STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/6/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 2/6/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Cincinnati won its last 14 games; they're 10-0 in AAC, 3-2 as favorite at home- they won last two games by total of 8 points. Bearcats are 4-3 in its last seven games with Connecticut, but Huskies won three of last four in this gym. UConn won five of last six games since getting swept down in Texas, winning last two road games, at Memphis/Rutgers. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 versus spread.
•Home side won seven of last eight LSU-Georgia games, with LSU 5-2 in last seven, but losers in last two visits to Athens by 20-9 points. Dawgs lost last three games but are 3-1 at home in SEC, with only loss by 5 to Vanderbilt- home teams are 6-2 versus spread in their SEC games. LSU lost its only two conference road games, by 14 at Ole Miss, 2 at Alabama. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 10-3-1 versus spread.
•Georgia State (-11.5) waxed Ark-Little Rock 99-73 at home Jan 18, with Panthers making 15-34 from arc in game they led 59-29 at half. State is 9-0 in Sun Belt, 4-0 as road favorite, winning away games by 10-23-7-8 points- this is their third game in six nights. UALR won three of its last four games, is 3-1 at home in league, with only loss by 13 to Troy. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 against the spread.
•Louisiana Tech is 7-2 in C-USA, 4-0 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-34-20-21 points; Bulldogs are holding foes to 22.6% from arc, #1 in C-USA. First road game in 19 days for Tulsa team that won three of last four games- they split first two conference road games, losing by 4 at Charlotte, winning at Marshall. C-USA home favorites of more than 8 points are 14-5 versus spread.
•Utah is 3-6 in Pac-12, but only one of six losses was by more than four points; they're 3-1 at home in Pac-12, winning by 11-18-5 points. Utes (+2.5) lost 59-57 at Washington Jan 8; Utah was 1-15 from arc, in game where both teams shot 52%+ inside arc. Washington lost its last four at home by 9-26-12-5 points; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 10-7 versus spread.
•Oregon beat Arizona last two years, by 2-4 points; they're 5-2 against spread in last seven visits to Tucson, but are 2-6 in last eight games, 2-3 on road, with losses by 9-8-4 points. Arizona lost first game of season at California Saturday and lost big man Ashley for season; they're 2-3 as home favorites, winning by 35-9-23-12-9 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 9-7 versus spread.
•Cal-Irvine (-1.5) beat Long Beach 46-44 Jan 9, in brickfest where Irvine scored only 3 points in last 10:00 of game, and both teams shot 38% or less inside arc. UCI won last three series games by 3-7-2 points; they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning by 18-6 points, losing to Hawaii in OT. Big West home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-6 versus spread. 49ers are on 4-game win streak, winning last two on road, at Cal Poly/Hawaii.
•San Francisco won seven of last eight games with San Diego, winning its last four visits here by 2-10-11-13 points. Dons (-7) won 64-62 in first meeting at home Jan 18, going 6-11 from arc, only 12-22 on line. Toreros covered five of last six games (3-3 SU); they're 2-2 at home, winning by 7-18 points, losing to Pepperdine/Pacific. WCC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-1 versus spread. Dons are 2-2 as WCC road dogs.
•St Mary's (-10) crushed LMU 89-61 at home Jan 25; they've won three in row, 14 of last 15 versus Lions, winning last seven visits here, with six of seven wins by 11+ points. WCC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 2-3 versus spread. Gaels lost three of last four road games- favorites covered four of their five road games. LMU lost eight of last nine games, after its 2-0 WCC start; they lost last two home games, by 14-10 points.
•Arizona State won three in row, nine of last ten games versus Oregon State, winning last five in Tempe by 10+ points; Sun Devils won last three at home by 19-4-21 points; they're 3-2 as Pac-12 favorites. Beavers won three of last four games, are 1-2 as road underdogs, losing road games by 6-11-6 points, with only win at Washington State. Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 9-8 against the spread.
•Belmont lost 79-74 at Murray State LY, then beat Racers 70-68 in OT in Ohio Valley Conference tourney; Bruins got upset at Tennessee Tech last game, are 1-3 as OVC home favorite, winning home games by 11-2-14-3 points. OVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 14-12 versus spread. Murray is 8-1 in OVC, with only loss by 7 at Edwardsville; they won SU at EKU in its only game as conference underdog.
•Fort Wayne (-1.5) beat South Dakota State 82-75 at home Jan 11, ending 7-game series skid; Mastodons shot 65% inside arc, survived State's 10 of 22 shooting from arc. Fort Wayne lost last six visits here, last three all by 26+ points- they're 6-1 in Summit League, winning at Denver, losing by 14 at South Dakota. Summit League home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-3. Jackrabbits lost last two home games, to Omaha/North Dakota St.
•Weber State (-2) won 72-60 at North Dakota Jan 11, making 9-17 from arc; they're 4-0 versus UND in Big Sky play, including 76-74 win in league tourney LY. Wildcats are 2-4 as home favorites, four of six home wins by 7 or less points. North Dakota won/covered four of its last six five games, is 2-2 on road, losing by 13 at Montana, 2 at Portland State. Big Sky home favorites of 9 or less points are 13-10-1 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IUPUI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was IUPUI 67.1, OPPONENT 75.5.
-- ARIZONA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 68.5, OPPONENT 53.9,
-- CINCINNATI is 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.2 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 26.2, OPPONENT 27.6.
-- UC-SANTA BARBARA is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was UC-SANTA BARBARA 29.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
-- JOHNNY JONES is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was JONES 67.5, OPPONENT 81.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CLEVELAND ST is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 76.9, OPPONENT 67.0.
-- CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 65.7, OPPONENT 55.4.
-- OREGON ST is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was OREGON ST 36.2, OPPONENT 33.0.
-- MARIST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MARIST 27.5, OPPONENT 32.7.
-- WES MILLER is 1-16 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of UNC-GREENSBORO.
The average score was MILLER 66.3, OPPONENT 73.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (GEORGIA ST) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(56-4 since 1997.) (93.3%, +48.3 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192.5
The average score in these games was: Team 75.3, Opponent 66.3 (Average point differential = +9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0, +15 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-2, +15.6 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (EASTERN WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%).
(31-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (18-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.4
The average score in these games was: Team 66.5, Opponent 67.8 (Average point differential = -1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-40).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, with a losing record.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 69.4, Opponent 69.8 (Average point differential = -0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (41.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-35).
-- Play Against - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (UC-RIVERSIDE) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 5 or 6 days rest.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.1, Opponent 27.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (91-70).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (LONG BEACH ST) - revenging a close loss versus opponent of 3 points or less, after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, with a losing record.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.5, Opponent 27.8 (Average first half point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-49).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#507 CONNECTICUT @ #508 CINCINNATI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Cincinnati -5, Total: N/A) - Seventh-ranked Cincinnati has been winning lots of games – 14 in a row – but finally cracked the Top 10 in the rankings as it enters Thursday’s home contest against Connecticut. The streaking Bearcats have found respect hard to come by while dominating the first-year American Athletic Conference and haven’t lost since Dec. 14. The Huskies have dug themselves out of a midseason rut and have won six of their past seven games.
