15 over MTSU: The Blue raiders have been impressive at 202 on the year and 12-0 at home, but despite that perfect mark at home they have still only won just 1 of their last 4 at home by more than 15 and have outscored their home foes by 13.2 ppg on the year. WKU is playing better right now, having won 3 of their last 4 and should be able to hang with the Blue Raiders here.
St Mary's +3.5 over GONZAGA: (Added) Google News Play. Going through an entire conference schedule unscathed is hard to do, but I feel that St Mary's has the makeup to doi just that. This team has been dynamite at both end and have out scored their opponents by 16.1 ppg on the year. This team will not be intimidated by the Zags in this one after they won by 21 points vs them back in January, plus in their last visit here they took the game 73-71, so playing here will not intimidate them either. The Zags are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and have really struggled to beat some of the weaker teams of late. The Gaels have edges at both ends of the floor, they are playing with much more confidence than the Zags right now and they know how to win in this building. I expect the outright win here by the Gaels.
UC Northridge -2 over UC DAVIS: (Added) Wise man once say "never ask a bad team to win for you". Well im gonna do just that here. CS Northridge is a bad team at 6-15, but UC Davis is a whole lot worse at 1-21. The Aggies are 1-7 at home this year and 0-10 in the Big West. Both teams have played very bad defense this year, but the Matadors have averaged 6 more points overall on offense and 10 more ppg in their last 5 games than the Aggies, so they get a solid edge there. This long year in Aggie land will only get longer after tonight.
1 UNIT PLAY
Denver +1.5 over FLORIDA ATLANTIC: (Added) Denver is better at both ends of the floor and should walk out with the outright win here.