Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Arizona -2.5 over WASHINGTON STATE: The Cats are rolling right now as they come winners of in 5 of their last 6 games, which includes a 24 point home win over Wazzu back in January and BB road wins over Cal and Stanford. Arizona has been playing some really good defense of late as they have allowed just 60.8 ppg on 39.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Arizona has had a really good time within the Pac 12 as they are 9-4 and have held those opponents to just 59.5 ppg on 39.1 % shooting, while scoring 68.3 ppg, which creates an +8.8 scoring margin. Washington State has not been that great in the conference as they are just 5-8 and have been outscored by 3.4 ppg in those games. They have played well at home this year, where they are 9-2 and have scored 75 ppg, but in their last 2 at home they are just 1-1 and have scored just 60 ppg in the two games. The Cougars are allowing 13 ppg more in conference play than the Cats and i feel that is where the game will be won, with defense. Arizona is playing much better than the Cougars right now and they should walk away with a solid win here. KEY TRENDS--- ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while WASHINGTON ST is 6-17 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
MICHIGAN STATE -5.5 over Wisconsin: When this line came out last night i jumped on it as I felt the Spartans should have been favored by 8+ in this one. Sure the Badgers can play excellent defense, but this team just can't score enough to think they have a chance at keeping it close vs a very good Spartans team. Wisconsin is one of the better defensive teams in the nation as they have allowed just 50.3 ppg overall and 55.6 ppg on the road, but their defensive play isn't in question here. We know they can defense, but this team just can't score. The Badgers come in averaging just 59.2 ppg on 39.1 % shooting overall and 29.% shooting from beyond the arc in their last 5 games, while in their Big 10 road games (Regulation Only) they have averaged just 55.6 ppg. Now here is where it gets really bad for the Badgers. The Spartans have been playing better defense than them of late. Sparty comes in allowing just 50.6 ppg on a mere 35% shooting in their last 5 games and that includes allowing just 48 points on 26% shooting to a very good Ohio State offense in their last game. The Buckeyes average 70+ ppg on the year so what will this Spartans defense do to the pathetic Badgers attack tonight? MSU is 6-0 in Big 10 home games and have outscored those opponents by 20 ppg. Sparty averages 79.8 ppg at home, including 77.8 ppg in their Big 10 home games. ok so we know that both teams play great defense, but the Spartans can score on the Badgers, but they Badgers sorry ass offensive play will not come up with nearly enough points to keep this one close.
California/ Oregon Under 140: This has been a bit of a high scoring series over the years, but thanks to some solid defense by both teams, this year will be different. The Cal Bears have allowed just 60 ppg overall on the year and 61.8 within the Pac-12, but at home on the year they have allowed a mere 54.2 ppg, including just 57.6 ppg in the Pac-12 home games. Cal's Pac 12 home games have averaged just 126.3 ppg on the year, while their conference games overall 134.2 ppg. Oregon has been playing average defense this year as they have allowed 66.5 ppg overall and 65.2 ppg in their last 9 conference games, so they too have the ability to keep the scoring down in this one. Both teams have averaged 70+ ppg on the year, but this is in the Bears home court and with the way they play defense at home I just don't see this one getting out of hand. They will control the pace and not look to run with this team. while Oregon will come up with enough stops to keep the Cal offense from piling up too many points. I don't expect either team to hit 70 points in this one.
Florida International/ Ark Little Rock Over 125: Writeup to come. (Added)
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
DENVER -10 over UL Lafayette:This Denver team is tough at hoe, where they have gone 11-2 and have outscored their opponents by 10.2 ppg, including going 4-1 in the Sun Belt at home, with the 4 wins all coming by at least 13 points. UL Laff is a game ahead of Denver in the Sun Belt standings so this is a huge game for the home team and I expect them to take this game by 13+ points as well.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Vanderbilt -3.5 over OLE MISS: Vanderbilt's scoring tandem has led it to a 7-2 record in January. After a slow 1-2 start to February, the Commodores are poised for another run. Ole Miss could slide into a four-way tie for third place in the league if it picks up the victory. Stopping Holloway is going to be difficult for Vandy, but the Rebels will have even more trouble stopping ******* and Taylor.
NC State/ Duke Over 151.5: Play Over - All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (DUKE) having won 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent that has won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. This play is 71-34 the last 5 seasons.