Larry Ness' Poinsettia Bowl Showdown (Navy / SD St)
My 9* play is on Navy at 8:00 ET.
San Diego State will be playing in its first bowl game since 1998 when the Aztecs host Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, this home field advantage for the Aztecs will not be as significant when playing Navy as it would be against most other bowl teams. San Diego is home to the largest naval base on the West Coast and the Midshipmen expect plenty of support for this game. This Navy squad returns 13 starters from last season's team that won the Texas Bowl over a young but talented Missouri team. This season, the Midshipmen won their last four games as well as seven of their last eight games, culminating in their NINTH consecutive win over Army on December 11th. The fact that Navy will have played less than two weeks ago should help ensure that the team is sharp for this contest (rare in bowl situations). San Diego State, on the other hand, has not played since its 48-14 over UNLV back on November 27th. With almost a full month in-between games, coach Brady Hoke's squad may need to knock off some of the rust during this game. The Aztecs finished the season tied with Air Force and BYU for third place in the Mountain West with a 5-3 conference mark. San Diego State prides themselves on an 8-4 overall record where its four losses were by less than 15 combined points. Navy supporters can respond with the fact that none of its of its three losses came by more than EIGHT points. San Diego State will be challenged by the Midshipmen's spread triple option that averages 288.9 YPG on the ground (5th in the FBS) on 5.4 YPC with 36 rushing TDs. The Aztecs allowed more than 140 rushing YPG but perhaps their contest against another service academy's spread triple option offense is more reflective as to how they will do against Navy. While San Diego State held on to defeat the Air Force by a 27-25 score, despite being outgained by 31 yards of offense, the Falcons gained 312 yards on the ground (5.0 YPC) and 487 total yards against the Aztecs defense in that meeting. While the Air Force offense is similar to what Navy will offer, one key difference will be the presence of QB Ricky Dobbs. Not only is Dobbs a master at orchestrating this triple option attack, but he can be deceptively dangerous with his arm. Dobbs passed for 186 yards on JUST eleven passes in the Army game and I fully expect coach Ken Niumatalolo to have some surprises up his sleeve with Dobbs and his arm. The Midshipmen's rushing game has the extra-benefit of burning time off the clock to keep its opponent's offense off the field, which will be important here. San Diego State has a strong balanced attack behind QB Ryan Lindley and freshman RB Ronnie Hillman. It ranks 19th in the FBS in total yards (448.5 YPG) and 20th in the FBS in scoring (35 PPG). However, Navy's defense was solid all season, holding teams to 376.8 total YPG along with allowing a modest 22.3 PPG (38th in the FBS). Ultimately, turnovers may play the deciding role in this game. Uncharacteristically, Navy lost all three of its fumbles while Dobbs threw an interception to contribute them losing the turnover battle with Army by a minus-two margin. However, this is unlikely to happen to them again, as the Midshipmen rank 21st in the FBS by averaging a plus-0.67 turnover margin per game. San Diego State, on the other hand, endured a minus-0.58 turnover margin per game which was 101st in the FBS. The Aztecs extended layoff from their last game may exacerbate this concern. Since Paul Johnson returned Navy to football prominence in 2003 (and now under Ken Niumatalolo), Navy has been a terrific underdog plus is a quite impressive 42-21 ATS in its last 63 games away from Annapolis. This is Navy's EIGHTH consecutive bowl game (its third Poinsettia Bowl) while SDSU plays in just the school's sixth. The Aztecs last won a bowl game in the now-defunct Pasadena Bowl back in 1969 (school's ONLY bowl win), 28-7 over Boston U (not, Boston College, mind you!). Doesn't an underdog HAVE to cover a bowl one of these times? Navy seems to me to be the PERFECT one to do just that!
My 9* play is on Navy at 8:00 ET.
