SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
(8) Cincinnati (5-0, 2-2 ATS) at (21) South Florida (5-0, 2-1 ATS)
The only two Big East teams ranked in the Top 25 square off in an important league showdown, as Cincinnati visits the Bulls at Raymond James Stadium.
The Bearcats, who are in the Top 10 for the first time in school history, have won four of their five games by double digits, including a 37-13 rout of Miami (Ohio) on Oct. 3. However, Cincinnati failed to cover as a hefty 29½-point road chalk in that contest after coming up short as a 17-point home favorite in a 28-20 home win over Fresno State the previous week. In the win over Fresno, the Bearcats actually got outgained 443-357 and possessed the ball for slightly more than 16 minutes.
After its stunning 17-7 upset at Florida State (14-point road underdog), South Florida managed to avoid the classic letdown with a 34-20 destruction of Syracuse as a 7½-point road chalk on Oct. 3. The Bulls finished on the short end of a 344-333 yardage discrepancy, but the defense forced seven turnovers, picking off Syracuse QB Greg Paulus five times.
Cincinnati has won three in a row and four of five against South Florida, going 5-0 ATS along the way. Last year, the Bearcats rolled 24-10 as a 1½-point home pup, and in their last trip to Tampa Bay, they forced eight turnovers and blocked a punt, but still barely escaped with a 38-33 victory as a five-point ‘dog. Since 2003, the home team is 5-1 SU 4-2 ATS in this rivalry.
Despite losing the yardage battle to Fresno State, Cincinnati is outgaining its opponents by an average of 152 yards per game (468-316), and South Florida has outgained its competition by 150 ypg (413-263). The Bearcats are putting up 42 points per outing and yielding 13.8, while South Florida is averaging 37 ppg and allowing 9.4.
Bearcats senior quarterback Tony Pike has thrust himself into Heisman Trophy consideration by completing 67 percent of his throws for 1,492 yards (298.4 passing ypg) with 13 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 173 pass attempts. Since the start of last season, Pike has passed for 3,899 yards with a 32-14 TD-to-INT ratio. This year, he’s helped by a rushing attack that’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
The Bulls’ ground-oriented offense is churning out 191 rushing ypg (4.8 per carry), with versatile freshman QB B.J. Daniels accounting for 291 total rushing yards (6.1 per carry) and three TDs. Daniels, who took over the offense after senior Matt Grothe suffered a season-ending injury prior to the Florida State win, is also completing 57.1 percent of his passes for 602 yards, six TD passes and just two INTs.
In failing to cover the last two weeks, the Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, and they’re also 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 as a road chalk and 2-5 ATS in their last seven October outings (though one of those October covers came against USF last year). On the flip side, Cincy carries positive pointspread trends of 5-1 in Big East play, 11-5-1 after a bye, 5-2 on Thursday and 15-6-1 against winning teams.
Like the Bearcats, South Florida has failed to cash in five of its last seven in October, but otherwise the Bulls are on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 3-1 at home, 5-0 as a underdog, 4-1 as a home ‘dog and 5-1 after a bye week.
Cincinnati has topped the total in four straight games after a bye, five of its last seven on the highway and four of its last five in Big East play. However, the ‘Cats are on “under” sprees of 13-3-1 in October and 8-0 when playing in the Thursday spotlight. For South Florida, the under is on runs of 5-1 overall, 7-1 as an underdog and 6-0 against winning teams, but eight of the team’s last 10 lined games at Raymond James Stadium have gone over the total.
Finally, the under is 4-2 in the six meetings between these schools this decade (2-1 at South Florida).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NLCS
Philadelphia (3-1) at L.A. Dodgers (3-0)
The Phillies and Dodgers meet for the right to go to the World Series for the second straight year and the fifth time since 1977 as they kick off the best-of-7 National League Championship Series at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Clayton Kershaw (8-8, 2.79 ERA), while the defending champs counter with last year’s playoff hero Cole Hamels (10-12, 4.39) in a battle of left-handers.
Philadelphia rallied from a 4-2 ninth-inning deficit Monday in Colorado, scoring three times with two outs to steal a 5-4 victory and oust the Rockies in four games in the best-of-5 divisional series. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven playoff contests dating to last year’s run to the World Series title, and they’re on additional surges of 5-1 in road playoff games, 7-2 in the opening game of any series, 9-2 as an underdog, 10-2 against the N.L. West and 30-11 after a day off.
