VegasButcher
Teaser (6.5 pts): Denver Broncos -2.5 / Miami Dolphins +0.5
Denver opened this one at -7.5 and the line shot up to -9.5, settling at -9 today. What’s the reason for that? Well, San Diego will be without both of their starting corner-backs as both Flowers and Verrett are out. On a short week, that is a lot tougher to replace. No wonder the line shot up on this news. Last year, San Diego won @ Denver 27-20, on a Thursday Night game. But it’s fair to expect today’s game to be different. Last season Denver was without Welker (concussion) and they didn’t have an adequate replacement for him in the slot. This year, they’ll have Welker and Sanders, two quick players who will cause a lot of trouble for the Chargers. In addition, last year San Diego grinded out 44 carries for 177 rushing yards, feeding Mathews 29 times. They controlled the ball for 39 minutes and kept Denver’s offense off the field. This year, they’ll have a tiny Branden Oliver (5’7 and 208 lbs) as their primary runner. After carrying the load in 3 straight games and now playing on short week on the road, I wonder how he’ll hold up. Chargers can’t afford to be in a shoot-out with Denver but I’m not so sure they’ll be able to grind out yards on the ground either. Besides, Denver has the 4th ranked run D, their D-line ranks 4th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) allowed, they rank 5th in Stuff%, and 1st in both 2nd level yards and Open Field yards. Those are some tremendous numbers. Basically even if Oliver breaks through the D-line, he’ll have a tough time gaining yards after the fact as Denver’s D is very stout against the run at every level. The game will fall on Rivers, and though he’s a stud, he won’t be facing the same Denver D that ranked 21st in passD last season. This year, Denver ranks 3rd in PassD and their pass-rush ranks 6th with an Adjusted Sack Rate of 8.0%. I like how Denver practices on Monday in preparation for this game as typically teams give their players that day off on a short week. That tells me that they’re taking this one seriously. I expect them to win and will tease down through the key numbers of 7, 6, 4, and 3.
As far as Miami is concerned, I’m fading a bad Jags team that is coming of their first win of the year. Jags lost Posluzny, their top linebacker last week to a season-ender and now will also be without Alan Ball, their starting CB. Jags ran the ball all over Cleveland’s bottom-5 ranked D last week but in week 8 they’ll face Miami’s 3rd ranked D, 5th against the pass and 9th against the run. Miami destroyed Oakland in London, should have beaten a good Packers team at home a few weeks ago, and then went to Chicago and totally dominated the Bears. This team is playing really well right now and I like their chances of ending Jacksonville’s winning streak on Sunday
