NFL Opening Line Report
Oddsmakers padding postseason pushes
This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.
There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.
“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”
There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications, including a AFC West war between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Offshore books opened this line as low as Denver -10.5, but Korner says the Broncos need a win as much as any team right now. His oddsmakers sent out a suggested line of Denver -13, knowing the Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason – a key component to their Super Bowl plans.
“Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning but the Broncos poured it on against the Titans,” says Korner. “We sent out Denver -13 and saw that there were some 10’s out there – I don’t understand that line. There’s no need to be low on the highest-scoring team in the NFL. It’s going to be cold in Denver and San Diego isn’t going to like that. I don’t think we’re overpricing the Broncos. It’s just a better line.”
Oddsmakers padding postseason pushes
This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.
There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.
“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”
There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications, including a AFC West war between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Offshore books opened this line as low as Denver -10.5, but Korner says the Broncos need a win as much as any team right now. His oddsmakers sent out a suggested line of Denver -13, knowing the Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason – a key component to their Super Bowl plans.
“Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning but the Broncos poured it on against the Titans,” says Korner. “We sent out Denver -13 and saw that there were some 10’s out there – I don’t understand that line. There’s no need to be low on the highest-scoring team in the NFL. It’s going to be cold in Denver and San Diego isn’t going to like that. I don’t think we’re overpricing the Broncos. It’s just a better line.”
Today's NBA Picks
Houston at Portland
The Trail Blazers host a Houston team tonight that is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games in Portland. The Rockets are the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
Houston at Portland
The Trail Blazers host a Houston team tonight that is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games in Portland. The Rockets are the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 501-502: LA Clippers at Brooklyn (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 122.225; Brooklyn 112.391 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10; 192 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 2 1/2; 196 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-2 1/2); Under |
| Game 503-504: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 126.739; Portland 125.490 Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 1; 216 Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 211 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over |
Today's NHL Picks
Columbus at NY Rangers
The Rangers try to snap a four-game home losing streak tonight against a Columbus team that is coming off a 5-4 win over New Jersey and is 1-7 in its last 8 games coming off a victory. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
Columbus at NY Rangers
The Rangers try to snap a four-game home losing streak tonight against a Columbus team that is coming off a 5-4 win over New Jersey and is 1-7 in its last 8 games coming off a victory. New York is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145). Here are all of today's picks.
| THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 1-2: Montreal at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.069; Philadelphia 12.015 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+115); Over |
| Game 3-4: Columbus at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.994; NY Rangers 12.322 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); Under |
| Game 5-6: Detroit at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.001; Tampa Bay 10.812 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over |
| Game 7-8: Buffalo at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 9.908; Ottawa 11.605 Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-200); Under |
| Game 9-10: Toronto at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.804; St. Louis 12.473 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-240); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240); Under |
| Game 11-12: Colorado at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.967; Winnipeg 12.083 Dunkel Line & Total: Winnipeg by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+100); Over |
| Game 13-14: Dallas at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.149; Nashville 12.544 Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-110); Under |
| Game 15-16: Carolina at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 12.027; Calgary 11.068 Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-110); Over |
| Game 17-18: NY Islanders at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.216; Phoenix 10.322 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A |
| Game 19-20: Boston at Edmonton (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.267; Edmonton 10.529 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-150); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under |
| Game 21-22: Minnesota at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.735; San Jose 12.677 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-200); Under |
NCAA Basketball Picks
Maryland at Boston College
The Terps look to bounce back from their 77-75 loss to George Washington on Sunday and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat. Maryland is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terps favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
Maryland at Boston College
The Terps look to bounce back from their 77-75 loss to George Washington on Sunday and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat. Maryland is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terps favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.
| THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST |
| Game 505-506: Maryland at Boston College (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 65.678; Boston College 59.121 Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Maryland by 2 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-2 1/2) |
| Game 507-508: Florida Atlantic at DePaul (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 46.818; DePaul 60.233 Dunkel Line: DePaul by 13 1/2 Vegas Line: DePaul by 11 Dunkel Pick: DePaul (-11) |
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 15
Thursday, December 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) at DENVER (11 - 2) - 12/12/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Week 15
Thursday, December 12
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) at DENVER (11 - 2) - 12/12/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 15
Trend Report
Thursday, December 12
8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 1-5-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego
Week 15
Trend Report
Thursday, December 12
8:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 14 games
Denver is 1-5-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego
StatFox Super Situations
BOSTON at EDMONTON
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (BOSTON) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 4 goals or more 97-64 since 1997. ( 60.2% | 69.0 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.4 units )
CAROLINA at CALGARY
Play On - Any team against the money line (CAROLINA) extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) in the first half of the season 38-11 since 1997. ( 77.6% | 28.3 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.3 units )
BOSTON at EDMONTON
Play Against - A favorite against the money line (BOSTON) after allowing 2 goals or less in 5 straight games against opponent after a game where both teams scored 4 goals or more 35-20 since 1997. ( 63.6% | 33.4 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
BOSTON at EDMONTON
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (BOSTON) after allowing 2 goals or less in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 4 goals or more 97-64 since 1997. ( 60.2% | 69.0 units ) 3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.4 units )
CAROLINA at CALGARY
Play On - Any team against the money line (CAROLINA) extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) in the first half of the season 38-11 since 1997. ( 77.6% | 28.3 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.3 units )
BOSTON at EDMONTON
Play Against - A favorite against the money line (BOSTON) after allowing 2 goals or less in 5 straight games against opponent after a game where both teams scored 4 goals or more 35-20 since 1997. ( 63.6% | 33.4 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )
StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets
NBA HOUSTON at PORTLAND
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.3 units )
NBA LA CLIPPERS at BROOKLYN
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) off 2 or more consecutive road wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
60-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.2% 32.1 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -3.6 units )
NBA HOUSTON at PORTLAND
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HOUSTON) good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )
NBA HOUSTON at PORTLAND
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after going over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
59-26 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.3 units )
NBA LA CLIPPERS at BROOKLYN
Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (LA CLIPPERS) off 2 or more consecutive road wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
60-35 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.2% 32.1 units )
0-2 this year. ( 0.0% -3.6 units )
NBA HOUSTON at PORTLAND
Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HOUSTON) good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%), poor ball handling team (>=16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's)
39-14 since 1997. ( 73.6% 23.6 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )
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