Connecticut expects to have forward DeAndre Daniels (ankle) back against the Bearcats after he missed the last contest, an 80-43 rout of Houston. Bearcats guard Sean Kilpatrick is on his way to conference player of the honors and said finally cracking the Top 10 won’t have any effect on the team’s approach. “We are still going to play with the chip on our shoulder like we have been all season,” Kilpatrick said. “The number next to our name doesn’t really mean much because any team on any night can really come out and bump you.”
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (17-4 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 5-3 AAC): Daniels is second on the team in scoring (13.4) and rebounds (5.6) and recently set career highs of 31 points and 12 rebounds against Temple before injuring himself in the ensuing game against Rutgers. He wasn’t needed in the blowout of Houston, but there is no disputing the Huskies badly need his presence against the Bearcats. “It’s very important,” forward Phillip Nolan said. “He’s a very important piece to our team.”
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (21-2 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 10-0 AAC): Kilpatrick is averaging 19.4 points and has made 59 3-pointers while pacing the offensive attack. He stands third in school history with 1,891 career points and is 109 away from joining legendary Oscar Robertson as the only players in school history to reach 2,000. “He is maybe the most underrated great player that has ever played here,” Bearcats coach Mick Cronin said after Sunday’s 50-45 victory over South Florida. “I think he has definitely not gotten the attention.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Huskies have won eight of the 12 meetings after the teams split two games last season.... Connecticut G Shabazz Napier (team-best 17.9 average) is 17 points away from surpassing Jerome Dyson (1,630 from 2006-10) for 13th place on the school’s career scoring list.... Bearcats F Justin Jackson has blocked 75 shots this season and is five away from becoming the fourth player in school history to reach 200 for a career.... UConn is 35-16 against the spread versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.... Cincinnati is 5-14 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 561 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =CONNECTICUT. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 566 times, while CONNECTICUT won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 553 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 447 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 7-3 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 7-4 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Huskies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Huskies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AAC.
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Over is 17-5-1 in UCONN last 23 road games.
--CIN is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 43-12 in CIN last 55 overall.
--Under is 39-12 in CIN last 51 home games.
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#515 LSU @ #516 GEORGIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: LSU -3, Total: N/A) - For at least one week, LSU looked like an NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers will try to continue the positive momentum when they travel to Georgia for a Southeastern Conference contest Thursday. LSU is coming off a big week, as it earned home wins over Kentucky (87-82) and Arkansas (88-74) behind SEC Player of the Week Johnny O'Bryant and SEC Freshman of the Week Jordan Mickey.
The win over Kentucky was a major resume-builder for the Tigers, but their 2-3 road record hurts their case, and they can't afford another setback at Georgia. "I think we've got a ways to go," LSU coach Johnny Jones told reporters. "We certainly felt good about last week, but we're one game from the halfway point of nine conference games. When you get into February and where we are now, you want to start fine-tuning what you need to do and really start being at your best at what you can hang your hat on." The Bulldogs have lost three straight, including a 74-67 defeat at Auburn on Saturday, but they've been tough at home with wins over Alabama and Arkansas in league play.
•ABOUT LSU (14-6 SU, 6-7-3 ATS, 5-3 SEC): O'Bryant has been a monster of late, averaging 21.6 points and 8.2 rebounds over the past five games including back-to-back contests with 20-plus points. He and Mickey (13.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 blocks) are a formidable post duo that should be able to neutralize Georgia's strength on the boards. Point guard Anthony Hickey leads the SEC with a 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and dished out 12 assists with just one turnover in last week's victories.
•ABOUT GEORGIA (10-10 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 4-4 SEC): The Bulldogs don't possess a lot of offensive firepower with guard Charles Mann (13.5 points, 2.9 assists) leading three players who average double-digit scoring. They're tough defensively, though, and their biggest weakness at that end — defending the perimeter — will be minimized against an LSU team that doesn't rely much on the outside shot. Georgia needs guard Kenny Gaines to get back into the swing of things after scoring only nine points against Auburn in his return to the lineup following a two-game absence with a bruised thigh.
•PREGAME NOTES: LSU leads the SEC and ranks in the top 10 in the nation in blocked shots (6.9 per game) and steals (9.2).... Georgia has not been outrebounded in any of its eight conference games, holding the edge on the boards in seven contests and tying Florida with 34 rebounds apiece.... Mickey has 75 blocked shots, putting him on pace to become the only LSU player other than Shaquille O'Neal (three times) to record 100 blocks in a season.... The Tigers are 10-1 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last three seasons.... The Bulldogs are 16-6 versus the spread after three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the spread 583 times, while LSU covered the spread 386 times. *EDGE against the spread =GEORGIA. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA won the game straight up 491 times, while LSU won 482 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the first half line 575 times, while LSU covered the first half line 425 times. *EDGE against first half line =GEORGIA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LSU is 10-8 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1997.
--LSU is 11-8 straight up against GEORGIA since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LSU is 11-8 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGIA since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Tigers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Georgia.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LSU is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Thu. games.
--LSU is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 6-0 in LSU last 6 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 11-3 in UGA last 14 overall.
--Over is 11-4 in UGA last 15 Thu. games.
--Under is 6-2 in UGA last 8 vs. Southeastern.
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#527 TEMPLE @ #528 SMU
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNEWS - Line: SMU -13.5, Total: N/A) - Temple's first stop on a Texas road trip is a visit Thursday to streaking Southern Methodist, which is coming off one its biggest wins under Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown. The Mustangs sprinted past then-No. 22 Memphis on Saturday to improve to 11-0 home. SMU has been impressive in front of its fans - including a 5-0 mark at newly-renovated Moody Coliseum - with a plus-21 scoring margin and 53.7 percent shooting clip.
Brown is 3-0 against Temple during his tenures at Kansas and UCLA and is familiar with the Philadelphia area after coaching the Philadelphia 76ers for six years. The struggling Owls have lost 11 of 13 and are 0-4 in American Athletic Conference road games despite having four of the league's top 12 scorers. Temple scores plenty of points but ranks at the bottom of the AAC in rebounding, scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-14 SU, 8-9-1 ATS, 1-7 AAC): The Owls are the only Division I team with four players averaging at least 14 points, led by Dalton Pepper's 17.7 points and AAC-leading three 3-pointers made per game. Will Cummings (16.9 points) is averaging 19.8 points in four games since returning from a concussion and Anthony Lee (14.1 points) leads the AAC with 9.1 rebounds. Quenton DeCosey (15.8 points) has scored in double figures in 19 games for Temple, which has had fewer than six turnovers in each of its last two games.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (17-5 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-3 AAC): Nic Moore leads the Mustangs, who have won six of seven, with 13.9 points and Markus Kennedy adds 12.1 points and 7.4 rebounds. The Mustangs have outrebounded 19 opponents and are plus-7.4 on the glass this season. SMU is ranked third nationally in field-goal defense percentage (37.2) and lead the league in shooting (49.1).