The Dodgers pulled off a stunning sweep of the Cardinals in the opening round, defeating the N.L. Central champs 5-3 and 3-2 at home, then rolling to a 5-1 series-clinching road victory Saturday. Los Angeles also won its final two regular-season games and thus enters the NLCS on a five-game winning streak (4-0 at home), which comes on the heels of a five-game losing skid. L.A., which had the best record in the National League this season, has also won seven straight games on Thursday.
The Phillies ousted Los Angeles in five games in last year’s NLCS, but the run differential was only 25-20. Going back to last August, Philadelphia is 11-5 against L.A. (4-3 at Dodger Stadium). However, this season, Joe Torre’s squad won four of the seven meetings (2-2 at home). In addition to last year, the Phillies knocked the Dodgers out of the playoffs in 1983 after getting eliminated by Los Angeles in the 1977 and 1978 NLCS.
Hamels, who on the 2009 NLCS and World Series MVPs, struggled in a 5-4 Game 2 loss at home to the Rockies last Wednesday, allowing four runs on seven hits over five innings. Hamels is 0-3 in his last three starts and the Phillies have dropped four straight behind the San Diego native, who has allowed 17 runs (all earned) over 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA) during this four-start stretch. In addition to coming up empty in Hamels’ last four outings overall, the Phillies are 1-5 in his last six on the road, 1-4 in his last five as an underdog and 1-6 in his last seven against opponents with a winning record.
Hamels was just 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 15 road efforts this season, but one of those victories came at Dodger Stadium on June 4 when he pitched a complete-game three-hitter in a 3-0 decision. Hamels has owned the Dodgers in his career, going 4-0 with a 1.64 ERA in six starts, giving up two runs or fewer in each outing while pitching exactly seven innings in the first five contests prior to the complete-game win on June 4. Hamels, who beat the Dodgers in Games 1 and 5 last year in the NLCS, has 39 strikeouts and eight walks allowed in 44 innings versus Los Angeles.
Kershaw got a no-decision in his first-ever postseason start in Game 2 of the NLDS, holding the Cardinals to two runs in 6 2/3 innings, with the Dodgers eventually rallying for a stunning 3-2 walk-off victory. While Kershaw surrendered nine hits, he only walked one and pitched out of trouble on several occasions. Going back to Aug. 25, Kershaw has made six starts, giving up two earned runs or fewer each time out while posting a 2.25 ERA with 38 strikeouts against 11 walks in 36 innings. Still, L.A. is just 3-9 in his last 12 trips to the mound overall, 2-5 in his last seven at home, 2-8 in his last 10 as a favorite, 1-4 in his last five as a home chalk and 0-5 in his last five when opening a series.
Including his outing versus St. Louis last Thursday, Kershaw now has sparkling 1.89 ERA in 17 home starts this year, giving up just two home runs in 95 innings. However, he has just a 3-4 record to show for his home efforts, with the Dodgers going 9-8 as they’ve supported him with an average of just 3.3 runs per outing. The 22-year-old faced the Phillies twice each of the last two years, going 0-3 with a 6.64 ERA. In the two outings this year, Kershaw allowed six runs (all earned) on eight hits with seven walks and 10 strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings, losing 5-3 at home and 3-0 in Philly.
Behind Hamels, the Phillies are on “under” stretches of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 12-3-2 on Thursday. Likewise, with Kershaw toeing the rubber, the Dodgers are on “under” tears of 7-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 4-0 on Thursday and 17-5-1 against teams with a winning record.
As a team, the Phillies carry nothing but “over” streaks, including 12-3-2 overall, 12-2 on the road, 4-1 following a victory and 4-1-1 in the opening game of a series. For the Dodgers, the over is on runs of 5-2-1 at home, 3-0-1 against the N.L. East and 4-1-1 after an off day, but the under is 5-2-1 in their last eight overall and 3-1-1 in their last four on Thursday.
In this rivalry, the under is on runs of 3-1-1 overall and 4-1 at Dodger Stadium. However, in last year’s playoff series, the over was 3-2 (1-1 at Dodger Stadium).
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
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