StatSystems Sports CBB Report, Thursday 1/6/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 1/6/11
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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••• GLASS CLEANERS! •••
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The revitalization of the Bearcats can be attributed to one main factor: defense. Cincinnati is at or near the top of nearly every defensive statistic in the NCAA, ranking 3rd in points allowed per game (54.4), 12th in opponents field goal percentage (37.5) and 36th in opponents three-point field goal percentage (29.3). The team also does a great job protecting the glass, posting an absurd plus-11.3 in rebound margin.
However, the Musketeers have recently dominated the Skyline Chili Crosstown Shootout. UC still leads the series, 47-30, but Xavier has claimed 10 of the last 14 games, including three straight. The Bearcats figure to press the action and try to use a rotation that can go as many as 11 deep to grind down the Musketeers, which tout a roster that has been trimmed perilously thin due to injuries.
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(All results ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of Stat/Systems Sports. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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•••QUICK HITS•••
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--Cincinnati is 14-0, but ranked #26, 7th in Big East; they're 2-6 in last eight games vs crosstown rival Xavier, losing last three years by 5-10-4 points, with LY's loss in double OT. Bearcats are 6-2 vs spread as fave, but they've also played #340 schedule. Xavier split its last six after 5-1 start; they're 0-2 on road, losing by 11 at Miami, 10 at Gonzaga.
--Villanova won its last four games vs South Florida by average score of 66-54, winning last two here 49-46/70-61; Wildcats covered last three in series- they're 3-0 in true road games, with 76-36 win at Monmouth the only one that wasn't in Philly. Villanova plays unbeaten Cincinnati next game Sunday. USF lost its first two Big East games by 9-5 points.
--Wright State is 7-1 in last eight games vs Ill-Chicago, winning three of its last four visits here, with wins by 10ot-1-17 points; Raiders won five of last six games, but are 1-4 on road (only win by 4 at Central. Michigan). UIC is 0-3 in Horizon play, losing by 2-2-24 points- they've lost six of last seven games overall. Horizon home underdogs are 3-2.
--Detroit beat Loyola twice LY, by 17-20 points, after going 1-7 in its last eight series games; Titans lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 5-10-6-26 points. Detroit is 2-5 on road, 4-1-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 9-11-2-8-6 points. Loyola 1-4 in last five games when they're the favorite. Horizon home favorites are 8-3 vs spread.
--Stanford beat Arizona State by 9 in Pac-10 tourney LY, after losing to Sun Devils by 18-8 points during regular season; Cardinal lost two of its last three visits here. Stanford is 1-4 away from home, losing at Butler by 33, by 11 at Oklahoma State- they went 1-2 in neutral floor games. ASU won five of its last six games; they're 1-5 as a favorite.
--St Mary's won its last eight games vs LMU, winning last four visits to this gym by 16-31-13-18 points. Gaels are 1-1 in true road games, with 73-53 win at New Mexico State, 69-55 loss at San Diego State- they are 4-2 as a favorite. Lions are 4-2 in their last six games after a 1-5 start vs D-I foes; they're 3-3 against the spread as an underdog.
--Illinois won 11 of last 12 games vs Northwestern; Wildcats lost six in a row in Champaign by 10-36-16-11-33-6 points, losing in OT here LY. Illini won first two Big 11 games by 10-8 points, beating Wisconsin last game- they're 8-6 as a favorite, 2-0 in Big 11. Northwestern lost its first two league games by 13-3 points- they're 0-3 as an underdog.
--Cal-Santa Barbara is 9-2 in last 11 games vs Cal-Davis, winning four in a row by average score of 73-63; Gauchos won four of last five visits here, winning by 14-18-4-4 points. UCSB lost its Big West opener at home to Long Beach; they're 2-3 in true road games, winning at Santa Clara and UNLV. Davis covered its last five games as an underdog.
--Oregon State won its first two Pac-10 games, scoring 78 ppg; they're 2-6 in last eight games vs Washington State, losing three of last four visits to Pullman, losing by 15-23-5 points. Beavers won last three games after a 4-6 start- they're 2-1 as a dog. Coogs lost last three games, giving up an average of 74.7 ppg, but this is their first home game in four weeks.
