Service Plays Thursday 12/23/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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Thank you, wilheim




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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dunkel

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 10:00 a.m. EST (12/13)
Game 211-212: Navy at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 94.174; San Diego State 90.373
Dunkel Line: Navy by 4; 55
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 6; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+6); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI

SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl
at San Diego, CA
SAN DIEGO STATE 35, Navy 32

 

[jaychen]

JustinCover


Carolina Panthers+15 Merry Christmas Just For T $_______


5unit parlay

Carolina panthers
Orlando Magic
Sacramento Kings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What Bettors Need To Know: Panthers at Steelers

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 37)

Big NFL pointspreads - like in Thursday night’s Panthers-Steelers matchup at blustery Heinz Field - can be very difficult to handicap.

Clearly, the Steelers (10-4, 8-6 ATS) are by far the superior team and very capable of whipping the Panthers by more than two touchdowns. Four of the Steelers’ 10 wins have come by more than 14 points. Plus, the 2-12 Panthers are about as bad as it gets.

Carolina (2-12, 4-10 ATS) has failed to win on the road this season, losing by an average score of 25-16. Overwhelmed rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen is at the controls of the worst offense in the league. Six of the Panthers’ 12 losses have come by more than two touchdowns.

The Steelers, who have clinched a playoff berth, still have plenty to play for, including the AFC North, which they can capture by beating the Panthers and the Browns next week.

The Panthers, on the other hand, haven’t been playing for anything other than draft position for months.

But even with all that, it’s still an uneasy feeling to lay more than two touchdowns in the NFL. Double-digit favorites are just 7-10 against the spread this season.

The Line

The Steelers opened as 14-point favorites, but the two touchdowns didn’t scare away Pittsburgh bettors. The number was bumped up to 14.5 at most outlets, with a few 15s available as of Wednesday.

Carolina has covered in four of its last five games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 December games.

The Steelers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

The Total

The total opened at 37 and was holding steady as of Wednesday afternoon.

Snow is forecast throughout Thursday, although the accumulation is expected to be moderate. The wind is also expected to be moderate, around 11-15 mph.

The Steelers’ reputation as a run-oriented team with a stingy defense has produced a profitable run of overs. The over is 50-24-3 (65 percent) in the Steelers lasts 77 games as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh is scoring 21.9 and surrendering 15.7 points per game. Carolina is scoring 13.1 and allowing 25 points per game.

The teams last met in 2006 with the Steelers winning 37-3.

Injury Report

Troy Polamalu, the Steelers’ All-Pro safety, missed Tuesday’s practice with an ankle injury and is not expected to play. Backup defensive end Aaron Smith also is doubtful after missing practice this week with a triceps injury.

For the Panthers, defensive end Tyler Brayton (hip), running back Mike Goodson (illness), fullback Tony Fiametta (ankle) and corner Captain Munnerlyn missed Tuesday’s practice.

Carolina is expected to get starting corner Chris Gamble (ankle) back. Gamble missed the last three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Best NFL Bet

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.5, 37)

It has been an abysmal season for the Carolina Panthers, as they slowly solidify their spot as the worst team in the National Football League with only one win against a bevy of losses. Going back and forth between Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore has certainly not paid dividends for the Carolina coaching staff, and it appears as though the Panthers are now playing for the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. It will be interesting to see how they come out to play in Pittsburgh where the Steelers await their arrival. Unlike the Panthers, the Steelers are enjoying a great deal of success this year due to the outstanding play of the defense. This unit is holding opponents to some very low numbers while the Pittsburgh offense continues to make attempts at bettering themselves sooner rather than later. It will be a fun game to watch, to say the least, but it appears as though the Pittsburgh Steelers will be the ones getting your Bonus Bet win at the end of the day.

Jimmy Clausen has been flat out awful as the Panthers quarterback up to this point in the season. Through 224 passing attempts, Clausen has thrown for only one touchdown against seven interceptions. The fact of the matter is that Carolina might be searching for another quarterback in this year's Draft even after taking Clausen in the second round last year. It will now be up to Carolina's front office to decide what the move will be at this particular point in the franchise's history. Don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh jump on them from the opening kickoff and not let up off the pedal, as they take it to the Panthers to get you a free wager victory.