•PREGAME NOTES: The NCAA provided a waiver to allow SMU to fly Kennedy home to Philadelphia following Saturday's win against Memphis so he could surprise his mother before she was deployed by the Air Force for eight months.... SMU has outscored all but one opponent in the paint and averages a 35.7-20.5 advantage in the lane.... Temple's 90-81 win over SMU in the 1956 NCAA Final Four third-place game was their last meeting.... The Mustangs are 11-4 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Owls are 20-8 versus the spread in road games after having lost three of their last four games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 525 times, while TEMPLE covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 859 times, while TEMPLE won 122 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 533 times, while SMU covered the first half line 428 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--TEM is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
--Under is 9-2 in TEM last 11 road games.
--SMU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 9-4 in SMU last 13 overall.
--Under is 17-5 in SMU last 22 Thu. games.
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#537 WASHINGTON @ #538 UTAH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Utah -9.5, Total: N/A) - Washington leading scorer C.J. Wilcox hopes to leave with better memories after he visits Utah for the second time in his career Thursday night. Wilcox, a native of Pleasant Grove, Utah who led the state in scoring as a high school junior six years ago, had one of the worst games of his career two years in his first Pac-12 game at Utah, scoring five points on 2-for-13 shooting in the 18-point loss. Wilcox has continued to elevate his offensive numbers across the board this season, averaging 19.8 points, second in the conference, and shooting 60.5 percent from the field over the last three games.
Utah point guard Delon Wright scored a season-high 27 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in the first meeting with the Huskies this season, a 59-57 win by host Washington on Jan. 8. Wright is coming off a 17-point, 11-assist effort in an overtime loss Saturday against Colorado, putting a triple-double realistically within reach. The player who needs to catch fire for the Utes is forward Jordan Loveridge, who is 6-for-25 in the last two games, including 1-for-9 from 3-point range; he had a season-low four points in Saturday’s loss to the Buffaloes.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON (13-9 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 5-4 Pac-12): The Huskies can’t be pleased after losing to 11th-place Washington State on Saturday, which kept the Huskies out of a three-way tie for second. Freshman point guard Nigel Williams-Goss had been steady with the ball lately - highlighted by his 32-point, zero-turnover performance Jan. 25 against Oregon State - but committed six turnovers against the Cougars. Washington needs more from shooting guard Andrew Andrews, who’s averaging 14.2 points in the five conference wins and eight points in the four losses.
•ABOUT UTAH (14-7 SU, 12-3-1 ATS, 3-6 Pac-12): Brandon Taylor is another player whose individual success seems to be tied to the team 's performance. Before scoring 17 points in the overtime loss against Colorado, the Utes were 7-0 this season when Taylor scored in double figures. The sophomore guard had the breakout game of his career against Washington last season, producing then-career highs of 19 points and six assists in the 74-65 win.
•PREGAME NOTES: Utah's seven losses have all come on the road, by a combined 26 points.... Wilcox’s father, Craig Wilcox, played basketball for BYU from 1993-95.... Utah holds opponents to 29.2 percent on 3-pointers, tops in the Pac-12.... Washington is 11-3 against the spread versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.... Utah is 14-4 versus the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 523 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH won the game straight up 783 times, while WASHINGTON won 191 times. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 527 times, while UTAH covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WASH is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thu. games.
--Under is 20-8-1 in WASH last 29 road games.
--Under is 14-5-1 in WASH last 20 vs. Pacific-12.
--UTAH is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--UTAH is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 7-3 in UTAH last 10 Thu. games.
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#539 OREGON @ #540 ARIZONA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arizona -10.5, Total: N/A) - So much has changed for Arizona in the last week. The Wildcats are no longer undefeated, no longer ranked No. 1 and no longer have the services of versatile forward Brandon Ashley, who broke his foot in Saturday's loss to California. However, Sean Miller's team is still an impressive 21-1 with a more-than-respectable No. 3 ranking and plenty of talented players to make up for the loss of Ashley as the Wildcats host Oregon on Thursday.
"That's the hard part of sports," Miller said last weekend, via USA Today. "Things can be taken from you on one play." Ashley, a sophomore averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, was injured in the opening minutes of the loss to the Bears - a 60-58 setback in which the Wildcats shot just 32.3 percent, including 2-of-11 from 3-point range. The Ducks have endured plenty of their own struggles in 2014, but they have rallied to win two of their last three games sandwiched around a hard-fought, two-point loss to UCLA.
•ABOUT OREGON (15-6 SU, 9-9-2 ATS, 3-6 Pac-12): A Ducks team that once was 13-0 is now fighting for its NCAA Tournament life following a stretch of six losses in seven games prior to Saturday's 12-point win over USC. Joseph Young led the way with 21 points and a career-high six steals against the Trojans, giving the junior guard 46 points and 11 steals over his last two games. Young's backcourt mate, Jason Calliste, has shot 60.7 percent over his last six games since enduring a rough stretch in early January.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (21-1 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 8-1 Pac-12): The absence of Ashley should mean more playing time for freshman forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a McDonald's All-American, and perhaps sophomore guard Gabe York as well. "Maybe a three-guard lineup, that's something we have to look at," said Miller, whose team has not lost at home in nearly a year (a 77-69 defeat to Cal on Feb. 10, 2013). One player who definitely needs to score more is highly regarded freshman Aaron Gordon (11.8 points), who has emerged as a solid defensive presence but has been inconsistent offensively, as evidenced by his 9-of-37 shooting over the last three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Since scoring 91 points against Arizona State on Jan. 16, Arizona has failed to reach 70 in any of its last four games.... The Wildcats lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense (40.4) on two-point attempts.... Following 10 straight games scoring in double figures, Oregon G Damyean Dotson has not reached 10 points in any of his last five contests, averaging 7.2 points during that stretch.... The Ducks are 5-16 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 16-3 versus the spread in home games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the spread 508 times, while OREGON covered the spread 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 777 times, while OREGON won 200 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 518 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 441 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 16-15 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 20-11 straight up against OREGON since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 Thu. games.
--ORE is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--ORE is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. Pacific-12.
--ARIZ is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--ARIZ is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.
--Under is 37-16-1 in ARIZ last 54 overall.
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#541 PENN ST @ #542 MICHIGAN ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Michigan State -13.5, Total: N/A) - Eighth-ranked Michigan State did not have a lot of luck outside of conference play over the weekend but is looking to get right back into a winning streak when it returns to Big Ten action by hosting Penn State on Thursday. The Spartans headed to New York for a showcase against Georgetown at Madison Square Garden on Saturday and the loss of Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson appeared to catch up with the team. The Nittany Lions are winners of three straight.