--Arizona lost three of last four games vs Cal, with only win by 4 points here LY, but Bears lost six of last seven visits here, with losses by 20-21-5-9-10-4 points. Cal lost freshman PG (transfer) this week who had started 11 of 13 games; they're 2-3 away from home, losing at Stanford by 15 in Pac-10 opener. Arizona is 8-3 vs spread as a favorite.
--Boise State won 13 of last 14 games vs San Jose State, but lost here by hoop LY; their previous six wins here were by 16-3-1-2-6-6 points. 8-5 San Jose lost its first two WAC games, by 13-9 points- they're 3-1 as an underdog this season. Broncos lost last four road games; five of their last eight games were decided by three or less points.
--Charleston is 13-2 in last 15 games vs Furman, winning last five here by average score of 77-67; Cougars won five of last six visits here, winning by 6ot-2-3ot-7-3 points. Charleston lost two of last three games, getting whacked at Morehead State Sunday, two days after they beat Tennessee by 13. Paladins won first two conference games by 15-13 points.
--Montana won seven of last nine games vs Northern Colorado, going 3-1 in last four visits here, with wins by 17-11-2 points- they upset Bears in semifinals of Big Sky tourney last March. Griz are 3-3 on road with win at UCLA- they won first two league games, by 3-19 points. Bears won their first two Big Sky games, both on road, scoring 77 ppg.
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•••SITUATIONAL TEAM POWER TRENDS•••
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The Stat/Systems Sports Situational Power Trends uncover certain situations where a team outperforms or underperforms their normal level of play. Unlike the Stat/Systems Super Situations, all trend records listed apply to the team in question. Only trends which apply to the current game and possess exceptionally bad or good records are displayed. These trends are great indicators of how teams react to certain situations – coming off a close win, against division opponents, after a loss giving up a high shooting percentage, etc. Many of these situations will provide a different level of motivation and preparation level for the upcoming game.
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--DENVER is 1-15 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 55.6, OPPONENT 64.8 - (Rating = 6*)
--DENVER is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.9, OPPONENT 65.8 - (Rating = 6*)
--SAN DIEGO is 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 60.5, OPPONENT 69 - (Rating = 5*)
--OREGON ST is 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON ST 63, OPPONENT 62.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 26 or less rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.8, OPPONENT 64.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 55.9, OPPONENT 65.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--CAL DAVIS is 16-2 ATS (+13.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 75.8, OPPONENT 71.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WRIGHT ST is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WRIGHT ST 64.6, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 59.4, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) as an underdog this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 59.5, OPPONENT 75.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-10 ATS (-10 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 62.2, OPPONENT 73.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 62.7, OPPONENT 72.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 61.2, OPPONENT 72.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--SACRAMENTO ST is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SACRAMENTO ST 66.7, OPPONENT 68.3 - (Rating = 4*)
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--FLA INTERNATIONAL is 10-0 OVER (+10 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was FLA INTERNATIONAL 71.6, OPPONENT 82 - (Rating = 5*)
--IDAHO ST is 17-3 OVER (+13.7 Units) after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IDAHO ST 65.9, OPPONENT 74 - (Rating = 4*)
--OAKLAND is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OAKLAND 80.9, OPPONENT 71.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--VILLANOVA is 18-4 OVER (+13.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VILLANOVA 82, OPPONENT 73.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--W KENTUCKY is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was W KENTUCKY 81.7, OPPONENT 70.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--WOFFORD is 9-0 OVER (+9 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WOFFORD 74.6, OPPONENT 74.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--CALIFORNIA is 20-4 OVER (+15.6 Units) after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 71.5, OPPONENT 71.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 64.1, OPPONENT 60.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--COLL OF CHARLESTON is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was COLL OF CHARLESTON 80.7, OPPONENT 77.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--IL-CHICAGO is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IL-CHICAGO 73.4, OPPONENT 71.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--FRESNO ST is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1997.
The average score was FRESNO ST 75, OPPONENT 74.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 27-7 UNDER (+19.3 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games since 1997.
The average score was DETROIT 58.6, OPPONENT 62.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MONTANA is 35-12 OVER (+21.8 Units) after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread since 1997.