Bookmakers have certainly liked the Steelers this season, as they are not really a team that covers a lot of spreads, but they win enough games that the public continues to wager on them. In this game, though, they will prove to be too powerful for the Panthers to overcome. Like is usually the case, it all starts with the Pittsburgh defense, which is once again one of the best in the entire NFL. Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior form a formidable combination on the field, and they are backed up by one of the best safeties in football history in Troy Polamalu. If Pittsburgh can keep Jonathon Stewart from having a big game, it would not be a surprise to see the Steelers win by 20-30 points. That is what the difference in talent levels will get you, and it certainly will help the Steelers get a Bonus Bet win on their home field.

With the season quickly drawing to a close, this game features two franchises going in opposite directions. Bookmakers have to be pleased with the results that they have gotten out of both of these teams against the spread this year. Now, it will be up to the Pittsburgh Steelers to prove that they have enough mettle to make a big impact in the Playoffs this year to get head coach Mike Tomlin another Super Bowl ring. Go with the safe pick and take the Steelers to win this very crucial game.

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What Bettors Need To Know: Poinsettia Bowl

Navy vs. San Diego State (-3.5, 60.5)

The Skinny: Navy is bowling once again and coming off a victory over Army in its annual armed forces grudge match.

The Midshipmen (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) are in a bowl for the eighth straight season thanks to a strong finish to the season. Navy went 7-1 in its last eight games including a win over Notre Dame that was followed up by a surprising loss to Duke.

San Diego State (8-4 SU and ATS) is one of the better turnaround stories of the season under coach Brady Hoke and is making its first trip to the postseason since the Mountain West Conference formed in 1999. The Aztecs haven’t been bowling since 1998, when they were members of the Western Athletic Conference.

Navy’s Edge: The option. San Diego State will have some extra time to prepare, but is unlikely to be able to simulate the triple-option attack that Navy will unleash come game time.

Navy is ranked fifth in the country in rushing at 288.9 yards per game and if it can get that run game going, the Midshipmen will be able to control the tempo and keep the Aztec offense off the field.

San Diego State’s Edge: The offensive line for the Aztecs should be able to assert itself and keep QB Ryan Lindley on his feet.

San Diego State has allowed Lindley to be sacked just nine times this season while the Navy defense has recorded just nine sacks all season.

The Quarterbacks: Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs doesn’t throw often but has been effective when he does air it out. Dobbs has thrown for 1,380 yards and 12 touchdowns with five interceptions. Dobbs’ main job is not to throw the ball, but to run Navy’s option. He has rushed for a team-leading 860 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley has thrown for 3,554 yards with 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.

NFL Prospects: Navy — OT Jeff Battipaglia, CB Kevin Edwards, WR Greg Jones. San Diego State — K Bryan Shields, CB Jose Perez, WR DeMarco Sampson, WR Vincent Brown.

Bowl History: The Aztecs are 4-4 all-time in bowl games, but have not won a bowl game since the 1969 Pasadena Bowl. Their last appearance came in 1998, a 20-13 loss to North Carolina in the Las Vegas Bowl. San Diego State has played at home once before, in the 1986 Holiday Bowl against Iowa. The Aztecs lost on a touchdown pass on the last play a wild 39-38 shootout.

The Poinsettia Bowl marks Navy’s 17th bowl appearance, including a school-record eighth straight. Prior to Navy’s current eight-game run of bowl appearances, the Midshipmen played in back-to-back bowl games just once in school history (1980-81). Navy is 7-8-1 in bowl games, dropping the its last three bowls by a combined 14 points.

Etc.: A victory over San Diego State would give Navy 10 wins for the second-consecutive year. It would be the first time in school history that Navy has won 10 games in back-to-back years.

Betting Trends: Navy is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with winning records and 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. The Midshipmen are also 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
San Diego State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games but 0-4 ATS in its last four games following an ATS win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Best Bowl Bet

Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5, 60.5)

San Diego State will finally be playing a bowl game when they play against the Navy Midshipmen on Thursday night in the Poinsettia Bowl. When the Aztecs suit up to play at Qualcomm Stadium it will be the first time that the team has been to a bowl game since 1998.

The Aztecs finished 8-4 on the season and have had a remarkable season with some big victories. The resurgence is a good thing for this proud football program but in preparing for the big game, they aren’t talking about it.