Penn State shocked Ohio State in overtime the last time it took to the road Jan. 29 and is gaining confidence with each victory. “We were 0-6 a couple of weeks ago,” Nittany Lions coach Patrick Chambers told reporters. “What these kids have done to turn this around is just kept working, kept digging, kept getting better and they really just bought into what we’re doing.” Part of that 0-6 start in Big Ten play for Penn State was a 79-63 home loss to Michigan State in the conference opener Dec. 31.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (12-10 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 3-6 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions are enjoying their first three-game win streak in the Big Ten since 2009 behind the play of D.J. Newbill, who is averaging 20 points in that span. “We are definitely on a high right now,” Newbill said. “We’re playing some great basketball. The main secret to our success is that we are helping each other out. We are making mistakes but we are not pointing fingers.” Newbill scored 25 points in the win at Ohio State and provided help on the interior with seven rebounds as Penn State outrebounded Purdue in a 79-68 triumph on Sunday.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (19-3 SU, 11-8-2 ATS, 8-1 Big Ten): The Spartans dominated the boards 45-26 in the first meeting with the Nittany Lions, with Payne and Dawson combining for 19 rebounds and 25 points. Payne (foot) sat out the last six games but is close to a return and could be on the floor for limited minutes Thursday. Dawson (hand) is further away and his absence has been felt with Michigan State going 1-2 over the last three games. Coach Tom Izzo questioned his team’s toughness in the absence of Payne and Dawson after getting outrebounded and beat up inside in Saturday’s 64-60 loss to Georgetown.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State G Gary Harris is averaging 20.6 points on 54 percent shooting in the last five games.... The Spartans have won 19 of 20 meetings between the schools in East Lansing, Michigan.... The Nittany Lions have held their last four opponents to a combined 37 percent shooting.... Michigan State is 14-4 versus the spread in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last three seasons.... Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in road games after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 523 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 841 times, while PENN ST won 140 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 544 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =PENN ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 15-12 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 22-5 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 15-12 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Michigan St.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PSU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--PSU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 8-3 in PSU last 11 road games.
--MSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in MSU last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 6-0 in MSU last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
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#557 OREGON ST @ #558 ARIZONA ST
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Arizona State -7.5, Total: N/A) - Arizona State and Oregon State are two of the five Pac-12 teams knotted with 5-4 conference marks at the halfway point, making it a pivotal affair when the Sun Devils host the Bears on Thursday. The two squads are just one game behind the two teams who share second place – UCLA and California – in the jumbled-up conference. Oregon State just defeated the Bruins for its fourth win in five games while Arizona State had a three-game win streak end with a loss to Stanford.
Part of Oregon State’s surprising success lies in the emergence of freshman point guard Hallice Cooke, who scored a season-best 20 points in Sunday’s home win over UCLA. Cooke is averaging 10.6 points in seven games since becoming a starter and is making scoring machine Roberto Nelson (21.8) even more dangerous. The Sun Devils lost at Stanford despite 24 points from star guard Jahii Carson but are a solid 11-1 at home.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (13-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 5-4 Pac-12): Cooke is shooting a spectacular 53.8 percent from 3-point range – tops in the Pac-12 – and is looking to become the first freshman to lead the conference in that category since UCLA’s Jason Kapono shot 47.4 percent in 1999-2000. Cooke has shown poise beyond his years and coach Craig Robinson feels he is doing a masterful job of running the offense. “He doesn’t seem like this is his first year, it looks like he has been around the block,” Robinson said after the UCLA contest. “I’m really excited for the future for him. It’s not an accident that these things are working for him because he’s in the gym all the time.”
•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (16-6 SU, 11-9-0 ATS, 5-4 PAC-12): Carson, a sophomore, is on a roll with a 22.8 scoring average over the last five games, and four of his eight 20-point outings have come during the stretch. Carson averages a team-best 19.1 points and backcourt mate Jermaine Marshall (15.3) has proved to be a solid complement while knocking down a team-high 57 3-pointers. The Sun Devils have one other double-digit scorer in center Jordan Bachynski (11.4), who leads the squad in rebounding (8.9) and blocked shots (91).
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona State has won nine of the past 10 meetings.... Nelson has strung together six straight 20-point outings and needs 22 points to pass Charlie Sitton (1,561 from 1980-84) and move into fifth place on Oregon State’s career scoring list.... Bachynski is six blocks shy of matching the Pac-12 career record held by Arizona’s Anthony Cook (278 from 1985-89).... The Beavers are 0-7 versus the spread in road games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts over the last three seasons.... The Sun Devils are 2-16 against the spread after one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the spread 560 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST won the game straight up 735 times, while OREGON ST won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 506 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA ST is 17-14 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA ST is 22-9 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1997.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Beavers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Beavers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Arizona St.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona St.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORST is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Under is 3-1-1 in ORST last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 8-2 in ORST last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 37-17-1 in ASU last 55 overall.
--Under is 16-6-1 in ASU last 23 Thu. games.
--Under is 37-16-3 in ASU last 56 home games.
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NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 2/6/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Cincinnati won its last 14 games; they're 10-0 in AAC, 3-2 as favorite at home- they won last two games by total of 8 points. Bearcats are 4-3 in its last seven games with Connecticut, but Huskies won three of last four in this gym. UConn won five of last six games since getting swept down in Texas, winning last two road games, at Memphis/Rutgers. AAC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 versus spread.
•Home side won seven of last eight LSU-Georgia games, with LSU 5-2 in last seven, but losers in last two visits to Athens by 20-9 points. Dawgs lost last three games but are 3-1 at home in SEC, with only loss by 5 to Vanderbilt- home teams are 6-2 versus spread in their SEC games. LSU lost its only two conference road games, by 14 at Ole Miss, 2 at Alabama. SEC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 10-3-1 versus spread.
•Georgia State (-11.5) waxed Ark-Little Rock 99-73 at home Jan 18, with Panthers making 15-34 from arc in game they led 59-29 at half. State is 9-0 in Sun Belt, 4-0 as road favorite, winning away games by 10-23-7-8 points- this is their third game in six nights. UALR won three of its last four games, is 3-1 at home in league, with only loss by 13 to Troy. Sun Belt home underdogs are 3-7 against the spread.
•Louisiana Tech is 7-2 in C-USA, 4-0 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-34-20-21 points; Bulldogs are holding foes to 22.6% from arc, #1 in C-USA. First road game in 19 days for Tulsa team that won three of last four games- they split first two conference road games, losing by 4 at Charlotte, winning at Marshall. C-USA home favorites of more than 8 points are 14-5 versus spread.
•Utah is 3-6 in Pac-12, but only one of six losses was by more than four points; they're 3-1 at home in Pac-12, winning by 11-18-5 points. Utes (+2.5) lost 59-57 at Washington Jan 8; Utah was 1-15 from arc, in game where both teams shot 52%+ inside arc. Washington lost its last four at home by 9-26-12-5 points; they're 2-2 as road underdogs. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 10-7 versus spread.
•Oregon beat Arizona last two years, by 2-4 points; they're 5-2 against spread in last seven visits to Tucson, but are 2-6 in last eight games, 2-3 on road, with losses by 9-8-4 points. Arizona lost first game of season at California Saturday and lost big man Ashley for season; they're 2-3 as home favorites, winning by 35-9-23-12-9 points. Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 9-7 versus spread.
