Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Thursday
Date/Time: Thursday September 24 / 7:45PM EST (ESPN)
Sport/Type: CFB / Side
Game: Mississippi Rebels @ South Carolina Gamecocks
Ratings: Selections Rated 1* to 6* with 6* as highest rated play
Graded Selection: 3* South Carolina Gamecocks +4
Analysis:
Columbia South Carolina will be the site of ESPN’s featured College Football Thursday Game of the Week with the South Carolina Gamecocks hosting SEC rival Mississippi Rebels. Ole Miss enters tonight’s contest 2-0 SU and 1-0 ATS while the Gamecocks are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS to start the season.
The Rebels rolled over Memphis in their season-opener, and after a week off, they returned to the field last weekend to post a 52-6 victory over Southeastern Louisiana. With both wins for Ole Miss coming against sub-par competition this will be their first true test of the season.
Ole Miss is averaging 48.5 points per game and holding their opponents to a mere 10.0 points per game and a total of 293.0 yards of offense. This all coming against inferior opponents and tonight’s challenge should prove to be much tougher. Not only are the Gamecocks more talented than either of their pervious opponents this is their first SEC contest of the season while the Gamecocks have already faced Georgia on the road and lost a close one to the Dawgs 41 to 37 between the hedges.
The strength of this Gamecocks team is their defense which is yielding 20.0 points per game and only 249.3 yards of offense. They are extremely strong against the run allowing a mere 87.3 yards per game on 2.8 yards per rushing attempt. Their pass “D” should not be overlooked they are only allowing 162.0 yards passing and 5.6 yards per catch. They have also been making big plays on the defensive side of the ball with ten sacks and seven turnovers in three outings this season.
Ole Miss is coming off a win versus SE Louisiana last week but in that game they allowed them to rack up 302 yards of total offense although they only gave up 6 points tonight’s opponent will be more capable of putting points on the board using a balanced attack.
Through three games, South Carolina has averaged scoring 27.3 points per game while gaining 399.7 total yards. USC QB Stephen Garcia has completed 62.7 percent of his passes for 683 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. With running backs Jarvis Giles and Brian Maddox carrying the load they hope to establish their rushing attack against Ole Miss tonight. When they go to the air Garcia will be looking for Weslye Saunders who is tops among receivers with 13 catches and Tori Gurley who leads the way with 180 receiving yards.
These teams do not meet every season but they did meet last year in Oxford and Ole Miss was coming off their huge upset of the Florida Gators in the Swamp the previous week and South Carolina pulled off the upset 31 to 24 as a two-point road underdog. In fact the underdog has cashed the last three meetings between the two clubs. Ole Miss is 3-0 ATS on the road in this series but that is where the good news ends for them. The Rebels have lost their SEC opener SU the last five seasons and they are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 SEC openers. Mississippi is 1-11-2 ATS in their last 14 games when installed as a favorite of three points or fewer.
A check of the database gives us four powerful systems that are active for tonight’s contest with two play ON and two play AGAINST systems. Play AGAINST a non-Saturday road team with less than 11 days rest off a non-conference game against a Sun Belt Conference or 1-AA team. These road teams have posted a record of 1-14 ATS failing to cover the number by 11.4 points per game since 2005. In Games 3-11, play AGAINST a team with less than 5 days rest off 2 games with 9+ days rest each vs. an opponent not off a SU loss of 13+ points. These teams are 0-12 ATS and average losing to the spread by 12.2 points per game. Play ON a non-Saturday home underdog off a SU win of 19+ points vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win. These home underdogs are 11-0 ATS and average covering the spread by a whopping 15.8 points per game. Play ON a home team with less than 13 days rest off a home game against Florida Atlantic. These home teams are 11-0 ATS and average covering the spread by a remarkable 16.5 points per game.
Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Gamecocks win by 1.4 points in tonight’s contest. The Math Model has Ole Miss with a 2.0 point advantage but with our PPR (Player Performance Ratings) Index that number falls to 1.1 points for Ole Miss so the South Carolina Gamecocks should not only cover the spread they could in fact upset the #5 ranked team in the country in Columbia on Thursday night.
Take the points with the “ole ball coach” as his Gamecocks surprise the Ole Miss Rebels and end their current winning streak of 8 straight which is the most for the Rebs since 1972 and it ends tonight.
Graded Selection: 3* South Carolina Gamecocks 28 Mississippi Rebels 27