San Diego State football coach Brady Hoke rarely let’s his players speak with the media and that is the same for the Poinsettia Bowl. Hoke will not let his players speak after practice and only a few will be available for the media day. Hoke hopes that this will allow his players to focus on the opposition and prepare them for the challenges that Navy has to offer. One of the biggest weapons they will have to be concerned with is Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs. The record setting senior will play his final game as part of the Midshipmen and is being considered as one of the best to play under center.

His Records are endless starting with his 27 rushing touchdowns last year, the most by a quarterback in a single season in NCAA history and a record he achieved while playing six games with a cracked kneecap, displaying his toughness. There's his 40 rushing touchdowns over two seasons, also an NCAA record. His 48 total touchdowns are the most in Navy history, as are his 290 points. His records are so lofty and distinguished that he is being compared to the legendary Roger Staubach.

The Aztecs will have to play physical football if they hope to stop Dobbs and a rushing attack that was among one of the best in the country.

The Aztecs ended the season with a big win and in the past that has been tough to recover from. The Aztecs are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games following a win of more than 20 points and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Midshipmen are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in December and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Navy is too tough and physical for the Aztecs and the wrong team is favored in this game.

BTB's Pick: Navy Midshipmen +5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Thursday's Best NBA Bet

Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings (1, 185.5)

The Bucks caught the Lakers in a big letdown spot and took full advantage of it.

With Milwaukee sending out just nine healthy players and the Lakers rolling along on a five-game win streak, the Bucks hit better than 50 percent of their shots from the floor for only the third time this year to drill L.A. 98-79.

The 5-foot-5 Earl Boykins canned four treys and finished with 22 points and John Salmons added 20 for the Bucks, who snapped a three-game slide.

"They usually always make a run in the fourth quarter," Boykins eloquently told the press. "We were just trying to stay in front for as long as possible. If you play with effort and belief, you can do anything."

That’s some advice the Kings could use. Sacto has dropped 14 of its last 15 straight up and five of the last six against the spread after they ran out of gas in overtime, losing 117-109 to Golden State as a 3-point favorite.

We’ll side with the Bucks here, but this is going to be ugly. Tune in to the TNT doubleheader and keep your eye on the ticker for this matchup.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Best NCAAB Bets

No. 9 Georgetown Hoyas at No. 17 Memphis Tigers +4.5, 146.5)

Georgetown coach John Thompson III doesn’t like this time of year when his players are juggling exams and hoops while the holiday season looms. There are a lot of distractions to be worried about.

"School is tough," Chris Wright told reporters after Georgetown dropped Loyola of Maryland 99-75 on Saturday. "As you can see, I don't have no haircut. I've been in the books. It's tough, but it's part of what we've got to do and we have to do it."

The Hoyas did a good job of putting the Greyhounds out of their misery early in that one, jumping out to a 15-point lead after only 10 minutes and a 23-point advantage at the half. They cruised from there and have focused in on the Tigers since then to close out the schedule before the holiday break.

The Tigers aren’t the kind of team that’s going to wilt early like that, but they have had some problems early this year. They’re still getting their wins, though their 2-6 number against the spread has bettors frustrated.

Look for Georgetown to build on that frustration here.

Pick: Georgetown Hoyas


Oakland Golden Grizzlies at No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (N/A)

The Golden Grizzlies have created quite the name for themselves among bettors with a terrific 9-5 mark against the spread heading into Thursday’s game against the Buckeyes.

Oakland had a great stretch this month when they upset Tennessee outright and covered in four straight, once at Illinois and another at Michigan State. Then the wheels fell off. The Grizzlies have now dropped their last three against the number and will be in tough here even though they’ll have a ton of points to work with.

However, even though Ohio State is undefeated the club has had a tough time covering big numbers. The Buckeyes did cover as 18-point favorites against Southern Carolina, but couldn’t cover when favored by more than 19 points in four games before that.

This time, the Buckeyes will be ready. They know what Oakland is capable of and will come out quick.

Pick: Ohio Buckeyes

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ICE PICKS

Thursday’s Best NHL Bets

Montreal Canadiens at Carolina Hurricanes (N/A)

Carolina’s four-game win streak was snapped on Monday at the hands of Tampa Bay. The Lightning lit the lamp five times against Hurricanes backup goalie Justin Peters. No. 1 Cam Ward, who had started Carolina’s last 10 games, missed Monday’s game because of an infection over his eye.

‘Canes GM Jim Rutherford told the Raleigh News & Observer that Ward would see a dermatologist on Tuesday and said he thought Ward would be fine in a day or two.