The average score was MONTANA 72.7, OPPONENT 70.4 - (Rating = 3*)
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--MURRAY ST is 17-1 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MURRAY ST 75.5, OPPONENT 60.1 - (Rating = 10*)
--PACIFIC is 16-1 (+16.1 Units) against the money line after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PACIFIC 69.5, OPPONENT 58.1 - (Rating = 10*)
--CAL DAVIS is 13-1 (+19.4 Units) against the money line after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 75.8, OPPONENT 71.1 - (Rating = 9*)
--SAN DIEGO is 3-20 (-21.6 Units) against the money line after scoring 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 61.7, OPPONENT 66.1 - (Rating = 9*)
--WOFFORD is 1-7 (-16.8 Units) against the money line after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was WOFFORD 74.4, OPPONENT 74.8 - (Rating = 9*)
--SAMFORD is 5-15 (-21.9 Units) against the money line against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAMFORD 58, OPPONENT 63.2 - (Rating = 9*)
--SAMFORD is 1-8 (-15.7 Units) against the money line versus poor passing teams, averaging <=12 assists/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAMFORD 58.2, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 8*)
--OREGON is 1-5 (-15.7 Units) against the money line after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was OREGON 67.9, OPPONENT 71.1 - (Rating = 8*)
--JACKSONVILLE ST is 8-16 (-31.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE ST 68.8, OPPONENT 67.3 - (Rating = 7*)
--JACKSONVILLE ST is 3-9 (-19.3 Units) against the money line off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE ST 63.2, OPPONENT 68.9 - (Rating = 7*)
--SAMFORD is 1-5 (-15.6 Units) against the money line after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was SAMFORD 51.7, OPPONENT 60.9 - (Rating = 7*)
--WOFFORD is 2-8 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in all lined games this season.
The average score was WOFFORD 72.2, OPPONENT 74.2 - (Rating = 7*)
--WOFFORD is 1-5 (-14.8 Units) against the money line after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was WOFFORD 76.7, OPPONENT 76.4 - (Rating = 7*)
--OREGON is 2-10 (-15.7 Units) against the money line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OREGON 67.1, OPPONENT 79.6 - (Rating = 6*)
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--FRESNO ST is 15-39 (-27.9 Units) against the 1rst half line off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1997.
The average score was FRESNO ST 34.4, OPPONENT 35.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--IL-CHICAGO is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IL-CHICAGO 31.6, OPPONENT 28.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--OREGON is 2-17 (-16.7 Units) against the 1rst half line off 2 consecutive home losses since 1997.
The average score was OREGON 27.4, OPPONENT 33 - (Rating = 4*)
--UC-SANTA BARBARA is 10-1 (+8.9 Units) against the 1rst half line when the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UC-SANTA BARBARA 36, OPPONENT 31.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-2 (+9.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLL OF CHARLESTON 38.4, OPPONENT 33.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--STANFORD is 4-14 (-11.4 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 30.3, OPPONENT 32.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--STANFORD is 1-9 (-8.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was STANFORD 26.1, OPPONENT 32 - (Rating = 3*)
--CAL DAVIS is 7-0 (+7 Units) against the 1rst half line off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 32.3, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--COLL OF CHARLESTON is 27-12 (+13.8 Units) against the 1rst half line versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was COLL OF CHARLESTON 35.9, OPPONENT 33.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--TROY is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TROY 38, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MOREHEAD ST is 32-14 (+16.6 Units) against the 1rst half line against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 33.2, OPPONENT 27.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MOREHEAD ST is 22-7 (+14.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 33.2, OPPONENT 27.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--TENNESSEE ST is 14-3 (+10.7 Units) against the 1rst half line as a road underdog of 6 or more points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE ST 31.2, OPPONENT 35.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--N ARIZONA is 0-8 (-8.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was N ARIZONA 28.1, OPPONENT 39 - (Rating = 3*)
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--DENVER is 17-1 UNDER (+15.9 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 26.7, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 6*)
--JACKSONVILLE ST is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE ST 28.6, OPPONENT 30.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 20-3 UNDER (+16.7 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 27.9, OPPONENT 24.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--DENVER is 18-2 UNDER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1997.
The average score was DENVER 29.4, OPPONENT 28.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--JACKSONVILLE ST is 15-2 UNDER (+12.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was JACKSONVILLE ST 27.5, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--ILLINOIS is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ILLINOIS 37.3, OPPONENT 31.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DETROIT is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 26.3, OPPONENT 27.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--TENNESSEE ST is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TENNESSEE ST 30.2, OPPONENT 31.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--CAL POLY-SLO is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was CAL POLY-SLO 23.1, OPPONENT 25.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--S FLORIDA is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was S FLORIDA 27, OPPONENT 27 - (Rating = 4*)
--S FLORIDA is 8-0 UNDER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line this season.
