SPORTS ADVISORS
Florida State (4-1, 2-1 ATS) at N.C. State (2-4, 3-2 ATS)
Florida State, coming off a bye week following two straight victories, hits the road for an ACC meeting with North Carolina State in Raleigh, N.C.
The Seminoles edged Miami in a shootout 41-39 two weeks ago as a one-point road underdog, winning and cashing for the second straight game. FSU, which scored the game’s first 24 points, had its erratic quarterback play continue, as Christian Ponder went just 14 of 31 for 159 yards with one TD offset by two INTS – one returned for a score. The ‘Noles finished with four turnovers, but they also forced three INTs and outgained the ‘Canes 442-257, finishing with a whopping 283 yards rushing, while doubling Miami in time of possession.
The Wolfpack, also coming off a bye, suffered its second straight home loss two weeks ago, falling 38-31 to Boston College but narrowly getting the cash as a 7½-point home pup. QB Russell Wilson (19 of 33, 218 yards, 1 TD) had a fair effort, and N.C. State had no turnovers and forced one INT, but the Wolfpack were outgained by an eye-popping 578-253 margin, with B.C. quarterback Chris Crane completing 34 of 51 passes for 428 yards and two TDs.
N.C. State is on a 6-0-1 ATS run (4-3 SU) in this rivalry – all as an underdog – and has cashed in the last three battles (2-1 SU), including last year’s 27-10 road loss catching 18 points. The road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series.
The Seminoles are on an 8-16 ATS slide as a chalk (1-1 ATS this year) and are on additional pointspread skids of 1-4-1 in Thursday contests and 2-5 after a SU win. The Wolfpack, despite their sub-.500 SU mark, carry ATS streaks of 4-0 after a bye, 4-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 against winning teams and 6-2 in conference play.
The over is on a 5-1 run on the highway for FSU and is 9-2 in the Seminoles’ last 11 October contests, 5-1 in N.C. State’s past six at home and 3-1 in the last four series meetings. However, the under is 6-1 in the ‘Pack’s last seven Thursday contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.C. STATE
(9) BYU (6-0, 2-3 ATS) at TCU (6-1, 4-2 ATS)
Brigham Young takes its unbeaten record and BCS bowl hopes to Fort Worth, Texas, for a Mountain West Conference matchup with Texas Christian.
The Cougars are coming off a 21-3 home victory over New Mexico, though they failed to cover as a heavy 23-point chalk, losing the cash for the second straight week. BYU led just 7-3 at halftime before QB Max Hall (22 of 34, 258 yards, 3 TDs) finally got the offense rolling, and the Cougars ended up with a 380-288 total yardage edge.
The Horned Frogs barely got out of Colorado State with a 13-7 win, falling well short of covering as a 15½-point favorite. But the top-ranked TCU defense held the Rams to just 199 total yards – under the Frogs’ season average of 205.9 – giving up a minuscule 11 net rushing yards and picking off two passes.
TCU has gone 2-1 ATS in the last three meetings in this rivalry, though BYU has won the last two outright, including a 27-22 home victory last year laying seven points. The road team has cashed in four of the last five clashes, including the last three in a row.
Both teams are similar statistically, with BYU averaging 37.8 points and 450 total yards per game, with TCU netting 33.7 points and 398.7 yards per contest. However, the Cougars do most of their offensive damage in the air (320.3 passing ypg), while the Horned Frogs grind it out on the ground (228.7 rushing ypg). Defensively, BYU yields 10.2 points and 304.3 total ypg (117.8 rushing ypg), while the Frogs hold opponents to 11.4 ppg and lead the nation in rushing defense (19.1 ypg).
The Cougars are on ATS runs of 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 on Thursday, 4-1 in MWC play and 8-3 after a non-cover, but they are on a 3-6 ATS slide on the highway (0-2 this year). The Horned Frogs are on an 8-3 ATS spree overall and sport additional positive pointspread trends of 38-16 at home – including 14-4 since 2005 – 4-1 after a non-cover, 10-4-1 in conference play, and 15-7-1 after a SU win.