San Diego State will be playing in its first bowl game since 1998 when the Aztecs host Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, this home field advantage for the Aztecs will not be as significant when playing Navy as it would be against most other bowl teams. San Diego is home to the largest naval base on the West Coast and the Midshipmen expect plenty of support for this game. This Navy squad returns 13 starters from last season's team that won the Texas Bowl over a young but talented Missouri team. This season, the Midshipmen won their last four games as well as seven of their last eight games, culminating in their NINTH consecutive win over Army on December 11th. The fact that Navy will have played less than two weeks ago should help ensure that the team is sharp for this contest (rare in bowl situations). San Diego State, on the other hand, has not played since its 48-14 over UNLV back on November 27th. With almost a full month in-between games, coach Brady Hoke's squad may need to knock off some of the rust during this game. The Aztecs finished the season tied with Air Force and BYU for third place in the Mountain West with a 5-3 conference mark. San Diego State prides themselves on an 8-4 overall record where its four losses were by less than 15 combined points. Navy supporters can respond with the fact that none of its of its three losses came by more than EIGHT points. San Diego State will be challenged by the Midshipmen's spread triple option that averages 288.9 YPG on the ground (5th in the FBS) on 5.4 YPC with 36 rushing TDs. The Aztecs allowed more than 140 rushing YPG but perhaps their contest against another service academy's spread triple option offense is more reflective as to how they will do against Navy. While San Diego State held on to defeat the Air Force by a 27-25 score, despite being outgained by 31 yards of offense, the Falcons gained 312 yards on the ground (5.0 YPC) and 487 total yards against the Aztecs defense in that meeting. While the Air Force offense is similar to what Navy will offer, one key difference will be the presence of QB Ricky Dobbs. Not only is Dobbs a master at orchestrating this triple option attack, but he can be deceptively dangerous with his arm. Dobbs passed for 186 yards on JUST eleven passes in the Army game and I fully expect coach Ken Niumatalolo to have some surprises up his sleeve with Dobbs and his arm. The Midshipmen's rushing game has the extra-benefit of burning time off the clock to keep its opponent's offense off the field, which will be important here. San Diego State has a strong balanced attack behind QB Ryan Lindley and freshman RB Ronnie Hillman. It ranks 19th in the FBS in total yards (448.5 YPG) and 20th in the FBS in scoring (35 PPG). However, Navy's defense was solid all season, holding teams to 376.8 total YPG along with allowing a modest 22.3 PPG (38th in the FBS). Ultimately, turnovers may play the deciding role in this game. Uncharacteristically, Navy lost all three of its fumbles while Dobbs threw an interception to contribute them losing the turnover battle with Army by a minus-two margin. However, this is unlikely to happen to them again, as the Midshipmen rank 21st in the FBS by averaging a plus-0.67 turnover margin per game. San Diego State, on the other hand, endured a minus-0.58 turnover margin per game which was 101st in the FBS. The Aztecs extended layoff from their last game may exacerbate this concern. Since Paul Johnson returned Navy to football prominence in 2003 (and now under Ken Niumatalolo), Navy has been a terrific underdog plus is a quite impressive 42-21 ATS in its last 63 games away from Annapolis. This is Navy's EIGHTH consecutive bowl game (its third Poinsettia Bowl) while SDSU plays in just the school's sixth. The Aztecs last won a bowl game in the now-defunct Pasadena Bowl back in 1969 (school's ONLY bowl win), 28-7 over Boston U (not, Boston College, mind you!). Doesn't an underdog HAVE to cover a bowl one of these times? Navy seems to me to be the PERFECT one to do just that!
David Malinsky
4* CAROLINA over PITTSBURGH
It is rare that we find a pointspread this high in a game that brings both play-on and play-against elements, and that makes it easy for us to get in play.
Carolina brings much more to the table than the usual underdog of this range the defense has had a solid season, and the ground game has actually been among the NFL’s elite, especially when we factor the lack of support from the passing attack. The rush defense is allowing 4.0 per carry, which you can live with, while the pass defense is holding opposing QB’s to a 76.8 rating, with more INT’s (17) than TD passes allowed (16). Overland they have piled up 1,635 yards at 4.2 per attempt, keyed by 668 and 4.5 from Jonathan Stewart and 435 at 4.5 from Mike Goodson, a nice one-two combo that can change the pace. Yes, the QB play from Jimmy Clausen has been poor, but that is also what creates the impression of this team being much worse than they are. With an adequate passing game the Panthers could have played .500 football. Yet even through their 2-12 slide we have seen no sign of them losing the will to compete, and if anything believe that their win on Sunday, in what was the last game in Charlotte for head coach John Fox, buoys them to a solid effort tonight. Fox was presented the game ball after that win, and several players used it as a platform to talk about how much respect he carries through the locker room.
From Jon Beason “He’s a player’s coach. He knows when to be a coach, when to be a friend and when to be a father.” And tackle Jordan Gross: “I think it’s special when you have a coach that cares about you as much as he does.” And Jeff King: “He’s just one of those head coaches you want to rally around. He doesn’t ask you to do anything he doesn’t do.”
Fox and the Panthers can use that focus to compete all the way here against a Pittsburgh team that simply is not all that special right now. We noted in this week’s edition of Verities & Balderdash the major gap in defensive performance when Troy Polamalu has been out (29-8 with him vs. 5-7 without, allowing 8.7 more points per game), and while the numbers seem extreme for a single player, note that in most of his absences the past two seasons fellow Pro Bowler Aaron Smith has also been out. And that is the case again tonight. Meanwhile the offense has only reached the end zone four times in the last four games, with a patchwork OL already allowing 38 sacks. They will play well enough to win here, but are hard-pressed to build a margin in a game that they simply do not physically dominate the way that this line is projecting.