The average score was S FLORIDA 25.1, OPPONENT 25.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 26.7, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 24-6 UNDER (+17.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where they attempted 50 or less shots over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 28, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 4*)
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*** XAVIER @ CINCINNATI ***
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -9, Total: 129
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GAME BREAKDOWN: Of the many developing storylines of the 2010-11 college basketball season, the emergence of the Cincinnati Bearcats into the Top 25 has been a surprise that few, if any saw coming. The Big East coaches certainly didn’t foresee this as they chose the Bearcats to finish 12th in the 16-team league. While Mick Cronin’s team has surged to a 14-0 start, the men from the Queen City still have their share of skeptics. Why? Well if we were to play the Bracketology tournament résumé board game ($9.95 from Milton Bradley) on January 6, we would see that the Bearcats have an RPI that rates them at No. 66, which is not horrible, but definitely not Final Four material either. A closer look reveals that Cincy presently boasts the 327th toughest schedule. Now THAT’S cause for doubt. The Bearcats can go a long way towards showing fans nationally that its Top 25 ranking matches the early-season hype with a win over cross-town archrival and mid-major standout Xavier.
On the surface, the Musketeers do not blow you away with the numbers. Head coach Chris Mack’s 8-4 team is only averaging 70.5 PPG, and are shooting a pedestrian 43.7% from the field. But three of the four defeats came versus teams that made last year’s NCAA Tournament (Old Dominion, Gonzaga, and Florida) with two of the losses coming by single digits. The Musketeers have also registered a victory over 2010 NCAA runner-up Butler. As Tu Holloway goes, so goes Xavier. The 6-foot junior guard leads the team in scoring (21.3 PPG), assists (5.6 APG), steals (1.7 SPG) and if that wasn’t enough, he is also hauling down 4.3 rebounds per contest. If Cincinnati is thinking of wearing him down, that effort will likely be futile. Holloway averages 39.1 minutes per game. Holloway leads a quartet of Musketeers who score in double figures, with leading rebounder Jamel McLean (10.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG) and 7-foot center Kenny Frease (11.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG) manning things in the paint. Sophomore guard Mark Lyons is second on the team with 12.6 PPG as he has attempted 10-to-13 field goals in every game this season.
When last season’s leading scorer, freshman Lance Stephenson, left for the NBA the Bearcats were left with an offensive hole to fill. Enter junior guard Dion Dixon, who is averaging 12.7 PPG, while shooting 35.4% from beyond the arc. Dixon has more than doubled his 4.9 PPG scoring output from a season ago, and his FG% (from 35.1% to 45.3%) has soared from last season. Junior forward Yancy Gates (11.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG) is second on the team in points and rebounds, and leads the squad in blocked shots. Freshman Sean Kilpatrick has been a very pleasant surprise, contributing 10.1 PPG while shooting a blistering 41.8% from three-point territory. Six-foot-11 senior Ibrahima Thomas from Senegal is leading the team in rebounds (7.0 RPG) and also chipping in 7.9 PPG.
Last year’s meeting at the Cintas Center was an all-time classic, as host Xavier defeated Cincinnati 83-79 in double overtime behind Holloway’s game-high 26 points. It was the first double-OT game in the history of the Xavier-Cincinnati rivalry, which began in 1928. The Bearcats have lost three straight and 10 of the past 14 in this series. Since 1997, Xavier is 4-1-1 ATS (3-3 SU) at Cincinnati. Thursday night Mick Cronin looks to put a stop to that losing streak, while extending his team’s season-opening win streak to 15, all the while showing some more doubters out there that this year’s Bearcats are very much for real.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--XAVIER is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was XAVIER 68.4, OPPONENT 67.2 - (Rating = 2*).
--Mick Cronin is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games as the coach of CINCINNATI.
The average score was CINCINNATI 69.4, OPPONENT 65.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--Chris Mack is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game as the coach of XAVIER.
The average score was XAVIER 74.0, OPPONENT 74.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CINCINNATI) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home win by 10 points or more.
(116-62 since 1997.) (65.2%, +47.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (147-33)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 75.4, Opponent 65.8 (Average point differential = +9.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 56 (32.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-13).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (37-24).
