Malinsky
Sorry for not being able to post yesterday. Please find reply from David himself.
"The Wednesday basketball results were dismal"
Dave is being far far to kind to himself. Here are the year to date basketball results
NBA Minus 85.8 units
College Minus 62.4 units
Now on to Thursdays Plays
5* #529 ILLINOIS-CHICAGO over WRIGHT STATE
A market surge that has pushed Wright State out to -19 is calling for an extreme degree of dominance here – to see a line this high for a Total being priced at less than 120 is almost unheard of. And it is wrong. The Raiders do not bring the pace, offense, or focus to get this margin.If we told you that one of these teams was shooting 39.7 percent through nine conference games, averaging just 62.2 points in regulation in the process and having more turnovers than assists, you would automatically think we are referring to U.I.C., but that is not the case – it is Brad Brownell’s squad that has put up those anemic numbers. And it is not as though a couple of players are weighing the numbers down – 12 different Raiders have seen action in Horizon play, and note of them are shooting better than 45 percent from the field. So it becomes two-fold here – when you do not score easily it also means that you play much more deliberately, and the combination of an inefficient offense at a slow pace turns this kind of pointspread into a mountain. And then there is the focus issue. One of the most difficult things for a college basketball team to do is get up for a home game against an opponent that you have already whipped on the road. Not only is that working against Wright, but there is also a quick turnaround before a revenge game on this court against Loyola-Chi on Saturday. Brownell would love to just get the win and move on here. That is nothing new for this coach – since taking over the program, only five of 69 conference games have been won by more than this pointsread.We do not have to paint a pretty picture here about Jimmy Collins and the Flames – at 1-8 in league play not much has gone right. But note that six of those losses came in single digits, and with three SR’s and two JR’s in the starting lineup they are not going to be overwhelmed by a hostile environment. In SR point guard Spencer Stewart they have someone with 63 career starts, and 6-11/270 K. C. Robbins now a mainstay in the rotation (59 minutes the last two games) they will not get pushed around inside. Like Wright, they also play at a snails pace most evenings, and that helps them to stay comfortably inside of the high plateau that has been set.
4* #525 CENTRAL MICHIGAN over MIAMI O.
A combination of a “Tough Out” vs. a favorite that struggles to score makes this pointspread a mountain to overcome at the anticipated slow pace.Ernie Zeigler is not going to induce many superstars to come to Mount Pleasant, but the former Ben Howland disciple will install a work ethic on the players that do end up in a Chippewa uniform. So in the fourth year of running his system, and with the top four players in the rotation having been there all four, it is no surprise to see progress – a had-nosed and gritty bunch now sits all alone atop the M.A.C. West standings. And that corps of SR’s Robbie Harman, Jordan Bliter abd Chris Kellerman, along with JR Marko Spica (consider him a SR in terms of years in the Zeigler system, since he sat out LY with an injury) has the experience and poise to hold up well in hostile road environments. There are no NBA scouts flocking to watch them play, but their grit and tenacity shows in a sparkling defensive ratio of 284 TO’s forced vs. only 165 assists allowed, and it is that defense that keys the matchup tonight.Charlie Coles can not get the pieces to fit this season. Nine different RedHawks have started at least two different games, with only Kenny Hayes in the starting lineup every time, and in the best of settings points are hard to come by – they are only averaging 57 ppg in regulation in M.A.C. play. But this is not the best of settings. There was precious little down time following that draining double-O.T. loss at Ball State on Tuesday, yet another game in which the offense simply could not find a rhythm (a nine-point lead in the second half got away), and that means not only a lot of tired legs here, but also a lack of tactical preparation time for what Central will throw at them, a major issue because they are already -49 in assist to TO ratio. Meanwhile the Chippewas have been off since Saturday, which brings them in both fresh and well-prepared, and that has the underdog in the hunt to the final possessions to win this game outright.
6* #547 CALIFORNIA over ARIZONA STATE
Before we got into Pac 10 play our portfolio included a lot of anti-Arizona State investments, cashing 6* tickets with Duke and Brigham Young, and also a 4* with San Diego State. The problem is that Herb Sendek lost James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph to the NBA without the kind of big-time talent needed to replace them, and it showed in non-conference play. The Pac 10 is another matter, because of how week that league is this season, but the fact that the Sun Devils have opened with a winning league record sets this up perfectly for us – now we not only get to take the superior team as an underdog, but also one with “Tough Out” badges, and one that matches up awfully well.Because the A.S.U. talent is limited, especially with Jamelle McMillan still listed as doubtful for tonight, success or failure all comes down to Herb Sendek’s matchup zone defense. There can be some success with it, because his designs are excellent and his team does play hard. But what happens when that zone goes from being a strength to a weakness? You beat it with three things – 1. Experience; 2. Savvy ball-handlers; and 3. Good perimeter shooting. And guess what Cal brings to the table?In this day and age it is very rare for a guard tandem to play together as long as Golden Bears Patrick Chistopher and Jerome Randle have. This will be Christopher’s 100th game, and 80th start, and it will be #98 and #62 for Randle. That means a lot of floor time against the Sun Devil zone, and note that in the last two seasons, when they were basically running the show, Cal has averaged 76 ppg in regulation in four meetings against State, with Randle scoring 70 points and dishing 21 assists in 152 floor minutes, and Christopher 69 points and 12 assists in 143. They key an offense that is +41 in assist to turnover ratio this season, and also one that can extend the defense a long way, particularly Randle, who has as much range as any shooter in the nation. They also get the benefit of having Jorge Gutierrez healthy again, with his sparkling 60 percent three-point shooting and 40:15 assist to TO ratio allowing Mike Montgomery to go to three-guard sets to challenge the Sun Devil perimeter even more.Cal does not just win the guard battles here, but with SR’s Theo Robertson and Jamal Boykin up front they control the paint as well – both of those veterans are scoring in double figures, and they have helped the Bears to lead to Pac 10 in rebounding. And naturally the fact that the four best players on the teams are SR’s means a lot in this role – in the Christopher/Randle years the Cal run as a conference road underdog sit at 15-8 ATS, something that should get even better this season because of all that experience. Especially when they are made the underdog despite the fact that they are the better team
4* #504 TORONTO over NEW YORK
A combination of under-rating the Raptors, and over-valuing the influence of them playing back-to-back nights, has this line clearly in the wrong place. So we buy in at excellent value.First note just how well Toronto is playing. A brutal early schedule, both in terms of quality of competition and the limited number of days off (their first 30 games came in just 53 days), made things awfully difficult for a team that was bringing some new faces into the rotation. As such there were some struggles, especially on defense. But now those pieces are coming together in a current 13-5 SU run, and note that every loss in that span came in single digits. The schedule still has not let up, with their difficulty of opponents faced #2 in the league (contrast that with the #27 for the Knicks), but note that they have gone 13-4 SU against teams that do not post winning records, including a 112-104 win over the Knicks on this court two weeks ago that was much more comfortable than the final score can show – they led by as many as 28 points and were never threatened.So is it the back-to-back issue that causes problems here? That should not be the case – they had two full days off prior to beating Miami last night, a game in which Jay Triano had four different reserves play 17 minutes or more, and this is only their fourth game in eight days, and 8th in 17. There are no fatigue issues to be found, and no distractions, with nothing ahead until a home game vs. Indiana on Sunday. It means that Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani can once again exploit that soft New York defensive interior (they scored 42 points on 16-23 shooting in the first meeting), and their emerging team confidence sets them up to make the kind of plays down the stretch to win this one outright, with the points being offered a nice cushion that should not be needed