The over for BYU is 6-1 in its last seven Thursday games, but the under is 4-1 in its last five conference games, and the under for TCU is on runs of 5-2 overall, 8-1 at home and 4-1 against Mountain West foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TCU and UNDER
ALCS
Tampa Bay (6-2) at Boston (4-4)
The upstart Rays, whose first winning season in their 11-year history came this year, stand on the brink of the World Series when they send southpaw Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49 ERA) to the hill at Fenway Park against righty Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.90 ERA) and the Red Sox for Game 5 of the ALCS.
Tampa Bay followed up its 9-1 Game 3 thrashing of Boston with a 13-4 beatdown Tuesday night in Game 4 at Fenway to go up 3-1 in the best-of-7 series, teeing off on starter Tim Wakefield, one of five Red Sox hurlers sent to the mound. The Rays are now 12-9 against the defending World Series champions this year, including a sterling 10-3 in the last 13 clashes. And after losing their first six games at Fenway in 2008, they’ve won four of the last five.
Tampa Bay is on hot streaks of 7-2 overall, 9-1 against A.L. East foes, 4-1 on the road and 36-16 versus right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are still 23-10 in their last 32 postseason games and 12-5 in their last 17 home playoff games, and they sport additional positive streaks of 64-29 at Fenway and 17-6 following a defeat. But Boston is in a 2-5 rut against A.L. East foes.
Prior to its recent 4-1 run at Fenway, Tampa had lost 45 of its previous 54 games in Boston. Also, the home team won the first 12 meetings between these clubs this season, but the visitor is now 6-3 in the last nine.
Kazmir started Game 2 and got beat up, yielding five runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings Saturday, but the Rays pulled out a 9-8 victory to tie the series before coming to Boston and winning the next two games. Tampa Bay is 8-2 in Kazmir’s last 10 starts, with the 24-year-old posting a 5-2 mark with three no-decisions in that span.
Kazmir got a no-decision in his last outing at Fenway – a 5-4 Tampa victory Sept. 9 in which he allowed two runs on five hits in six innings. In his subsequent start Sept. 15, though, Boston lit up Kazmir for nine runs on nine hits in just three innings in Tampa Bay. The Rays are 3-2 this season against the Sox behind Kazmir, who has gone 0-2 with three no-decisions in those contests. Kazmir is 4-6 with a 4.10 ERA in 13 road starts this year, and for his career, he is 6-7 with a 3.62 ERA in 21 starts against Boston.
Matsuzaka was nearly flawless in winning Game 1, giving up no hits until the seventh inning. In that inning, he yielded four hits but still kept the Rays scoreless in finishing the inning before exiting the game. Matsuzaka is 8-1 with four no-decisions in his last 13 starts – 11 of which the Red Sox have won – allowing three runs or less in 12 of those contests. Also, he’s 1-0 with one no-decision and a 2.45 ERA in two playoff starts so far.
Boston is now 2-2 this season with Matsuzaka facing the Rays, but 0-1 at home. For his career, he is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in eight starts against Tampa Bay. Additionally, Matsuzaka is 9-3 with a 3.34 ERA in 16 home starts this year.
The over is on a 6-1 tear in Kazmir’s last seven starts and is on further runs of 5-0 with the lefty going on four days’ rest, 4-0 when he faces the A.L. East and 4-1 when he battles winning teams. On the flip side, with Matsuzaka throwing, the under is on runs of 11-5-1 overall, 5-1 at home and 10-3-1 on grass.
The “over” trends for Tampa Bay are plentiful, including 6-1 on the road against right-handers, 20-6 overall against righties, 7-3 on the road and 15-7 following a win. For Boston, the over is on a 6-0 spree in ALCS home games and is also 7-2-1 in its last 10 home playoff contests, but otherwise for the Red Sox, the under is on streaks of 4-0 on Thursday, 6-2-1 following an off day and 5-2-2 against left-handed starters.
Finally, the last three meetings in this series have soared past the total and the over is 5-0 in Kazmir’s last five starts against the Red Sox and 4-1 in Matsuzaka’s last five outings against the Rays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
