BIG AL
25-6 ATS NEBRASKA/MIZZOU ESPN TV WINNER
Nebraska at Missouri
Missouri +4
Analysis: At 9 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers plus the points over Nebraska. I did a double-take when I saw this pointspread, as I certainly didn't expect the Tigers to be installed as a 3.5-point home underdog. Clearly, Nebraska is being strongly rated for its #1-ranked defense (7 ppg), and its ninth-ranked offense (39.3 ppg). Still, the 'Huskers have played three creampuffs (Florida Atlantic, Arkansas St, and La-Lafayette) to go along with its game at then-No. 13 Virginia Tech. But the Huskers lost that game to the Hokies, 16-15, and QB Zac Lee's numbers were less-than-mediocre vs. Virginia Tech (11-for-30 passing; 136 yards; 2 Interceptions). Last year, Missouri drilled Nebraska 52-17, and the Tigers have opened up this 2009 season with a 4-0 record, including a blowout 37-9 win over Illinois. Granted, Mizzou had Heisman Trophy contender Chase Daniel at quarterback last season, but sophomore Blaine Gabbert (who once had committed to Nebraska, before going to Missouri) has taken over the reins this season, with nary a drop-off. Gabbert is leading an offense that's 15th in points scored (36.8 ppg) and 16th in yards (453 ypg). Overall this season, he's passed for over 1100 yards, 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. The Tigers also have played great at home at Faurot Field, winning 23 of their last 27 games, including three straight over Nebraska. And although not as good as Nebraska's defense, this 2009 Tigers squad is playing much better 'D' under first-year coordinator Dave Steckel. Unlike Matt Eberflus, who co-ordinated the defense last season, Steckel prefers to keep his blitz packages in check, and instead play a lot of zone. The result is that Missouri is giving up a lot of "dink-and-dunk" yards, but not big plays (only three plays have gone for 20+ yards vs. Missouri this season). The 'Huskers have also only won once in their previous 15 road games vs. ranked opponents, and they're a dreadful 6-25 ATS away from home off a double-digit home win. Finally, Missouri falls into 35-12, 37-13, and 111-47 ATS systems of mine that each play on certain rested home dogs off a straight-up win. Take the points with the home dog.