dr bob
PITTSBURGH (-11.0) 21 Cincinnati 7
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Nov-20 - Stats Matchup
Cincinnati has the worst offense in the NFL with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and the Bengals have averaged a pathetic 3.9 yards per play this season, including just 3.1 yppl in a 10-38 home loss to the Steelers in week 7. The Steelers have the best defense in the NFL, allowing just 3.9 yppl and my math model projects just 132 total yards at 2.3 yppl for Cincinnati in this game. Pittsburgh’s offense is sub-par (just 4.9 yppl) and the Bengals have a better than average defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so I don’t expect the Steelers to come close to the 38 points they scored the first time these teams met. I do think Pittsburgh will score enough to cover the spread and I also lean with the under, as it will probably take a defensive or special teams touchdown for this game to go over the 34 ½ point total.
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