Steve Merril
NBA
(3% play) DENVER +2 (vs. Memphis) - 9:05 pm ET #706
Memphis hits the road after playing six consecutive home games; the Grizzlies went 5-1 SU in those games, including a 91-84 win over Denver. Memphis will be playing their first road game in 15 days, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver. That’s not a good thing, especially for a team that has been cozy and comfy at home for the past two weeks. The Grizzlies are also playing with a hobbled point guard; Mike Conley is dealing with a lingering achilles injury that has limited his explosiveness. Conley is a liability on the court, especially on the defensive end against Denver who has two quick guards who can penetrate the lane while looking for easy baskets in transition. In their last meeting, Memphis only won by 7 points at home despite out-shooting the Nuggets 44%-21% from three-point land; they were +12 in points from beyond the arc.
Denver will play the fifth game of their 8-game home stand tonight; the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over their last four games. Denver comes in off a 110-104 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. The Nuggets’ offense struggled mightily in that game as they only shot 42% (35-for-83) from the field. Denver’s problem in that game was rebounding as the Thunder grabbed 52 boards, including 16 offensive rebounds. Denver is 0-13 SU this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight. In the last meeting in Memphis, the Nuggets held a 59-43 rebounding edge, including a 19-11 edge on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies have historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 3-26 SU their last 29 visits to the Mile High City. We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.
Play NUGGETS (+) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) CALIFORNIA -7 (vs. Arizona State) - 9:00 pm ET (FS1) #748
Arizona State surprised many by opening the season with a 10-3 SU record. Since their hot start, the Sun Devils are just 1-4 during their last five games. Arizona State is simply in terrible current form, and that has coincided with the step-up in class. The Sun Devils are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including 0-2 on the road in conference play. All three of those losses have come by 7 points or more with their average loss coming by -10.3 points per game. Arizona State’s defense has been terrible away from home all season; the Sun Devils are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land. Over their last five games, their defense has been even worse while allowing 82.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 46.9% shooting from three-point land.
California returns home off three straight road losses, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game. The Golden Bears are a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they own an incredible +18.1 point differential this season. California is averaging 78.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season. California did lose Tyrone Wallace to a hand injury, but he was playing out of position at point guard when he’s a natural wing player. Wallace’s absence will open up the California offense because they’ll be led by true point guard, Sam Singer. California is the better team and they are desperate for win, so we’ll lay the points with the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.
Play CALIFORNIA (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OREGON -5 (vs. USC) - 9:00 pm ET (PAC12) #754
USC has shocked the Pac-12 Conference so far this season. The Trojans come into this game at Oregon with a 15-3 SU record, including a 4-1 mark in conference play. USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac-12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience. But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a veteran Oregon team is an extremely difficult challenge. USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for just the third time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their two previous times. And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ and Washington. The Trojans’ defense comes into this game in poor current form as well; they’ve allowed 81 points per game over their last five games.
Oregon returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 91-87 loss at Colorado. The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they own a terrific +13.9 point differential this season. Oregon is averaging 78.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field at home this season. The Ducks’ defense has also been fantastic at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land. Oregon is a perfect 3-0 when playing off a loss this season, winning those games by an average of +12.7 points per game. Oregon is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.
Play OREGON (-) as a 3% play.
NBA
(3% play) DENVER +2 (vs. Memphis) - 9:05 pm ET #706
Memphis hits the road after playing six consecutive home games; the Grizzlies went 5-1 SU in those games, including a 91-84 win over Denver. Memphis will be playing their first road game in 15 days, and they will be doing so in the thin air and altitude of Denver. That’s not a good thing, especially for a team that has been cozy and comfy at home for the past two weeks. The Grizzlies are also playing with a hobbled point guard; Mike Conley is dealing with a lingering achilles injury that has limited his explosiveness. Conley is a liability on the court, especially on the defensive end against Denver who has two quick guards who can penetrate the lane while looking for easy baskets in transition. In their last meeting, Memphis only won by 7 points at home despite out-shooting the Nuggets 44%-21% from three-point land; they were +12 in points from beyond the arc.