4* CAROLINA over PITTSBURGH
It is rare that we find a pointspread this high in a game that brings both play-on and play-against elements, and that makes it easy for us to get in play.
Carolina brings much more to the table than the usual underdog of this range the defense has had a solid season, and the ground game has actually been among the NFL’s elite, especially when we factor the lack of support from the passing attack. The rush defense is allowing 4.0 per carry, which you can live with, while the pass defense is holding opposing QB’s to a 76.8 rating, with more INT’s (17) than TD passes allowed (16). Overland they have piled up 1,635 yards at 4.2 per attempt, keyed by 668 and 4.5 from Jonathan Stewart and 435 at 4.5 from Mike Goodson, a nice one-two combo that can change the pace. Yes, the QB play from Jimmy Clausen has been poor, but that is also what creates the impression of this team being much worse than they are. With an adequate passing game the Panthers could have played .500 football. Yet even through their 2-12 slide we have seen no sign of them losing the will to compete, and if anything believe that their win on Sunday, in what was the last game in Charlotte for head coach John Fox, buoys them to a solid effort tonight. Fox was presented the game ball after that win, and several players used it as a platform to talk about how much respect he carries through the locker room.
From Jon Beason “He’s a player’s coach. He knows when to be a coach, when to be a friend and when to be a father.” And tackle Jordan Gross: “I think it’s special when you have a coach that cares about you as much as he does.” And Jeff King: “He’s just one of those head coaches you want to rally around. He doesn’t ask you to do anything he doesn’t do.”
Fox and the Panthers can use that focus to compete all the way here against a Pittsburgh team that simply is not all that special right now. We noted in this week’s edition of Verities & Balderdash the major gap in defensive performance when Troy Polamalu has been out (29-8 with him vs. 5-7 without, allowing 8.7 more points per game), and while the numbers seem extreme for a single player, note that in most of his absences the past two seasons fellow Pro Bowler Aaron Smith has also been out. And that is the case again tonight. Meanwhile the offense has only reached the end zone four times in the last four games, with a patchwork OL already allowing 38 sacks. They will play well enough to win here, but are hard-pressed to build a margin in a game that they simply do not physically dominate the way that this line is projecting.
The Duke's Sports
Pittsburgh (-14) for 1.5 Units
What makes us even play this game is the fact that the Steelers are off a loss and matchup well against a depleted Panthers team. The Steelers haven't been a good double digit home favorite at 4-11 ATS; however, Pittsburgh has dispatched other lightweight opponents at home this season. Given the fact that the Steelers are competing with Baltimore for the AFC North crown, we'll have a small play on Pittsburgh. The Panthers are primarily a running team with stuggling rookie Clausen at the helm. And Pittsburgh is the #1 defense against the run. Even without Polamalu, the Steelers should deliver here. And offensively, Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller is back to add another target for Big Ben. Steelers the call.
Pittsburgh (-14) for 1.5 Units
What makes us even play this game is the fact that the Steelers are off a loss and matchup well against a depleted Panthers team. The Steelers haven't been a good double digit home favorite at 4-11 ATS; however, Pittsburgh has dispatched other lightweight opponents at home this season. Given the fact that the Steelers are competing with Baltimore for the AFC North crown, we'll have a small play on Pittsburgh. The Panthers are primarily a running team with stuggling rookie Clausen at the helm. And Pittsburgh is the #1 defense against the run. Even without Polamalu, the Steelers should deliver here. And offensively, Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller is back to add another target for Big Ben. Steelers the call.
Pat Hawkins
Navy vs San Diego State
Pick: Navy +4.5
San Diego St caps a great season with a bowl game in their home stadium, does this mean that the Aztec's might not be so motivated to play Navy? Navy should be able to run the ball with ease against this defense, the triple option shredded San Diego St when they played a similar offense in Air Force. Military teams are 17-3 ATS when playing opponents with a winning % of .600 or better, look for a great game, grab the points.
Navy vs San Diego State
Pick: Navy +4.5
San Diego St caps a great season with a bowl game in their home stadium, does this mean that the Aztec's might not be so motivated to play Navy? Navy should be able to run the ball with ease against this defense, the triple option shredded San Diego St when they played a similar offense in Air Force. Military teams are 17-3 ATS when playing opponents with a winning % of .600 or better, look for a great game, grab the points.