•Cal-Irvine (-1.5) beat Long Beach 46-44 Jan 9, in brickfest where Irvine scored only 3 points in last 10:00 of game, and both teams shot 38% or less inside arc. UCI won last three series games by 3-7-2 points; they're 1-2 as home favorites, winning by 18-6 points, losing to Hawaii in OT. Big West home favorites of 7 or less points are 2-6 versus spread. 49ers are on 4-game win streak, winning last two on road, at Cal Poly/Hawaii.
•San Francisco won seven of last eight games with San Diego, winning its last four visits here by 2-10-11-13 points. Dons (-7) won 64-62 in first meeting at home Jan 18, going 6-11 from arc, only 12-22 on line. Toreros covered five of last six games (3-3 SU); they're 2-2 at home, winning by 7-18 points, losing to Pepperdine/Pacific. WCC home favorites of 3 or less points are 5-1 versus spread. Dons are 2-2 as WCC road dogs.
•St Mary's (-10) crushed LMU 89-61 at home Jan 25; they've won three in row, 14 of last 15 versus Lions, winning last seven visits here, with six of seven wins by 11+ points. WCC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 2-3 versus spread. Gaels lost three of last four road games- favorites covered four of their five road games. LMU lost eight of last nine games, after its 2-0 WCC start; they lost last two home games, by 14-10 points.
•Arizona State won three in row, nine of last ten games versus Oregon State, winning last five in Tempe by 10+ points; Sun Devils won last three at home by 19-4-21 points; they're 3-2 as Pac-12 favorites. Beavers won three of last four games, are 1-2 as road underdogs, losing road games by 6-11-6 points, with only win at Washington State. Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 9-8 against the spread.
•Belmont lost 79-74 at Murray State LY, then beat Racers 70-68 in OT in Ohio Valley Conference tourney; Bruins got upset at Tennessee Tech last game, are 1-3 as OVC home favorite, winning home games by 11-2-14-3 points. OVC home favorites of 8 or less points are 14-12 versus spread. Murray is 8-1 in OVC, with only loss by 7 at Edwardsville; they won SU at EKU in its only game as conference underdog.
•Fort Wayne (-1.5) beat South Dakota State 82-75 at home Jan 11, ending 7-game series skid; Mastodons shot 65% inside arc, survived State's 10 of 22 shooting from arc. Fort Wayne lost last six visits here, last three all by 26+ points- they're 6-1 in Summit League, winning at Denver, losing by 14 at South Dakota. Summit League home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-3. Jackrabbits lost last two home games, to Omaha/North Dakota St.
•Weber State (-2) won 72-60 at North Dakota Jan 11, making 9-17 from arc; they're 4-0 versus UND in Big Sky play, including 76-74 win in league tourney LY. Wildcats are 2-4 as home favorites, four of six home wins by 7 or less points. North Dakota won/covered four of its last six five games, is 2-2 on road, losing by 13 at Montana, 2 at Portland State. Big Sky home favorites of 9 or less points are 13-10-1 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- IUPUI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was IUPUI 67.1, OPPONENT 75.5.
-- ARIZONA is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 68.5, OPPONENT 53.9,
-- CINCINNATI is 1-12 against the 1rst half line (-12.2 Units) after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 26.2, OPPONENT 27.6.
-- UC-SANTA BARBARA is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers this season.
The average score was UC-SANTA BARBARA 29.5, OPPONENT 26.6.
-- JOHNNY JONES is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games in all games he has coached since 1997.
The average score was JONES 67.5, OPPONENT 81.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CLEVELAND ST is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND ST 76.9, OPPONENT 67.0.
-- CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 65.7, OPPONENT 55.4.
-- OREGON ST is 10-1 against the 1rst half line (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
The average score was OREGON ST 36.2, OPPONENT 33.0.
-- MARIST is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MARIST 27.5, OPPONENT 32.7.
-- WES MILLER is 1-16 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games as the coach of UNC-GREENSBORO.
The average score was MILLER 66.3, OPPONENT 73.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (GEORGIA ST) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(56-4 since 1997.) (93.3%, +48.3 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -192.5
The average score in these games was: Team 75.3, Opponent 66.3 (Average point differential = +9)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0, +4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-0, +15 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-2, +15.6 units).
-- Play On - Road teams as an underdog or pick (EASTERN WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, in a game involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%).
(31-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.8%, +24.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (18-20 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7.4
The average score in these games was: Team 66.5, Opponent 67.8 (Average point differential = -1.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (40.5% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (52-40).
-- Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, with a losing record.
(28-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.8%, +22.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.2
The average score in these games was: Team 69.4, Opponent 69.8 (Average point differential = -0.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 14 (41.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (64-35).
-- Play Against - Home teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (UC-RIVERSIDE) - good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog, playing with 5 or 6 days rest.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 33.1, Opponent 27.8 (Average first half point differential = +5.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (91-70).
-- Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (LONG BEACH ST) - revenging a close loss versus opponent of 3 points or less, after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, with a losing record.
(24-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 34.5, Opponent 27.8 (Average first half point differential = +6.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-49).
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Thursday's Match-ups
#507 CONNECTICUT @ #508 CINCINNATI
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Cincinnati -5, Total: N/A) - Seventh-ranked Cincinnati has been winning lots of games – 14 in a row – but finally cracked the Top 10 in the rankings as it enters Thursday’s home contest against Connecticut. The streaking Bearcats have found respect hard to come by while dominating the first-year American Athletic Conference and haven’t lost since Dec. 14. The Huskies have dug themselves out of a midseason rut and have won six of their past seven games.
Connecticut expects to have forward DeAndre Daniels (ankle) back against the Bearcats after he missed the last contest, an 80-43 rout of Houston. Bearcats guard Sean Kilpatrick is on his way to conference player of the honors and said finally cracking the Top 10 won’t have any effect on the team’s approach. “We are still going to play with the chip on our shoulder like we have been all season,” Kilpatrick said. “The number next to our name doesn’t really mean much because any team on any night can really come out and bump you.”
•ABOUT CONNECTICUT (17-4 SU, 10-9-0 ATS, 5-3 AAC): Daniels is second on the team in scoring (13.4) and rebounds (5.6) and recently set career highs of 31 points and 12 rebounds against Temple before injuring himself in the ensuing game against Rutgers. He wasn’t needed in the blowout of Houston, but there is no disputing the Huskies badly need his presence against the Bearcats. “It’s very important,” forward Phillip Nolan said. “He’s a very important piece to our team.”
•ABOUT CINCINNATI (21-2 SU, 10-7-0 ATS, 10-0 AAC): Kilpatrick is averaging 19.4 points and has made 59 3-pointers while pacing the offensive attack. He stands third in school history with 1,891 career points and is 109 away from joining legendary Oscar Robertson as the only players in school history to reach 2,000. “He is maybe the most underrated great player that has ever played here,” Bearcats coach Mick Cronin said after Sunday’s 50-45 victory over South Florida. “I think he has definitely not gotten the attention.”