There’s a huge drop off between Ward and Peters in goal for Carolina. Ward is one of the league’s best netminders while Peters’ stats suggest he might be the worst backup in the NHL.

“We’re keeping our fingers crossed that [Ward] can play Thursday,” Hurricanes coach Paul Maurice told reporters.

Pick: Over


Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-140, 6)

The Caps seem to be back on track after losing eight straight to start December. Washington is 2-0 this week, outscoring its opponents 8-3 in the process.

“I think winning rejuvenates guys, too” Capitals coach Bruce Boudreau told the Washington Examiner after Tuesday’s 5-1 over New Jersey. “It’s been a much happier locker room the last couple of games so that’s good.”

Washington better be feeling confident because it hosts rival Pittsburgh on Thursday in a warm-up for the Heritage Classic. The Pens have won 15 of their last 18 games and Evgeni Malkin is just beginning to heat up.

The talented forward has eight points in his last three games, including two goals and three assists in the win over Phoenix this week. His resurgence is a welcome sight for Pittsburgh backers.

“The game was going to a different level for [Malkin],” coach Dan Bylsma told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette following his five-point outing. “To have Sidney Crosby shake his head a little bit and say, ‘Wow’ is a unique thing.”

The dynamic duo of Crosby and Malkin will be too much for Washington’s soft defense on Thursday.

Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors' Best Friend (BBF): Thursday's Wagering Tips

Who's Hot

Pittsburgh Steelers opened as 13-point favorites against Carolina but now sit as 15-point favorites at home.

San Diego State was set as a 6-point favorite at the open against Navy. The Aztecs now check in around -3 or -3.5.

Weather To Watch

Panters-Steelers: 30 percent chance of flurries at Heinz Field with 11 mph winds were expected as of Wednesday night.

Who’s Hot

NBA: San Antonio Spurs have covered in seven of their last 10 road games.

NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins have won seven of their last eight road games.

NHL: Tampa Bay Lighting have won four straight.

NHL: Dallas Stars have won four of five.

Who’s Not

NBA: Orlando Magic have dropped eight of their last nine against the spread.

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks have covered in only five or their last 18.

NBA: Sacramento Kings are 7-19 ATS in their last 26.

NBA: Miami Heat have dropped three of their last four against the number.

Key Stat

115 – number of rushing yards Jonathan Stewart has averaged over the last four games. With Mike Goodson also stepping up when DeAngello Williams and Stewart were out, Carolina now ranks 12th on rushing offense after a terrible start. The Panthers face Pittsburgh’s run defense that allows only 63.4 yards per game on the ground.

Injury That Shouldn’t Be Overlooked

Troy Polamalu (Achilles), Pittsburgh Steelers – Pittsburgh’s dynamic safety has been officially ruled out for Thursday’s game against the Carolina Panthers and the latest is Polamalu may not play again until the playoffs.

Game Of The Day

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-15, 37)

Notable Quotable

“He has a greater appreciation of the game. You can see the smile on his face, the enjoyment. You can see the disappointment on his face when we don't get things going. When you get something taken away from you, especially something outside of football, you get a greater appreciation for the game and right now he's all about the game.” Steelers wideout Hines Ward on Ben Roethlisberger fantastic year following his suspension.

Tips And Notes

Mike Miller participated in the Miami Heat’s entire practice on Wednesday, but the club is going to continue to monitor his minutes for the next while. Miller says his hand feels fine, now it’s just a matter of getting him back into game shape.

San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley has fired 14 touchdown passes of 32 yards or more while completing 58 passes of 20 or more yards this season. Think the Aztecs will be looking deep early to build a lead against Navy’s triple-option? Oh yes they will.

New York Rangers sniper Marian Gaborik won’t play Thursday against the hot Tampa Bay Lightning as he nurses a sore groin. Coach John Tortorella doesn’t think the injury is serious. Gaborik has nine goals and 10 assists in 22 games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

NFL* Pittsburgh Steelers -15
CFB* Navy Midshipmen +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 280-124 (.693)
ATS: 211-204 (.508)
ATS Vary Units: 602-587 (.506)
Over/Under: 203-221 (.479)
Over/Under Vary Units: 264-268 (.496)

San Antonio vs. ORLANDO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Milwaukee 97, SACRAMENTO 91
PHOENIX 104, Miami 102

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL

Season: 162-111 (.593)

BOSTON 3, Atlanta 2
BUFFALO 3, Florida 2
NEW JERSEY 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
Tampa Bay vs. N.Y. RANGERS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Pittsburgh vs. WASHINGTON: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
CAROLINA 3, Montreal 2
Vancouver vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Detroit vs. ST. LOUIS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
NASHVILLE 3, Ottawa 2
DALLAS 3, Calgary 2
Minnesota vs. COLORADO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
LOS ANGELES 4, Edmonton 2
SAN JOSE 3, Phoenix 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports
573- 414 run 58 %

Thurs Free Pick St Mary's - Ca -10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Boise State (-17) Wednesday night.

