STATSYSTEMS REPORT 10/28 cont.
*** WIZARDS' ARENAS WILL MISS AT LEAST FIRST 2 GAMES ***
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The Orlando Magic have won three consecutive Southeast Division titles and haven’t done much tinkering to perhaps the NBA’s deepest roster, yet they’re seen by many as a long shot to make it four in a row. The formation of a new Big Three in South Beach hasn’t dampened expectations in Orlando, where the championship-hungry Magic open their season - and the new Amway Center - on Thursday night against No. 1 pick John Wall and the revamped Washington Wizards.
Orlando (59-23) posted the same record the past two seasons, but couldn’t follow its trip to the 2009 NBA finals - where it lost to the Los Angeles Lakers in five games - with a similar run. The Magic swept Charlotte and Atlanta in the first two rounds, then fell in six games to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals.
General manager Otis Smith was busy after the Magic lost to the Lakers, jettisoning Hedo Turkoglu and bringing in Vince Carter, but he didn’t have nearly as eventful an offseason in 2010. Small forward Matt Barnes and reserve point guard Anthony Johnson were replaced by Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon, but the roster remained mostly intact. Few expect that to be enough to win a fourth straight Southeast crown. Miami appears to be the favorite in the division after teaming LeBron James and Chris Bosh with Dwyane Wade.
The early story in Orlando is the opening of the Amway Center, which is about three times the size of Amway Arena - one of the NBA’s most out-of-date venues that opened when the Magic began play in 1989. While the arena may be Orlando’s biggest offseason addition, there’s no question what the biggest move was for the Wizards (26-56). Washington won the draft lottery and the right to pick Wall, the speedy point guard who was the SEC player of the year in his only season at Kentucky. Wall averaged 15.7 points, 7.9 assists and 2.1 steals in seven preseason games.
How Wall and Gilbert Arenas co-exist may ultimately determine if the Wizards can end their two-year postseason drought. That may take some time considering Arenas hasn’t played in a regular-season game since Jan. 5 - one day before he was suspended for a felony gun conviction. Arenas won’t play in at least the first two games because of a strained ankle tendon that limited him in the preseason.
“Unfortunately, we won’t have Gilbert,” said guard Kirk Hinrich, who was acquired from Chicago and will likely replace Arenas in the starting lineup. “But we can’t control it. We have to go out there and try to execute our game plan and we’ll see what happens.” That legitimate injury came on the heels of one Arenas faked. Coach Flip Saunders initially announced the guard would miss a preseason game against Atlanta because of a sore left knee, but Arenas revealed after the game he made it up so that Nick Young could start.
Al Thornton will likely start at small forward as Josh Howard continues to recover from a knee injury, but the other key to immediate success - aside from Wall’s development - may be the growth of the starting frontcourt. Power forward Andray Blatche averaged 22.1 points in 32 post-All-Star break starts for depleted Washington, but he’ll no longer be averaging nearly 20 shots. Behind Blatche will be Yi Jianlian, a former top 10 pick who didn’t pan out with Milwaukee or New Jersey. The Wizards would also like to see improvement from center JaVale McGee, who will have his hands full against Howard. McGee averaged 6.4 points in his second season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 14; O/U 195
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -16
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Orlando -13.78
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 103.2, OPPONENT 93.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.9, OPPONENT 89.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 67-93 ATS (-35.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.2, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.6, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 89, OPPONENT 99.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ORLANDO is 56-38 UNDER (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.9, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 58-41 UNDER (+12.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 102.6, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 58-39 UNDER (+15.1 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 102.4, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 51-29 UNDER (+19.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.2, OPPONENT 101 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 28-12 UNDER (+14.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 94.4, OPPONENT 101.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 42-20 UNDER (+20 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 95.2, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 46-29 UNDER (+14.1 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.6, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 25-12 UNDER (+11.8 Units) as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 95.1, OPPONENT 102.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 15-5 UNDER (+9.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.3, OPPONENT 99 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 103-177 (-69 Units) against the money line vs. division opponents since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 94.6, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--WASHINGTON is 44-108 (-42.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.2, OPPONENT 102.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 28-47 (-23.7 Units) against the 1rst half line when the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 44.9, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 73-88 (-23.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 47.3, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 54-27 UNDER (+24.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 45.5, OPPONENT 50.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 50-26 UNDER (+21.4 Units) the 1rst half total when the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 44.9, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 42.9, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS - ATS
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--Stan Van Gundy is 171-116 ATS (+43.4 Units) in all games as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 101.8, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--Stan Van Gundy is 128-90 ATS (+29 Units) as a favorite as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 102.7, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Stan Van Gundy is 37-18 ATS (+17.2 Units) vs. division opponents as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 101.4, OPPONENT 91 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS - OVER/UNDER
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--Stan Van Gundy is 130-90 UNDER (+31 Units) as a favorite as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 102.7, OPPONENT 94.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--Stan Van Gundy is 165-124 UNDER (+28.6 Units) in all games as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 101.8, OPPONENT 95.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Stan Van Gundy is 81-57 UNDER (+18.3 Units) as a home favorite as the coach of ORLANDO.