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*** VILLANOVA @ SOUTH FLORIDA ***
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Villanova -7, Total: 127
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GAME BREAKDOWN: As the season of giving and receiving wrapped up at about the same time that the first week of conference play was winding down, it seems that the biggest thing teams in the Big East were exchanging were not gifts, but scares. South Florida went on the road last week to Connecticut and pushed the then-No. 4 Huskies into overtime before stubbornly going down 66-61. Villanova received a jolt when cellar-dweller Rutgers took a four-point lead into halftime at the Pavilion, before ‘Nova broke open a seven-point game late to win 81-65. Thursday night in Tampa, the Bulls will try to put more than a scare into the Wildcats as they get their second chance in as many games to knock off a Top-10 conference opponent.
At 4-0 all-time, Villanova has never lost to South Florida in league play, but the two games played in Florida have been tight ones. A 49-46 squeaker in January 2006, and a 70-61 victory in January 2009 in which the ‘Cats had to pull away late. Villanova’s top scorer Corey Stokes (16.9 PPG) had 23 points in the win over Rutgers, and is averaging 22 points per game over his past three contests. Despite scoring over 77 PPG as a team, the Wildcats have been prone to suffer from occasional bouts of clankers syndrome, an affliction which entails the proclivity to have numerous shot balls deflect repeatedly off the side of the rim. The ‘Cats are shooting 44.8% from the floor, and the Bulls are shooting 42.0% as a squad. Those percentages could take a hit Thursday night because each team is among the best at defending in the Big East. Villanova is limiting opponents to a conference best 37.3 FG%, and USF is not far behind as it is allowing a mere 38.4 FG%.
The Bulls held the Huskies to just 37.5% shooting from the floor, but unfortunately lost their shooting touch at the worst possible time. Stan Heath’s team could only muster 15 points in the game’s final 16 minutes. The Bulls struggled mightily once Jim Calhoun decided to resort to a zone defense against them, and since Villanova’s coaching staff watches game tape too, expect Jay Wright to try and force USF to make some shots against a Villanova zone as well. Augustus Gilchrist (11.8 PPG, 5.9 RPG) had his second-best point and rebound effort of the season versus Connecticut with 21 points and eight boards. Sophomore guard Jawanza Poland averages 10.2 PPG, after Gilchrist and Poland, no other Bulls players are scoring in double figures for the swishing-challenged Bulls offense. USF only averages 60.9 PPG, which is right near the bottom (315th to be exact) of the Division I rankings. Just to put that number into better perspective, Thursday night’s opponent, Villanova, averages 63.6 points per game just from its starting five.
South Florida has shot under 40 percent in all four meetings with Villanova, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. However, this percentage has climbed each game -- 29%, 32%, 35% and 38% in last season’s loss. The Wildcats have also increased their shooting accuracy with each meeting -– 30%, 42%, 44% and 47% last year.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--Stan Heath is 8-21 ATS (27.6%, -15.1 Units) off a road loss as the coach of SOUTH FLORIDA.
The average score was SOUTH FLORIDA 63.9, OPPONENT 68.3 - (Rating = 3*).
--Jay Wright is 56-40 ATS (58.3%, +12.0 Units) in road games as the coach of VILLANOVA.
The average score was VILLANOVA 72.6, OPPONENT 69.9 - (Rating = 3*).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Over - Home teams where the total is 129.5 or less (S FLORIDA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(37-8 since 1997.) (82.2%, +28.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 122.9
The average score in these games was: Team 64.6, Opponent 67.8 (Total points scored = 132.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26 (57.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-5).
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*** NORTHWESTERN @ ILLINOIS ***
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Illinois -9, Total: 144.5
----------------------------------------------
GAME BREAKDOWN: Illinois hopes to continue its home dominance of Northwestern when the two teams meet on Thursday night. The Illini have won eight straight games against the Wildcats in Champaign, dating back to 1999.
Illinois senior guard Demetri McCamey (16.3 PPG, 7.3 APG, 52.2% three-pointers), seems to be heating up just in time for Big Ten play. After a 20-point, 10-assist effort in an 87-77 win at Iowa on Dec. 29, he had 21 and seven assists in a 69-61 victory over Wisconsin on Sunday. Last season, the senior scored 15.2 PPG against conference opponents and averaged 11.0 PPG versus Northwestern. D.J. Richardson (11.6 PPG, 45.5% three-pointers) and Mike Davis (11.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG) are the other two double-digit scorers for the Illini. Richardson had six points against the Badgers, while Davis finished with 11 points and 14 rebounds.
