To confirm:
PICK: UAB
Your pick will be graded at: 10 Belmont
EXPERT: Ben Burns
REASON FOR PICK: I'm taking the points with UAB. I respect the Golden Eagles. They're a solid and very experienced team. However, I feel that this is a tough spot for them to be laying double-digits. Last week, the Golden Eagles traveled to Kansas and went toe-to-toe with a Top 25 opponent. They played hard and covered the spread but lost the game outright. That snapped a lengthy winning streak, which dated back to last season. For a team which had dreams of finishing with an undefeated season, that can be difficult to bounce back from - even if those dreams were a bit unrealistic. Here, they'll be playing the middle of three road games and they've got another BCS school, former CUSA rival Louisville (now in the Big East) on deck. In other words, they could easily overlook lowly UAB. It should also be noted that the Golden Eagles are expected to be without both RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown, both of whom are very important to this offense.
On the other hand, the Blazers should be fully focused on the task at hand. For starters, this is a rare home game. They've got a brutal schedule, as they've just played two on the road and their next three games, following a bye, will also be on the road. That means that they should know they need to make the most of their opportunity here at home. Additionally, the Blazers have had this game circled as the Golden Eagles completely destroyed them last season, winning by a score of 70-14.
The Blazers haven't forgotten that game as they returned 18 starters from last year's team, including dual-threat quarterback Joe Webb. In addition to throwing for 612 yards and five touchdowns, Webb also has 432 yards and four TD's on the ground. While I won't go as far as calling them as talented as their guests, I do feel that this is the best UAB team which Neil Callaway has had.
The Blazers have split their two games here. The victory came in blowout fashion (44-24 over Rice) and the loss was by only two points, 35-33 vs. SMU. Looking back further and we find that the Blazers are 3-3 SU their last six home games but that all three losses came by four points or less. I expect this one to also come down to the wire as the revenge-minded Blazers, who are 4-0 ATS their last four against teams with a winning record, prove to be the 'hungrier' team and come away with at least the cover. *8 Roast