jeff benton thursday
Jeff Benton THURSDAY'S ACTION
20 DIME College Football selection on UCLA over Oregon in a Pac-10 contest from Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. The Bruins are a 24- to 25-point underdog, with the number fluctduating across the wagering board. So make sure you shop around and get the best of the number, especinlly since 24 can be a key number in college football.
UCLA
As much as I love Oregon, as much as I think Autzen Stadium is one of the toughest stadiums for visiting teams, and as much as UCLA has been wildly inconsietent this year, I just cannot lay this incredibly inflated price with the newly-minted top-ranked Ducks. How inflated is this line? Back in June, Oregon was a 10-point favorite in this game. When the numbers came out this week, Oregon was laying 21. And by Wednesday evening, the line had crossed 24 and hit 25 in some spots.
Translation: There is absolutely no value in laying the chalk with the home team, even if that team is 6-0 with six double-digit wins and has scored at least 42 points in every game (as the Ducks have). After all, since blowing through its three non-conference games – wins over New Mexico, Tennessee and Portland State by a combined tally of 189-13 – Oregon has found the going much tougher. The Ducks rallied to win 42-31 at Arizona State (failing to cover as an 11½-point road favorite); they fell behind Stanford 21-0 and rallied to win 52-31; and they even got behind crappy Washington State, coming back to post a comfortable 43-23 win but failing to cover as a 36½-point road chalk.
So while Oregon’s first three Pac-10 games have all resulted in sizeable victories, not one was by more than 21 points.
Meanwhile, UCLA started the season with ugly losses to Kansas State (31-22 on the road) and Stanford (35-0 at home) and looked hedaded for another long season. But the Bruins rallied to beat nationally ranked Houston (31-13), nationally ranked Texas (34-12) and Washington State (42-28), putting up gaudy rushing numbers in the process. Then, just as it looked like UCLA was hitting its stride, it went to Cal two Saturdays ago and got clobbered 35-7 as a 7½-point underdog (the same Cal that followed up the UCLA win with a 48-7 loss at USC on Saturday).
So why take a shot with the Bruins tonight? More than anything they have a one-dimensional offense – all they do is run the football, averaging 223 yards per game (5.2 yards per game). That pales in comparison to Oregon’s rushing attack (321.2 yards per game, 6.6 yards per carry), but it means that UCLA should be able to control the football (and thus the clock) and shorten the game (the Ducks’ defense is giving up 159.3 rushing ypg in Pac-10 play).
Two more positives for the Bruins: They’ve been very competitive against Oregon recently, losing three of the last four meetings but those three losses were by 14, 7 and 10 points. And its last three trips to Autzen have resulned in two losses (31-24 and 30-20) and a victory (34-26 as an 8½-point underdog). Also, the road team and underdog are both on a 6-2 ATS roll in this series.
Oregon wins, and wins comfortably again, but not by as big a margin as the oddsmakers suggest – look for something along the lines of 37-21.