Freddy Wills
The Bottom Line:
Take Yankees -1.5 +100 4-DIME POD
I'm loving this play and I'm looking forward to a rebound from last nights POD loss we have gone into a little bit of a drought but are still 13-5 in our last 18 POD's. This will be an interesting series and if the Red Sox don't show up it could be them missing the playoffs because I have to tell you the Rays have really impressed me.
Yankees have lost 9 straight and everyone gets a little excited over that. Tonight I do not see them losing 10 straight with Joba on the mound against Smoltz who has struggled in 7 starts this year. Note that in the 9 straight losses 7 of them have come in Boston so the Yankees will look forward to hosting the Red Sox here this weekend. Also 5 of the 9 losses came in the hands of the Red Sox aces Lester and Becket. John Smoltz will go for the Red Sox tonight and he has a 1-2 record with a 9.18 ERA over his last three starts giving up a whopping 6 HR. That is not a good stat considering where the Yankees are with hitting HR and the ball park they are playing in. I think Smoltz who has not faced the Yankees since 2006 will struggle here while his counterpart is learning how to pitch at Yankee stadium.
Joba has really turned the corner this year and it is unfortunate that he has an inning limit on his right arm. I could go on and on about my frustrations with how they baby players these days, but that's for another forum. Joba's last 2 home starts he's gone 13.2IP gave up 5H 6BB 2ER and 14K's. He has been very impressive and he does not have to go deep into the game the way the Yankees bullpen has been pitching. He should be a bit relieved knowing he won't have to face Jason Bay (hamstring) who is out of the lineup tonight. This is a huge loss for the Sox as he is 4-7 vs. Joba. Chamberlin is coming off a 12 strikeout performance against the Red Sox in May although he got the loss it just goes to show you how dominating he can be even with the pressure on as it is always vs. Boston. The Yankees are 14-3 in Joba's last 17 home starts as a favorite. 70% of the Red Sox road losses including 7 in a row have come by more than 1 run!
The Bottom Line:
Take Yankees -1.5 +100 4-DIME POD
I'm loving this play and I'm looking forward to a rebound from last nights POD loss we have gone into a little bit of a drought but are still 13-5 in our last 18 POD's. This will be an interesting series and if the Red Sox don't show up it could be them missing the playoffs because I have to tell you the Rays have really impressed me.
Yankees have lost 9 straight and everyone gets a little excited over that. Tonight I do not see them losing 10 straight with Joba on the mound against Smoltz who has struggled in 7 starts this year. Note that in the 9 straight losses 7 of them have come in Boston so the Yankees will look forward to hosting the Red Sox here this weekend. Also 5 of the 9 losses came in the hands of the Red Sox aces Lester and Becket. John Smoltz will go for the Red Sox tonight and he has a 1-2 record with a 9.18 ERA over his last three starts giving up a whopping 6 HR. That is not a good stat considering where the Yankees are with hitting HR and the ball park they are playing in. I think Smoltz who has not faced the Yankees since 2006 will struggle here while his counterpart is learning how to pitch at Yankee stadium.
Joba has really turned the corner this year and it is unfortunate that he has an inning limit on his right arm. I could go on and on about my frustrations with how they baby players these days, but that's for another forum. Joba's last 2 home starts he's gone 13.2IP gave up 5H 6BB 2ER and 14K's. He has been very impressive and he does not have to go deep into the game the way the Yankees bullpen has been pitching. He should be a bit relieved knowing he won't have to face Jason Bay (hamstring) who is out of the lineup tonight. This is a huge loss for the Sox as he is 4-7 vs. Joba. Chamberlin is coming off a 12 strikeout performance against the Red Sox in May although he got the loss it just goes to show you how dominating he can be even with the pressure on as it is always vs. Boston. The Yankees are 14-3 in Joba's last 17 home starts as a favorite. 70% of the Red Sox road losses including 7 in a row have come by more than 1 run!
Stephen Nover
D'backs -120
I'll ride the Diamondbacks here in a case of two teams going in opposite directions.
Arizona has won six of its last seven and 18 of its last 28. The Pirates have dropped four in a row. They have lost four straight to Arizona, too, by the ghastly margin of 26-3.