•PREGAME NOTES: The Huskies have won eight of the 12 meetings after the teams split two games last season.... Connecticut G Shabazz Napier (team-best 17.9 average) is 17 points away from surpassing Jerome Dyson (1,630 from 2006-10) for 13th place on the school’s career scoring list.... Bearcats F Justin Jackson has blocked 75 shots this season and is five away from becoming the fourth player in school history to reach 200 for a career.... UConn is 35-16 against the spread versus very good defensive teams - shooting percent defense of less than 39% after 15+ games since 1997.... Cincinnati is 5-14 versus the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the spread 561 times, while CINCINNATI covered the spread 411 times. *EDGE against the spread =CONNECTICUT. In 1000 simulated games, CINCINNATI won the game straight up 566 times, while CONNECTICUT won 410 times. In 1000 simulated games, CONNECTICUT covered the first half line 553 times, while CINCINNATI covered the first half line 447 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--CONNECTICUT is 7-3 against the spread versus CINCINNATI since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 7-4 straight up against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--CONNECTICUT is 6-4 versus the first half line when playing against CINCINNATI since 1997.
--6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Huskies are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Huskies are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Cincinnati.
--Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AAC.
--UCONN is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Over is 17-5-1 in UCONN last 23 road games.
--CIN is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games.
--Under is 43-12 in CIN last 55 overall.
--Under is 39-12 in CIN last 51 home games.
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#515 LSU @ #516 GEORGIA
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: LSU -3, Total: N/A) - For at least one week, LSU looked like an NCAA Tournament team. The Tigers will try to continue the positive momentum when they travel to Georgia for a Southeastern Conference contest Thursday. LSU is coming off a big week, as it earned home wins over Kentucky (87-82) and Arkansas (88-74) behind SEC Player of the Week Johnny O'Bryant and SEC Freshman of the Week Jordan Mickey.
The win over Kentucky was a major resume-builder for the Tigers, but their 2-3 road record hurts their case, and they can't afford another setback at Georgia. "I think we've got a ways to go," LSU coach Johnny Jones told reporters. "We certainly felt good about last week, but we're one game from the halfway point of nine conference games. When you get into February and where we are now, you want to start fine-tuning what you need to do and really start being at your best at what you can hang your hat on." The Bulldogs have lost three straight, including a 74-67 defeat at Auburn on Saturday, but they've been tough at home with wins over Alabama and Arkansas in league play.
•ABOUT LSU (14-6 SU, 6-7-3 ATS, 5-3 SEC): O'Bryant has been a monster of late, averaging 21.6 points and 8.2 rebounds over the past five games including back-to-back contests with 20-plus points. He and Mickey (13.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.8 blocks) are a formidable post duo that should be able to neutralize Georgia's strength on the boards. Point guard Anthony Hickey leads the SEC with a 3.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and dished out 12 assists with just one turnover in last week's victories.
•ABOUT GEORGIA (10-10 SU, 9-9-0 ATS, 4-4 SEC): The Bulldogs don't possess a lot of offensive firepower with guard Charles Mann (13.5 points, 2.9 assists) leading three players who average double-digit scoring. They're tough defensively, though, and their biggest weakness at that end — defending the perimeter — will be minimized against an LSU team that doesn't rely much on the outside shot. Georgia needs guard Kenny Gaines to get back into the swing of things after scoring only nine points against Auburn in his return to the lineup following a two-game absence with a bruised thigh.
•PREGAME NOTES: LSU leads the SEC and ranks in the top 10 in the nation in blocked shots (6.9 per game) and steals (9.2).... Georgia has not been outrebounded in any of its eight conference games, holding the edge on the boards in seven contests and tying Florida with 34 rebounds apiece.... Mickey has 75 blocked shots, putting him on pace to become the only LSU player other than Shaquille O'Neal (three times) to record 100 blocks in a season.... The Tigers are 10-1 against the spread versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game over the last three seasons.... The Bulldogs are 16-6 versus the spread after three consecutive conference games over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the spread 583 times, while LSU covered the spread 386 times. *EDGE against the spread =GEORGIA. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA won the game straight up 491 times, while LSU won 482 times. In 1000 simulated games, GEORGIA covered the first half line 575 times, while LSU covered the first half line 425 times. *EDGE against first half line =GEORGIA.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--LSU is 10-8 against the spread versus GEORGIA since 1997.
--LSU is 11-8 straight up against GEORGIA since 1997.
--6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--LSU is 11-8 versus the first half line when playing against GEORGIA since 1997.
--6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Tigers are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Tigers are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Georgia.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--LSU is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 Thu. games.
--LSU is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern.
--Over is 6-0 in LSU last 6 vs. Southeastern.
--Under is 11-3 in UGA last 14 overall.
--Over is 11-4 in UGA last 15 Thu. games.
--Under is 6-2 in UGA last 8 vs. Southeastern.
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#527 TEMPLE @ #528 SMU
(TV: 8:00 PM EST, ESPNEWS - Line: SMU -13.5, Total: N/A) - Temple's first stop on a Texas road trip is a visit Thursday to streaking Southern Methodist, which is coming off one its biggest wins under Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown. The Mustangs sprinted past then-No. 22 Memphis on Saturday to improve to 11-0 home. SMU has been impressive in front of its fans - including a 5-0 mark at newly-renovated Moody Coliseum - with a plus-21 scoring margin and 53.7 percent shooting clip.
Brown is 3-0 against Temple during his tenures at Kansas and UCLA and is familiar with the Philadelphia area after coaching the Philadelphia 76ers for six years. The struggling Owls have lost 11 of 13 and are 0-4 in American Athletic Conference road games despite having four of the league's top 12 scorers. Temple scores plenty of points but ranks at the bottom of the AAC in rebounding, scoring defense and field-goal percentage defense.
•ABOUT TEMPLE (6-14 SU, 8-9-1 ATS, 1-7 AAC): The Owls are the only Division I team with four players averaging at least 14 points, led by Dalton Pepper's 17.7 points and AAC-leading three 3-pointers made per game. Will Cummings (16.9 points) is averaging 19.8 points in four games since returning from a concussion and Anthony Lee (14.1 points) leads the AAC with 9.1 rebounds. Quenton DeCosey (15.8 points) has scored in double figures in 19 games for Temple, which has had fewer than six turnovers in each of its last two games.
•ABOUT SOUTHERN METHODIST (17-5 SU, 12-6-0 ATS, 6-3 AAC): Nic Moore leads the Mustangs, who have won six of seven, with 13.9 points and Markus Kennedy adds 12.1 points and 7.4 rebounds. The Mustangs have outrebounded 19 opponents and are plus-7.4 on the glass this season. SMU is ranked third nationally in field-goal defense percentage (37.2) and lead the league in shooting (49.1).