The average score was Van Gundy 103.2, OPPONENT 93.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--Flip Saunders is 42-20 UNDER (+20 Units) as an underdog as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was Saunders 95.2, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--Flip Saunders is 51-29 UNDER (+19.1 Units) in all games as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was Saunders 96.2, OPPONENT 101 - (Rating = 3*)
--Flip Saunders is 28-12 UNDER (+14.8 Units) in road games as the coach of WASHINGTON.
The average score was Saunders 94.4, OPPONENT 101.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (ORLANDO) - good team from last season (60% to 75%) playing a team who had a losing record last year.
(38-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.9, Opponent 44.8 (Total first half points scored = 93.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (66-44).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (WASHINGTON) - poor defensive team from last season - shooting pct defense of >=45.5%, vs. division opponents.
(58-24 since 1996.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 44.9, Opponent 48 (Total first half points scored = 92.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-8).
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*** SUNS AND JAZZ LOOK TO SHAKE OFF ROUGH START ***
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Past matchups between the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns featured interior battles between power forwards Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudemire. Boozer and Stoudemire are both gone, and neither team’s offense looks the same after one game. These teams have been known for their high-scoring offenses, and will try to shake off rough first games as the Jazz play their home opener Thursday night against the Suns.
Utah fell 110-88 at Denver on Wednesday after Phoenix let a late lead slip away in Tuesday’s 106-92 loss at Portland. Those point totals were a far cry from what these clubs did in 2009-10, when the Suns led the league with 110.2 points per game and the Jazz were fourth at 104.2. There were mitigating factors involved for both teams, including the fact that each opened on the road against a revenge-minded opponent it eliminated in last season’s playoffs.
More notable is how each team is adjusting without its leading scorer from last season. Boozer averaged 19.5 points before joining Chicago as a free agent. The Jazz acquired Al Jefferson from Minnesota to help replace him, but the center had six points and seven rebounds while being double-teamed frequently in his Utah debut Wednesday. “Made it more difficult for him to get what he wanted,” Coach Jerry Sloan said.
The Suns looked fine for three quarters without Stoudemire’s 23.1 points per game Tuesday before they were outscored 31-11 in the fourth. The starting frontcourt of newcomer Hedo Turkoglu, Grant Hill and Robin Lopez combined for 15 points. “We ran out of gas a little bit offensively,” guard Steve Nash said.
A key question for both teams is how the departure of the scoring big men would impact the play of point guards Nash and Deron Williams. Nash played with Stoudemire for six seasons and Williams with Boozer for five. Nash developed into a two-time league MVP in that time, and led the Suns with 26 points Tuesday. However, he had six assists and nine turnovers - his highest total since he had 10 on Feb. 6, 2008, against New Orleans.
Williams made 3 of 10 shots for 17 points and six assists as part of a lethargic effort in which Utah shot 38.6 percent. Sloan cut his minutes in the second half when the Jazz never made a run after trailing by 20 at the break. “Our cuts to the basket looked like we were dead tired,” Sloan said. “Let’s give credit to Denver, but the season’s not over.”