If you discount an 11-run performance against the Nationals and Craig Stammen, the Pirates are averaging 1.9 runs in their last 10 games. This isn't hard to believe when you look at their infield, which consists of Andy LaRoche, Ronny Cedeno, Ramon Vasquez and Steve Pearce.
Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer dominated the Pirates when he faced them last Sunday. He held Pittsburgh to five hits and struck out eight in seven innings during an easy 9-0 victory. Scherzer is a rising star. He has a 3.17 ERA on the road.
Kevin Hart makes his first start for Pittsburgh. He's a converted reliever who pitched well for the Cubs in four starts going 3-1 with a 2.86. But he did walk 13 in these four starts spanning 22 innings. Hart is going to find things much more difficult playing for the Pirates.
D'backs -120
I'll ride the Diamondbacks here in a case of two teams going in opposite directions.
Arizona has won six of its last seven and 18 of its last 28. The Pirates have dropped four in a row. They have lost four straight to Arizona, too, by the ghastly margin of 26-3.
If you discount an 11-run performance against the Nationals and Craig Stammen, the Pirates are averaging 1.9 runs in their last 10 games. This isn't hard to believe when you look at their infield, which consists of Andy LaRoche, Ronny Cedeno, Ramon Vasquez and Steve Pearce.
Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer dominated the Pirates when he faced them last Sunday. He held Pittsburgh to five hits and struck out eight in seven innings during an easy 9-0 victory. Scherzer is a rising star. He has a 3.17 ERA on the road.
Kevin Hart makes his first start for Pittsburgh. He's a converted reliever who pitched well for the Cubs in four starts going 3-1 with a 2.86. But he did walk 13 in these four starts spanning 22 innings. Hart is going to find things much more difficult playing for the Pirates.
Evan Altemus
Minnesota at Cleveland 12:05pm EST
Selection: CLEVELAND +126
Profile: Minnesota has struggled on the road this season, and this is a great chance to fade them at an underdog price. Nick Blackburn enters this game in poor current form, getting hit hard by the LA Angels twice and Oakland. Cleveland's offense has still been performing despite some of the trades. They hammered Minnesota's pitching staff last night as well. The Twins bullpen is really struggling lately as well, posting an ERA of 7.00 over their last 10 games. Fausto Carmona will be making his second start since coming back to the rotation. He pitched well in his first start, and I expect him to pitch well today also. Take the underdog Indians to hammer Blackburn and the struggling Twins bullpen.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Colorado at Philadelphia 1:05pm EST
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +123
Profile: I want to back Cliff Lee in every one of his first few starts, as I feel he will absolutely dominate National League line-ups. There is a significant difference in the quality of line-ups between the two leagues, evident by the success that C.C. Sabathia had last year when he came over to the Brewers. This price is very high to pay however, which is why the correct selection is the run line. Colorado's Aaron Cook has pitched very well recently, but he has faced some very weak line-ups. Philadelphia's line-up is much better than what he has been used to facing, so I expect the Phillies to score enough runs off of him and the Rockies pen to win this game by two runs or more. Colorado also really struggles against lefties, especially on the road. Philadelphia won easily last night, and I expect them to do the same in this game.
2 UNIT SELECTION
LA Angels at Chicago White Sox 2:05pm EST
Selection: CHICAGO -143
Profile: I feel that momentum is one of the most important things to look at when handicapping baseball. The Angels were coming off of a dominating performance at Minnesota, but they had to take a day off and travel to Chicago. In addition, Minnesota's dome plays very favorably to their style of play. However, the White Sox have been a very good home team this season, especially recently, as they have won several home games against the best teams in the American League. They won the first two games in this series against the Angels as well, and I look for them to continue their win streak in this day game. Chicago has a huge starting pitching advantage with John Danks going against Ervin Santana. Santana has been rocked in several of his starts, and the horrible Angels bullpen could be called upon early if he doesn't go deep into the game. Look for Chicago to continue their good play here and get the win.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Minnesota at Cleveland 12:05pm EST
Selection: CLEVELAND +126
Profile: Minnesota has struggled on the road this season, and this is a great chance to fade them at an underdog price. Nick Blackburn enters this game in poor current form, getting hit hard by the LA Angels twice and Oakland. Cleveland's offense has still been performing despite some of the trades. They hammered Minnesota's pitching staff last night as well. The Twins bullpen is really struggling lately as well, posting an ERA of 7.00 over their last 10 games. Fausto Carmona will be making his second start since coming back to the rotation. He pitched well in his first start, and I expect him to pitch well today also. Take the underdog Indians to hammer Blackburn and the struggling Twins bullpen.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Colorado at Philadelphia 1:05pm EST
Selection: PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +123
Profile: I want to back Cliff Lee in every one of his first few starts, as I feel he will absolutely dominate National League line-ups. There is a significant difference in the quality of line-ups between the two leagues, evident by the success that C.C. Sabathia had last year when he came over to the Brewers. This price is very high to pay however, which is why the correct selection is the run line. Colorado's Aaron Cook has pitched very well recently, but he has faced some very weak line-ups. Philadelphia's line-up is much better than what he has been used to facing, so I expect the Phillies to score enough runs off of him and the Rockies pen to win this game by two runs or more. Colorado also really struggles against lefties, especially on the road. Philadelphia won easily last night, and I expect them to do the same in this game.