•PREGAME NOTES: The NCAA provided a waiver to allow SMU to fly Kennedy home to Philadelphia following Saturday's win against Memphis so he could surprise his mother before she was deployed by the Air Force for eight months.... SMU has outscored all but one opponent in the paint and averages a 35.7-20.5 advantage in the lane.... Temple's 90-81 win over SMU in the 1956 NCAA Final Four third-place game was their last meeting.... The Mustangs are 11-4 against the spread versus good ball handling teams - committing less than 14 turnovers/game this season.... The Owls are 20-8 versus the spread in road games after having lost three of their last four games since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SMU covered the spread 525 times, while TEMPLE covered the spread 475 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, SMU won the game straight up 859 times, while TEMPLE won 122 times. In 1000 simulated games, TEMPLE covered the first half line 533 times, while SMU covered the first half line 428 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
All games in this series since 1997: There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
•RECENT TRENDS
--TEM is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
--TEM is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.
--Under is 9-2 in TEM last 11 road games.
--SMU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
--Under is 9-4 in SMU last 13 overall.
--Under is 17-5 in SMU last 22 Thu. games.
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#537 WASHINGTON @ #538 UTAH
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Utah -9.5, Total: N/A) - Washington leading scorer C.J. Wilcox hopes to leave with better memories after he visits Utah for the second time in his career Thursday night. Wilcox, a native of Pleasant Grove, Utah who led the state in scoring as a high school junior six years ago, had one of the worst games of his career two years in his first Pac-12 game at Utah, scoring five points on 2-for-13 shooting in the 18-point loss. Wilcox has continued to elevate his offensive numbers across the board this season, averaging 19.8 points, second in the conference, and shooting 60.5 percent from the field over the last three games.
Utah point guard Delon Wright scored a season-high 27 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in the first meeting with the Huskies this season, a 59-57 win by host Washington on Jan. 8. Wright is coming off a 17-point, 11-assist effort in an overtime loss Saturday against Colorado, putting a triple-double realistically within reach. The player who needs to catch fire for the Utes is forward Jordan Loveridge, who is 6-for-25 in the last two games, including 1-for-9 from 3-point range; he had a season-low four points in Saturday’s loss to the Buffaloes.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON (13-9 SU, 9-12-0 ATS, 5-4 Pac-12): The Huskies can’t be pleased after losing to 11th-place Washington State on Saturday, which kept the Huskies out of a three-way tie for second. Freshman point guard Nigel Williams-Goss had been steady with the ball lately - highlighted by his 32-point, zero-turnover performance Jan. 25 against Oregon State - but committed six turnovers against the Cougars. Washington needs more from shooting guard Andrew Andrews, who’s averaging 14.2 points in the five conference wins and eight points in the four losses.
•ABOUT UTAH (14-7 SU, 12-3-1 ATS, 3-6 Pac-12): Brandon Taylor is another player whose individual success seems to be tied to the team 's performance. Before scoring 17 points in the overtime loss against Colorado, the Utes were 7-0 this season when Taylor scored in double figures. The sophomore guard had the breakout game of his career against Washington last season, producing then-career highs of 19 points and six assists in the 74-65 win.
•PREGAME NOTES: Utah's seven losses have all come on the road, by a combined 26 points.... Wilcox’s father, Craig Wilcox, played basketball for BYU from 1993-95.... Utah holds opponents to 29.2 percent on 3-pointers, tops in the Pac-12.... Washington is 11-3 against the spread versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last two seasons.... Utah is 14-4 versus the spread versus good free throw shooting teams - making more than 72% of their attempts over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, UTAH covered the spread 523 times, while WASHINGTON covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, UTAH won the game straight up 783 times, while WASHINGTON won 191 times. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the first half line 527 times, while UTAH covered the first half line 473 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--UTAH is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against UTAH since 1997.
--3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 3-2 versus the first half line when playing against UTAH since 1997.
--2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WASH is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thu. games.
--Under is 20-8-1 in WASH last 29 road games.
--Under is 14-5-1 in WASH last 20 vs. Pacific-12.
--UTAH is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
--UTAH is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
--Under is 7-3 in UTAH last 10 Thu. games.
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#539 OREGON @ #540 ARIZONA
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Arizona -10.5, Total: N/A) - So much has changed for Arizona in the last week. The Wildcats are no longer undefeated, no longer ranked No. 1 and no longer have the services of versatile forward Brandon Ashley, who broke his foot in Saturday's loss to California. However, Sean Miller's team is still an impressive 21-1 with a more-than-respectable No. 3 ranking and plenty of talented players to make up for the loss of Ashley as the Wildcats host Oregon on Thursday.
"That's the hard part of sports," Miller said last weekend, via USA Today. "Things can be taken from you on one play." Ashley, a sophomore averaging 11.5 points and 5.8 rebounds, was injured in the opening minutes of the loss to the Bears - a 60-58 setback in which the Wildcats shot just 32.3 percent, including 2-of-11 from 3-point range. The Ducks have endured plenty of their own struggles in 2014, but they have rallied to win two of their last three games sandwiched around a hard-fought, two-point loss to UCLA.
•ABOUT OREGON (15-6 SU, 9-9-2 ATS, 3-6 Pac-12): A Ducks team that once was 13-0 is now fighting for its NCAA Tournament life following a stretch of six losses in seven games prior to Saturday's 12-point win over USC. Joseph Young led the way with 21 points and a career-high six steals against the Trojans, giving the junior guard 46 points and 11 steals over his last two games. Young's backcourt mate, Jason Calliste, has shot 60.7 percent over his last six games since enduring a rough stretch in early January.
•ABOUT ARIZONA (21-1 SU, 13-8-0 ATS, 8-1 Pac-12): The absence of Ashley should mean more playing time for freshman forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a McDonald's All-American, and perhaps sophomore guard Gabe York as well. "Maybe a three-guard lineup, that's something we have to look at," said Miller, whose team has not lost at home in nearly a year (a 77-69 defeat to Cal on Feb. 10, 2013). One player who definitely needs to score more is highly regarded freshman Aaron Gordon (11.8 points), who has emerged as a solid defensive presence but has been inconsistent offensively, as evidenced by his 9-of-37 shooting over the last three games.
•PREGAME NOTES: Since scoring 91 points against Arizona State on Jan. 16, Arizona has failed to reach 70 in any of its last four games.... The Wildcats lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense (40.4) on two-point attempts.... Following 10 straight games scoring in double figures, Oregon G Damyean Dotson has not reached 10 points in any of his last five contests, averaging 7.2 points during that stretch.... The Ducks are 5-16 against the spread versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last two seasons.... The Wildcats are 16-3 versus the spread in home games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds since 1997.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA covered the spread 508 times, while OREGON covered the spread 492 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA won the game straight up 777 times, while OREGON won 200 times. In 1000 simulated games, OREGON covered the first half line 518 times, while ARIZONA covered the first half line 441 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--OREGON is 16-15 against the spread versus ARIZONA since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 20-11 straight up against OREGON since 1997.
--13 of 22 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON since 1997.
--12 of 20 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Ducks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.
--Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona.
--Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORE is 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 Thu. games.