Denver will play the fifth game of their 8-game home stand tonight; the Nuggets have alternated wins and losses over their last four games. Denver comes in off a 110-104 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night. The Nuggets’ offense struggled mightily in that game as they only shot 42% (35-for-83) from the field. Denver’s problem in that game was rebounding as the Thunder grabbed 52 boards, including 16 offensive rebounds. Denver is 0-13 SU this season when getting out-rebounded, but the Nuggets should dominate the glass tonight. In the last meeting in Memphis, the Nuggets held a 59-43 rebounding edge, including a 19-11 edge on the offensive glass. The Grizzlies have historically struggled in Denver; Memphis is 3-26 SU their last 29 visits to the Mile High City. We’ll take the points with Denver in this game on Thursday night.
Play NUGGETS (+) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) CALIFORNIA -7 (vs. Arizona State) - 9:00 pm ET (FS1) #748
Arizona State surprised many by opening the season with a 10-3 SU record. Since their hot start, the Sun Devils are just 1-4 during their last five games. Arizona State is simply in terrible current form, and that has coincided with the step-up in class. The Sun Devils are just 1-3 in their last four road games, including 0-2 on the road in conference play. All three of those losses have come by 7 points or more with their average loss coming by -10.3 points per game. Arizona State’s defense has been terrible away from home all season; the Sun Devils are giving up 72.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting from the field and 40.4% shooting from three-point land. Over their last five games, their defense has been even worse while allowing 82.4 points per game on 50.2% shooting from the field and 46.9% shooting from three-point land.
California returns home off three straight road losses, so they’ll be ready for a peak performance in this game. The Golden Bears are a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they own an incredible +18.1 point differential this season. California is averaging 78.5 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field and 34.5% shooting from three-point land at home this season. California did lose Tyrone Wallace to a hand injury, but he was playing out of position at point guard when he’s a natural wing player. Wallace’s absence will open up the California offense because they’ll be led by true point guard, Sam Singer. California is the better team and they are desperate for win, so we’ll lay the points with the Golden Bears in this game on Thursday night.
Play CALIFORNIA (-) as a 3% play.
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(3% play) OREGON -5 (vs. USC) - 9:00 pm ET (PAC12) #754
USC has shocked the Pac-12 Conference so far this season. The Trojans come into this game at Oregon with a 15-3 SU record, including a 4-1 mark in conference play. USC was picked to finish tenth in the Pac-12 over the summer because the team is loaded with youth and inexperience. But the Trojans have overachieved thus far, and tonight’s game against a veteran Oregon team is an extremely difficult challenge. USC will be playing on a back-to-back road set for just the third time this season; they lost the second game of back-to-backs their two previous times. And those games came against much lesser competition like Monmouth-NJ and Washington. The Trojans’ defense comes into this game in poor current form as well; they’ve allowed 81 points per game over their last five games.
Oregon returns home off back-to-back road games with their last being a 91-87 loss at Colorado. The Ducks are a perfect 11-0 SU at home where they own a terrific +13.9 point differential this season. Oregon is averaging 78.4 points per game on 46.2% shooting from the field at home this season. The Ducks’ defense has also been fantastic at home where they are holding opponents to just 64.5 points per game on 40.4% shooting from the field and 30% shooting from three-point land. Oregon is a perfect 3-0 when playing off a loss this season, winning those games by an average of +12.7 points per game. Oregon is simply the better team, so we’ll lay the points with the Ducks in this game on Thursday night.
Play OREGON (-) as a 3% play.
Who's got Demarco? He's pumping st. Mary's-Gonzo and he's fallen on his face all 3 times this week with chalk. Can't imagine him on a Dog as it's a 2 in 100 situation but still need confirmation that Al will 'bless' St. Mary's with their first Home Loss this year
Ask and you shall receive.
[h=3]Al DeMarco - GM[/h][h=4]THURSDAY[/h]5 DIME play on Gonzaga at St. Mary's. The Zags are +5 as of Noon Pacific.
p.s. I was already on St. Mary's anyway. Bol..