The Wildcats look to rebound from 65-62 setback versus Michigan State on Monday, their third loss in four games and second straight in the Big Ten. Northwestern hung with the Spartans late, despite shooting a season-low 31.6% from the field. Leading scorer John Shurna (21.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 58.3% three-pointers) struggled mightily with his shot, finishing 1-of-11 from the field and 1-for-5 on three-pointers. Shurna, who has been bothered by a sore ankle, scored only 11 points and is 9-of-29 from the field in his past three games. He averaged 23 points in two games against Illinois last season, and was 6-of-14 from beyond the arc. Drew Crawford (14.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG) led the Wildcats with 17 points and eight boards against Michigan State, but he shot only 5-of-16 from the floor. Michael Thompson (14.8 PPG, 4.5 APG), second on the team in scoring, chipped in with 12 points, but hit just 5-of-13 field goals.
Illinois and Northwestern split two games last season, with each team winning on its home court. It took overtime for the Illini to claim an 89-83 decision at home on Dec. 30, 2009, as Mike Tisdale (9.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG) led Illinois with 31 points and 11 rebounds. Northwestern returned the favor with a 73-68 triumph last January, which ended an 11-game losing streak to Illinois. Illinois is 21-3 SU in this series since 1997, Northwestern has won the past three meetings ATS.
• TOP RATED TEAM TRENDS
-----------------------------------
--NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good passing teams, averaging >=16 assists/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 69.1, OPPONENT 67.7 - (Rating = 3*).
--Bill Carmody is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a close loss by 3 points or less to a conference rival as the coach of NORTHWESTERN.
The average score was NORTHWESTERN 67.4, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 3*).
--Bruce Weber is 30-11 UNDER (73.2%, +17.9 Units) versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season as the coach of ILLINOIS. The average score was ILLINOIS 63.9, OPPONENT 55.6 - (Rating = 3*).
• BETTING SYSTEM: Play Under - Home teams against the total (ILLINOIS) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%), after a game where a team made 55% of their shots or better.
(119-65 since 1997.) (64.7%, +47.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 142.9
The average score in these games was: Team 75.1, Opponent 65.5 (Total points scored = 140.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 79 (41.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (5-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-19).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (61-32).
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• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS CBB - Display the Highest Rated Active CBB - Against the Spread Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* TENNESSEE ST +11.5 - (80.6%)
3* ST MARYS-CA -9.5 - (79.1%)
3* DENVER +7 - (76.9%)
3* BOISE ST -2.5 - (75.6%)
3* PACIFIC -10 - (73.7%)
3* OREGON +23 - (71.9%)
--PLAY ON - Road teams as an underdog or pick (TENNESSEE ST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more.
(29-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-15 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 68.3, Opponent 67.5 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (52.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (56-33).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ST MARYS-CA) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 85 points or more 2 straight games.
(34-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (36-7 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7
The average score in these games was: Team 78, Opponent 66.6 (Average point differential = +11.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 16 (37.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (82-80).
--PLAY ON - A road team (DENVER) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team.
(30-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-11 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.7
The average score in these games was: Team 69.2, Opponent 64.7 (Average point differential = +4.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (45% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (73-39).
--PLAY AGAINST - An underdog (SAN JOSE ST) - off a loss against a conference rival against opponent off 2 home no-covers where the team won straight up as a favorite.
(34-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (41-5 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 7.3
The average score in these games was: Team 72.5, Opponent 61.5 (Average point differential = +11)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (34.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (78-49).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (CAL POLY-SLO) - after having covered 4 of their last 5 against the spread, playing with 5 or 6 days rest.
(42-15 since 1997.) (73.7%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (55-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 12.8
The average score in these games was: Team 78.8, Opponent 62.4 (Average point differential = +16.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (31% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-5).
--PLAY ON - A road team (OREGON) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=60 shots/game), after a game where a team made 33% of their shots or worse.
(64-25 since 1997.) (71.9%, +36.5 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-60)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 9.1
The average score in these games was: Team 71.7, Opponent 77.6 (Average point differential = -5.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 34 (38.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
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• HIGHEST RATED OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS CBB - Display the Highest Rated Active CBB - Over/Under Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* VILLANOVA/S FLORIDA OVER 127 - (82.9%)
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (S FLORIDA) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record.
