Craig Davis
Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
60 Dime ---- INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf as listed pitchers)
10 Dime ---- RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher)
INDIANS (With Lee and Ohlendorf) --- Let me get this straight... we have Cliff Lee facing Ross Ohlendorf and we're only giving -155 or -160 on the money line? I couldn't have asked for a "bettor" day (pun intended). When I first saw this pitching matchup, I thought surely we'd have to go with the run line (because we don't ask our clients to play more than -160 on a selection) as I expected this number to come out around -185 or -190. To get this price is a steal, and just so you know, I WOULD have played this game on the run line... that's how confident I am in Cliff Lee shutting down the Pirates for six or seven innings, maybe more, tonight.
First, let's look at Lee before I get to Ohlendorf. Cliff Lee is a stud; a lefty stud. The guy was absolutely phenomenal last season and despite a slow start to this year, he's back on track to post similar numbers to what we saw in 2008. Please do not, under any circumstances, let his 4-6 record scare you. I'm not one who gets all caught up in wins and losses when it comes to starting pitchers because I don't believe that's a true gauge of his value. You have to look much deeper than W/L record to figure out if a pitcher is a quality player and just had bad run support or if his W/L record really is indicative of the type of player he really is. ERA, WHIP, K:BB ratio, etc. Those numbers, to me, are a much better indicator.
Lee's season ERA is 2.94, but you'd never know it looking at his record. However, a deeper look into his W/L record finds his last three losses weren't really because he pitched poorly, but more a matter of his offense completely falling apart. 6 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Yankees; 8 innings and 1 ER in a 1-0 loss to the Tigers; 7 innings and 3 ERs in a 3-1 loss to the Tigers. That doesn't even count his last outing where he cruised for 7 innings vs. the Cubs, allowing just 3 ERs (1 ER through 6 innings) but watching his bullpen implode in the 8th and 9th and instead of earning a win, he suffered a no decision. That's just not normal baseball and I'm calling for things to turn around for Lee, starting tonight.
The best way for Lee to ensure a win this evening is to go as deep into the game as he possibly can. If you look at his last three wins, Lee has gone 9 innings, 8 innings and 7 innings and his pitch count never rose above 113. In fact, in his 9 inning, complete game win over St. Louis Lee pitched just 93 pitches, striking out 6 and allowing just three hits. With Pittsburgh not being a disciplined team at the plate, I don't expect Lee to go too deep into any count with any hitter. That's going to keep his pitch count down and keep him in the game longer.
As for Ohlendorf, well let me just say he's a trainwreck. Ohlendorf was a career relief pitcher with the Yankees and Pirates over the last two years before Pittsburgh decided to promote him to the rotation in 2009. Since he's become a starter, Ohlendorf's ERA is 4.94 but his record (6-6) is two wins better than Lee's. Part of the reason for Ohlendorf's high ERA is the fact he doesn't quite have the stamina to go deep into games. In fact, just once this year has he thrown more than 97 pitches and he averages less than 6 innings per start. That still doesn't take away from the fact he's allowing at least 3 ERs per contest or the fact he's allowed five or more in 3 of his last 7 starts.
After a 10-6 thrashing of the Indians last night, I can't believe the Pirates have it in them to score more than a few runs tonight. Cleveland should be able to get to Ohlendorf early and often, giving Lee more than enough run support. The Indians are 4-1 in their last five road starts when listed as a favorite of over -150 and 15-5 in Lee's last 20 Interleague starts. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 5-23 in their last 28 (1-8 in their last 9) Interleague games vs. a lefty and 0-5 in their last five games as a dog. This game is over by the 6th or 7th inning as the Indians rout the Pirates 7-2.
RANGERS (With Feldman as listed pitcher) For starters, Texas has taken six of the last seven from Arizona dating back to the 2000 season of Interleague play. On top of that, I just like Scott Feldman and I don't trust Arizona's offense to get on top of his fastball. Yes, I realize Feldman's ERA has crept above 4 for the first time since May 17th when it was 4.04. Two of Feldman's last three starts have been his two worst of the year, allowing four ERs to Toronto and five ERs to San Francisco in his last start. He did, however, shut down the Dodgers for five innings in between those two games, so it's not like he's lost it completely. He's run into a little hard luck... but it's nothing a great performance tonight can't cure. His ERA is still respectable and he's only walked one batter in his last two starts, helping his WHIP to improve while keeping runners off base.
To be honest, I don't care if Jon Garland starts tonight for Arizona or not because I don't think it's going to matter. As long as Dan Haren isn't the starting pitcher (which I know he's not going to be), I feel the Rangers are capable of winning this game. Texas' bats haven't come alive yet in the desert and are way overdue... and I believe tonight is the night we see them light up the Phoenix sky. The Rangers aer 12-3 in their last 15 games vs. a losing team and 4-0 in Feldman's last four starts vs. a team with a losing record. Like I said, I don't care who really throws tonight for Arizona because I'm counting on a Texas win regardless. Play the Rangers as your bonus play of the day.
PAID AND CONFIRMED BY ME[/B] 
CORK BOUGHT AND PAID ENOUGH TODAY MY TURN TO CONTRIBUTE
