jeff benton
Jeff Benton Thursday's College Hoops Action
10 Dime college basketball selection on PORTLAND minus the points at San Franciaco. The Pilots are ranging from a 2½- to 3-point road favorite both here in Vegas and offshore. When playing small road favlorites in college basketball, it’s imperative that you shop around and get the best value avallable. There’s no need to lay the extra half-point here if you don’t have to.
Portland
Portland has delivered a very predictable season to this point. Match up the Pilots against strong opposition and the results are pretty ugly: 13-point loss at Gonzaga, 22-point loss at Washington, 16-point loss at Washington State, 31-point loss at Kentucky. But when Portland has been allowed to play the role of bully, it has come through strong, going 14-0 against lesser foes. That includes 10 wins of nine points or more.
Well, it goes witaout saying that San Francisco falls into the “lesser foe” category – certainly, the Dons aren’t in the same league as the Gonzagas, Washingtons, Washington States and Kentuckys of the world. Although it has won four of its last five (including three double-digit wins), San Francisco is still just 8-10 on the season. Its last four victims were Santa Clara and San Diego (two conference opponents that are a combined 13-24 this season), plus Dominican and Hampton. The Dons have also taken down such powerhouses as Seattle, Holy Names (what?) and Montana (in overtime at home).
San Francisco has lost four straight games to Portland by scores of 78-60, 72-67, 74-58 and 70-59. And while it’s true the Dogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games, they also calshed in just one of those four contests against Portland (additionally, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine).
Throw in the fact that A) the chalk is 14-3-1 ATS in Portland’s 18 lined games this season and B) the Pilots (73.3 percent) are the better free-throw sholting team than San Francisco (65 percent), and getting the superior all-around team at this cheap price (even on the road) is a bargain we cannot pass up.