--ORE is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--ORE is 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 vs. Pacific-12.
--ARIZ is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Thu. games.
--ARIZ is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games.
--Under is 37-16-1 in ARIZ last 54 overall.
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#541 PENN ST @ #542 MICHIGAN ST
(TV: 9:00 PM EST, ESPN2 - Line: Michigan State -13.5, Total: N/A) - Eighth-ranked Michigan State did not have a lot of luck outside of conference play over the weekend but is looking to get right back into a winning streak when it returns to Big Ten action by hosting Penn State on Thursday. The Spartans headed to New York for a showcase against Georgetown at Madison Square Garden on Saturday and the loss of Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson appeared to catch up with the team. The Nittany Lions are winners of three straight.
Penn State shocked Ohio State in overtime the last time it took to the road Jan. 29 and is gaining confidence with each victory. “We were 0-6 a couple of weeks ago,” Nittany Lions coach Patrick Chambers told reporters. “What these kids have done to turn this around is just kept working, kept digging, kept getting better and they really just bought into what we’re doing.” Part of that 0-6 start in Big Ten play for Penn State was a 79-63 home loss to Michigan State in the conference opener Dec. 31.
•ABOUT PENN STATE (12-10 SU, 10-8-1 ATS, 3-6 Big Ten): The Nittany Lions are enjoying their first three-game win streak in the Big Ten since 2009 behind the play of D.J. Newbill, who is averaging 20 points in that span. “We are definitely on a high right now,” Newbill said. “We’re playing some great basketball. The main secret to our success is that we are helping each other out. We are making mistakes but we are not pointing fingers.” Newbill scored 25 points in the win at Ohio State and provided help on the interior with seven rebounds as Penn State outrebounded Purdue in a 79-68 triumph on Sunday.
•ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (19-3 SU, 11-8-2 ATS, 8-1 Big Ten): The Spartans dominated the boards 45-26 in the first meeting with the Nittany Lions, with Payne and Dawson combining for 19 rebounds and 25 points. Payne (foot) sat out the last six games but is close to a return and could be on the floor for limited minutes Thursday. Dawson (hand) is further away and his absence has been felt with Michigan State going 1-2 over the last three games. Coach Tom Izzo questioned his team’s toughness in the absence of Payne and Dawson after getting outrebounded and beat up inside in Saturday’s 64-60 loss to Georgetown.
•PREGAME NOTES: Michigan State G Gary Harris is averaging 20.6 points on 54 percent shooting in the last five games.... The Spartans have won 19 of 20 meetings between the schools in East Lansing, Michigan.... The Nittany Lions have held their last four opponents to a combined 37 percent shooting.... Michigan State is 14-4 versus the spread in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last three seasons.... Penn State is 9-2 against the spread in road games after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the spread 523 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the spread 477 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MICHIGAN ST won the game straight up 841 times, while PENN ST won 140 times. In 1000 simulated games, PENN ST covered the first half line 544 times, while MICHIGAN ST covered the first half line 407 times. *EDGE against first half line =PENN ST.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--MICHIGAN ST is 15-12 against the spread versus PENN ST since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 22-5 straight up against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--MICHIGAN ST is 15-12 versus the first half line when playing against PENN ST since 1997.
--11 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.
--Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Michigan St.
--Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PSU is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 road games.
--PSU is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
--Over is 8-3 in PSU last 11 road games.
--MSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
--Under is 4-1 in MSU last 5 Thursday games.
--Under is 6-0 in MSU last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
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#557 OREGON ST @ #558 ARIZONA ST
(TV: 11:00 PM EST, Fox Sports 1 - Line: Arizona State -7.5, Total: N/A) - Arizona State and Oregon State are two of the five Pac-12 teams knotted with 5-4 conference marks at the halfway point, making it a pivotal affair when the Sun Devils host the Bears on Thursday. The two squads are just one game behind the two teams who share second place – UCLA and California – in the jumbled-up conference. Oregon State just defeated the Bruins for its fourth win in five games while Arizona State had a three-game win streak end with a loss to Stanford.
Part of Oregon State’s surprising success lies in the emergence of freshman point guard Hallice Cooke, who scored a season-best 20 points in Sunday’s home win over UCLA. Cooke is averaging 10.6 points in seven games since becoming a starter and is making scoring machine Roberto Nelson (21.8) even more dangerous. The Sun Devils lost at Stanford despite 24 points from star guard Jahii Carson but are a solid 11-1 at home.
•ABOUT OREGON STATE (13-8 SU, 9-8-1 ATS, 5-4 Pac-12): Cooke is shooting a spectacular 53.8 percent from 3-point range – tops in the Pac-12 – and is looking to become the first freshman to lead the conference in that category since UCLA’s Jason Kapono shot 47.4 percent in 1999-2000. Cooke has shown poise beyond his years and coach Craig Robinson feels he is doing a masterful job of running the offense. “He doesn’t seem like this is his first year, it looks like he has been around the block,” Robinson said after the UCLA contest. “I’m really excited for the future for him. It’s not an accident that these things are working for him because he’s in the gym all the time.”
•ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (16-6 SU, 11-9-0 ATS, 5-4 PAC-12): Carson, a sophomore, is on a roll with a 22.8 scoring average over the last five games, and four of his eight 20-point outings have come during the stretch. Carson averages a team-best 19.1 points and backcourt mate Jermaine Marshall (15.3) has proved to be a solid complement while knocking down a team-high 57 3-pointers. The Sun Devils have one other double-digit scorer in center Jordan Bachynski (11.4), who leads the squad in rebounding (8.9) and blocked shots (91).
•PREGAME NOTES: Arizona State has won nine of the past 10 meetings.... Nelson has strung together six straight 20-point outings and needs 22 points to pass Charlie Sitton (1,561 from 1980-84) and move into fifth place on Oregon State’s career scoring list.... Bachynski is six blocks shy of matching the Pac-12 career record held by Arizona’s Anthony Cook (278 from 1985-89).... The Beavers are 0-7 versus the spread in road games versus good 3-point shooting teams - making more than 37% of their attempts over the last three seasons.... The Sun Devils are 2-16 against the spread after one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the spread 560 times, while OREGON ST covered the spread 440 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST won the game straight up 735 times, while OREGON ST won 241 times. In 1000 simulated games, ARIZONA ST covered the first half line 506 times, while OREGON ST covered the first half line 451 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--ARIZONA ST is 17-14 against the spread versus OREGON ST since 1997.
--ARIZONA ST is 22-9 straight up against OREGON ST since 1997.
--10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--ARIZONA ST is 17-14 versus the first half line when playing against OREGON ST since 1997.
--9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Beavers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
--Beavers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Arizona St.
--Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Arizona St.
--Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--ORST is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
--Under is 3-1-1 in ORST last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
--Over is 8-2 in ORST last 10 games following a ATS win.
--Under is 37-17-1 in ASU last 55 overall.
--Under is 16-6-1 in ASU last 23 Thu. games.
--Under is 37-16-3 in ASU last 56 home games.
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