(29-6 since 1997.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 125.1
The average score in these games was: Team 66.7, Opponent 68.1 (Total points scored = 134.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 20 (57.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF ATS SUPER SITUATIONS CBB - Display the Highest Rated Active CBB - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* IL-CHICAGO +2 - (88.0%)
4* SACRAMENTO ST +3.5 - (88.0%)
4* UNC-GREENSBORO +2 - (84.6%)
3* OREGON ST +7.5 - (79.4%)
3* FLA INTERNATIONAL +1.5 - (77.5%)
3* DENVER +3.5 - (77.5%)
3* ST MARYS-CA -5.5 - (77.5%)
3* WASHINGTON -12 - (76.9%)
3* CINCINNATI -5 - (75.6%)
3* JACKSONVILLE ST +5 (75.4%)
3* CAL POLY-SLO +6 - (74.5%)
3* CALIFORNIA +8 - (74.2%)
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (WRIGHT ST) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (20 to 40%).
(22-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.4, Opponent 28.1 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (39-23).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MONTANA ST) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a bad team (20 to 40%).
(22-3 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.0%, +18.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.4, Opponent 28.1 (Average first half point differential = +3.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (39-23).
--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (UNC-GREENSBORO) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after allowing 85 points or more.
(22-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31, Opponent 27.8 (Average first half point differential = +3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-3).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (42-22).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (WASHINGTON ST) - off a road loss against a conference rival against opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less.
(27-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +19.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30, Opponent 32.1 (Average first half point differential = -2.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (57-30).
--PLAY ON - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (FLA INTERNATIONAL) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (67-74 PPG), after a close win by 3 points or less.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.4, Opponent 30.9 (Average first half point differential = +1.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-6).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (61-43).
--PLAY ON - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - off a close win by 3 points or less over a conference rival, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team.
(31-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.8, Opponent 28.3 (Average first half point differential = +4.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (15-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (73-41).
--PLAY ON - Road favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ST MARYS-CA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more.
(31-9 since 1997.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 40.6, Opponent 33 (Average first half point differential = +7.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
--PLAY ON - Favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line (WASHINGTON) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
(30-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.9%, +20.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 12.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 42.3, Opponent 26 (Average first half point differential = +16.3)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (68-42).
--PLAY ON - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (CINCINNATI) - good shooting team (45-47.5%) against an average shooting team (42.5-45%), after 5 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less.
(34-11 since 1997.) (75.6%, +21.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 36.8, Opponent 27.5 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
--PLAY AGAINST - A favorite vs. the 1rst half line (E KENTUCKY) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a terrible team (<=20%).
(43-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.4%, +27.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.5, Opponent 31.4 (Average first half point differential = -1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (22-5).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (87-52).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (PACIFIC) - poor pressure defensive team - forcing <=14 turnovers/game, after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers.
(35-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 29.1, Opponent 32.3 (Average first half point differential = -3.2)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-8).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (55-26).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (ARIZONA) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games.
(49-17 since 1997.) (74.2%, +30.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 8.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 30.2, Opponent 35.7 (Average first half point differential = -5.5)
The situation's record this season is: (5-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-10).
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• HIGHEST RATED FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER SUPER SITUATIONS CBB - Display the Highest Rated Active CBB - First Half Line Super Situations for Upcoming Games.
Situational analysis uncovers conditions and patterns where teams have consistently outperformed or underperformed their normal levels. These systems are not team specific - the principle is that teams fall into patterns regardless of personnel (i.e. good passing teams, teams seeking revenge, cold teams on a losing streak, etc.).
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4* VILLANOVA/S FLORIDA UNDER 59 - (85.2%)
3* NORTHWESTERN/ILLINOIS UNDER 68 - (75.9%)
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the first half total is 60.5 or less (S FLORIDA) - after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers.
(23-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 57.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 26.7, Opponent 24.2 (Total first half points scored = 50.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (26-9).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (ILLINOIS) - in a game involving two good excellent shooting teams (>=47%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game).
(44-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.9%, +28.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 68.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.7, Opponent 31.7 (Total first half points scored = 63.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (16-0).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (62-36).
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10:35 pm) denver nuggets -3