These teams split four meetings in 2009-10, but both know there is work to do to get back to their level of play from last season. “We still have some mistakes we have to take care of, but the most important thing is we have a game right around the corner that we have to get ready for,” Suns guard Jason Richardson said.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Utah by 2; O/U 211
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Phoenix -0.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Phoenix -0.64
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--UTAH is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 106.9, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 112.8, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 107.7, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--UTAH is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 107.4, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--UTAH is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 104.4, OPPONENT 100.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--UTAH is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 107, OPPONENT 100 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHOENIX is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 111.9, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 58-39 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.5, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UTAH is 33-17 OVER (+14.3 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 105.6, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 24-10 OVER (+13 Units) in home games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 100.8, OPPONENT 93.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 19-7 OVER (+11.3 Units) off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 107, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
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--UTAH is 199-76 (+50.9 Units) against the money line in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 99.9, OPPONENT 92.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 91-24 (+33.1 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 200 since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 108, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 13-26 (-31.6 Units) against the money line when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 102, OPPONENT 104.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--UTAH is 19-5 (+14.2 Units) against the money line off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 109.4, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--UTAH is 39-20 (+23.8 Units) against the money line off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 97.5, OPPONENT 93.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--UTAH is 45-23 (+27 Units) against the money line after a blowout loss by 20 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 97.9, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--UTAH is 68-42 (+24.1 Units) against the money line after a blowout loss by 15 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 96.7, OPPONENT 93.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 7-20 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 104.1, OPPONENT 109.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHOENIX is 23-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 110.2, OPPONENT 103.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 34-13 (+17.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 111.9, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHOENIX is 25-11 (+13.3 Units) against the money line after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 111, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UTAH is 731-464 UNDER (+220.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 47.4, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 7*)
--UTAH is 362-225 UNDER (+114.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 47.1, OPPONENT 46 - (Rating = 6*)
--UTAH is 362-228 UNDER (+111.2 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a road game since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 47.3, OPPONENT 46 - (Rating = 6*)
--UTAH is 275-166 UNDER (+92.4 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as an underdog since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.6, OPPONENT 46.4 - (Rating = 6*)
--UTAH is 240-140 UNDER (+86 Units) the 1rst half total against Pacific division opponents since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 47.5, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 6*)
--UTAH is 174-92 UNDER (+72.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.2, OPPONENT 46.1 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 201-121 UNDER (+67.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a road loss since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 47, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 141-76 UNDER (+57.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.6, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 115-59 UNDER (+50.1 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where their opponent was called for 30 or more fouls since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.8, OPPONENT 45 - (Rating = 5*)
--UTAH is 105-57 UNDER (+42.3 Units) the 1rst half total off a road loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was UTAH 46.9, OPPONENT 45.6 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS - ATS
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--Jerry Sloan is 93-65 ATS (+21.5 Units) in home games after a division game as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 100.1, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jerry Sloan is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 98.6, OPPONENT 89.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jerry Sloan is 163-133 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 99.9, OPPONENT 92.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--Alvin Gentry is 49-22 ATS (+24.8 Units) after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of PHOENIX.
The average score was Gentry 113.5, OPPONENT 106 - (Rating = 3*)
--Alvin Gentry is 76-52 ATS (+18.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 as the coach of PHOENIX.
The average score was Gentry 111.5, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Alvin Gentry is 76-52 ATS (+18.8 Units) in all games as the coach of PHOENIX.
The average score was Gentry 111.5, OPPONENT 107.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--Alvin Gentry is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) after playing a road game as the coach of PHOENIX.
The average score was Gentry 110.7, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--Alvin Gentry is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread as the coach of PHOENIX.
The average score was Gentry 112.2, OPPONENT 105.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED COACHING TRENDS - OVER/UNDER
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--Jerry Sloan is 70-48 UNDER (+17.2 Units) off a loss against a division rival as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 95.7, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--Jerry Sloan is 157-129 UNDER (+15.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 99, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--Jerry Sloan is 49-32 UNDER (+13.8 Units) off a road loss against a division rival as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 96.1, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--Jerry Sloan is 161-134 UNDER (+13.6 Units) in home games after playing a road game as the coach of UTAH.
The average score was Sloan 98.5, OPPONENT 92 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(26-6 since 1996.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207
The average score in these games was: Team 107.7, Opponent 104.9 (Total points scored = 212.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (46.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(56-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.1%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.6
The average score in these games was: Team 104.6, Opponent 104.4 (Total points scored = 209)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 39 (45.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-22).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-51).