2 UNIT SELECTION
LA Angels at Chicago White Sox 2:05pm EST
Selection: CHICAGO -143
Profile: I feel that momentum is one of the most important things to look at when handicapping baseball. The Angels were coming off of a dominating performance at Minnesota, but they had to take a day off and travel to Chicago. In addition, Minnesota's dome plays very favorably to their style of play. However, the White Sox have been a very good home team this season, especially recently, as they have won several home games against the best teams in the American League. They won the first two games in this series against the Angels as well, and I look for them to continue their win streak in this day game. Chicago has a huge starting pitching advantage with John Danks going against Ervin Santana. Santana has been rocked in several of his starts, and the horrible Angels bullpen could be called upon early if he doesn't go deep into the game. Look for Chicago to continue their good play here and get the win.
2 UNIT SELECTION
Street Rosenthal
*200 San Diego Padres -141
I am going with the Padres over the Mets tonight. Here are several nice trends against the Mets. First I have the Mets as 14-31 since 2004 as a dog after a 5+ RUN WIN. I also have the Mets as 5-14 SU since 2008 after a win in which they had fewer team left on base than their opponent as a dog. Take the Padres for the win.
*200 San Diego Padres -141
I am going with the Padres over the Mets tonight. Here are several nice trends against the Mets. First I have the Mets as 14-31 since 2004 as a dog after a 5+ RUN WIN. I also have the Mets as 5-14 SU since 2008 after a win in which they had fewer team left on base than their opponent as a dog. Take the Padres for the win.
Street Rosenthal
*200 Los Angeles Dodgers -130
I am taking the Dodgers for the win over the Braves tonight.. I have numerous trends in favor of a Dodgers win. I have a nice starter trend that says Randy Wolf is 13-1 SU since 2007 season as a Home Favorite and he allowed less than 16 hits in his last start as away starter. I also have Randy Wolf as 10-0 SU since 06-25-2005 as a home favorite and his opponent starter had more than 7 strike outs in his last start. I have the Braves starter Lowe as 3-7 SU as an away dog of less than 130 and his team scored more than 3 runs in their last game. Take the White Sox for the win. I also have the Braves as 6-20 since 2006 as a dog when they won the last two games thier starter started. Finally, I have the Dodgers as 15-2 since September 2008 as a favorite vs a team that has won their last two games. Take the Dodgers for the win.
*200 Los Angeles Dodgers -130
I am taking the Dodgers for the win over the Braves tonight.. I have numerous trends in favor of a Dodgers win. I have a nice starter trend that says Randy Wolf is 13-1 SU since 2007 season as a Home Favorite and he allowed less than 16 hits in his last start as away starter. I also have Randy Wolf as 10-0 SU since 06-25-2005 as a home favorite and his opponent starter had more than 7 strike outs in his last start. I have the Braves starter Lowe as 3-7 SU as an away dog of less than 130 and his team scored more than 3 runs in their last game. Take the White Sox for the win. I also have the Braves as 6-20 since 2006 as a dog when they won the last two games thier starter started. Finally, I have the Dodgers as 15-2 since September 2008 as a favorite vs a team that has won their last two games. Take the Dodgers for the win.
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