Thursday it's Navy. The profit is 160 sirignanos.

 

[KevinBets]

JustinCover


30unit**Carolina Panthers+15 Merry Christmas T $_______

30unit**Sacramento kings***Easy Money*** T$_________

5unit parlay

Carolina panthers
Orlando Magic
Sacramento Kings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DR BOB

San Diego St. (-4.5) 32 Navy 29 (at Poinsettia Bowl)
05:00 PM Pacific, 23-Dec-10
San Diego State is playing this game in their home stadium but their home field advantage is not likely to be as strong as normal since Navy should have plenty of backers in a military rich community with two military bases and a lot of retired Navy veterans in the area. Navy is 2-0 AST in the Poinsettia Bowl, winning by 21 points as a 2 ½ point favorite over Colorado State in 2005 and losing by just 3 points as an 8 point dog to a good Utah team in 2007. Home field advantage is really half home team advantage and half road team disadvantage, so I’ll give San Diego State their part of the home field advantage while not applying Navy’s road disadvantage. Navy doesn’t usually have a road disadvantage anyway, as the Midshipmen are 63% ATS away from home the last 30 years, including 5-2 ATS this season and 87-42-1 ATS since 1991 and 7-3 ATS in bowl games. Military teams in general tend to play well in bowl games, as Army, Navy, and Air Force are a combined 23-9 ATS in bowl games since 1976, including 17-3 ATS if facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or higher. Perhaps military teams use their extreme discipline to remain focused during the weeks leading up to a bowl game while the focus of non-military teams may wander at times. Whatever the reason, it’s certainly not a trend I’m willing to buck if the line is fair.

Navy is probably going to have to score a good number of points to stay close in this game since their sub-par pass defense (6.2 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team). This game will be the first all season that Navy has had to face a good quarterback, as San Diego State’s Ryan Lindley actually ranked at 15th in the nation in compensated yards per pass play, averaging 8.3 yppp against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average quarterback. Navy did face 3 average passing teams and the Middies gave up 7.1 yppp in those 3 games to Duke, Notre Dame, and East Carolina – teams that would combine to average just 6.1 yppp against an average defense. Lindley will likely put up big passing numbers and Aztecs’ back Ronnie Hillman (1304 yards at 5.6 ypr) should run well against a below average Navy defensive front that allowed 5.1 yards per rushing play this season. My math model projects 479 yards at 6.9 yards per play for San Diego State in this game, which should lead to between 30 and 40 points.

Navy’s offense was very good this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play in quarterback Ricky Dobbs’ 10 starts against Division 1A opposition that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Navy’s option should move the ball at about their normal level against a good but not great San Diego State defense that gave up 4.5 yards per rushing play and 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yprp and 5.2 yppl against an average defense. The Aztecs did a decent job defending the Air Force triple-option attack earlier in the season, limiting the Falcons to 5.3 yppl and 25 points (Air Force would average 5.7 yppl and 26.7 points on the road against an average defense) and my math model projects 417 yards at 6.0 yppl for Navy in this game, which is a little less than the Middies’ normal offensive output.

My math model favors San Diego State by 5 points overall giving them half of the normal home field advantage, so the line is pretty fair in this game. Navy has scored 28 points or more in their last 8 games, including against a solid SMU defense and a good Notre Dame defense so the Midshipmen should be able to match points with a San Diego State attack that will surely be able to move the ball. With the line being fair, I will lean with Navy at +3 ½ points or more based on the success of military teams in bowl games and the good ATS mark of the Midshipmen away from home. My math model projects 63 total points but Navy’s games were about 3 ½ points lower scoring than their stats would project so a line of 60 points is reasonable. Thus, I have no opinion on the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Crusher
Play of the Day:

Washington -140 over Pittsburgh