Jeff Benton Thursday's action ... 10 Dime: DIAMONDBACKS (over Brewers) ... NOTE: List Scherzer and Suppan as the starting pitchers for both teams. If either does NOT start, this play is VOID!
5 Dime: Blazers-Rockets UNDER the total
Diamondbacks
Neither the DBacks nor the Brewers have been swinging the bats very well in April, but the difference in this matchup is that Arizona gets to face struggling veteran Jeff Suppan, while Milwaukee gets its first-ever look at DBacks fireballer Max Scherzer. And that, in a nutshell, is the MAJOR difference in this contest.
Granted, Scherzer hasn’t exactly been lighting it up so far – he’s 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts and he’s yet to notch a win in 19 career big-league appearances (10 starts) – but there’s a reason he’s one of the most highly-touted hurlers in the bigs right now. He’s got nasty stuff and it’s just a matter of time before he begins to harness it consistently. And there’s no reason to think he can’t start doing just that tonight. After all, check out some of these batting averages in the Brewers’ everyday lineup: .259 (Ricky Weeks), .243 (Prince Fielder), .164 (J.J. Hardy) and .164 (Jason Kendall). Not to mention the fact that Milwaukee is hitting a paltry .231 against right-handers in nine home games this season.
Also, while Scherzer’s ERA isn’t exactly Sandy Koufax-esque, his two worst starts came at home. In his lone road outing, he gave up just one run on three hits in five innings, suffering a tough-luck 2-0 loss at San Francisco. And in his last five road starts since May 10, Scherzer has given up just nine earned runs in 27 innings (3.00 ERA).
Scherzer’s big issue? Arizona has struggled like hell to score runs for him, tallying three runs or fewer in eight of his 10 career starts. However, the DBacks have heated up offensively of late, as they scored 43 runs in their just-completed nine-game homestand, pushing across five runs or more in six of those contests, including yesterday’s 10-0 shutout win over the Cubs. Tonight, the DBacks get to feast on Jeff Suppan, who comes into this game with a 7.32 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, as many walks (12) as strikeouts, and he’s served up four home runs in just 19 2/3 innings (and Arizona loves swinging for the fences).
In his only home start to this point, Suppan gave up five runs on two hits and six walks in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. And last year against Arizona, Suppan allowed eight runs in 12 innings (6.00 ERA). Bottom line: This is as good a spot as any for Scherzer to finally notch that first big-league win, and I say the kid – who has 13 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings – gets it. Back the visiting DBacks.
Blazers-Rockets UNDER the total
For starters, Portland simply can’t score against the Rockets, especially in the Toyota Center in Houston. To wit: In the last three games in this series, Portland has scored 88 (at home), 88 (on the road) and 83 points (on the road). And going back to February 2008, the Blazers have posted the following point totals in five games in Houston: 83, 94, 88, 83 and 88 points.
Meanwhile, Houston hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard itself lately. Since scoring 108 and 103 points in the first two games of this series (both in Portland), the Rockets have come back to post 86, 89 and 77 points in the last three contests. All three of those games – with combined point totals of 169, 177 and 165 – played to the “under,” and six of the last eight meetings between these teams in Texas have gone low.
Furthermore, including this playoff series, the under is 5-0 in Portland’s last five road games and 4-0 in Houston’s last four at home.
Finally, when you consider that both teams are now very familiar with one another after facing off five times in the last 12 days and six times this month, that’s a big advantage to both defenses. And given the stakes in this all-important Game 6, you have to expect both coaches to play conservatively in order to minimize the turnover risk.
Yes, this total is depressed a bit because the last three meetings have stayed under, but despite that, the under is still the smart value play. Look for both squads to be in the 80s (at best) when this one is finished
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5 Dime: Blazers-Rockets UNDER the total
Diamondbacks
Neither the DBacks nor the Brewers have been swinging the bats very well in April, but the difference in this matchup is that Arizona gets to face struggling veteran Jeff Suppan, while Milwaukee gets its first-ever look at DBacks fireballer Max Scherzer. And that, in a nutshell, is the MAJOR difference in this contest.
Granted, Scherzer hasn’t exactly been lighting it up so far – he’s 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three starts and he’s yet to notch a win in 19 career big-league appearances (10 starts) – but there’s a reason he’s one of the most highly-touted hurlers in the bigs right now. He’s got nasty stuff and it’s just a matter of time before he begins to harness it consistently. And there’s no reason to think he can’t start doing just that tonight. After all, check out some of these batting averages in the Brewers’ everyday lineup: .259 (Ricky Weeks), .243 (Prince Fielder), .164 (J.J. Hardy) and .164 (Jason Kendall). Not to mention the fact that Milwaukee is hitting a paltry .231 against right-handers in nine home games this season.
Also, while Scherzer’s ERA isn’t exactly Sandy Koufax-esque, his two worst starts came at home. In his lone road outing, he gave up just one run on three hits in five innings, suffering a tough-luck 2-0 loss at San Francisco. And in his last five road starts since May 10, Scherzer has given up just nine earned runs in 27 innings (3.00 ERA).
Scherzer’s big issue? Arizona has struggled like hell to score runs for him, tallying three runs or fewer in eight of his 10 career starts. However, the DBacks have heated up offensively of late, as they scored 43 runs in their just-completed nine-game homestand, pushing across five runs or more in six of those contests, including yesterday’s 10-0 shutout win over the Cubs. Tonight, the DBacks get to feast on Jeff Suppan, who comes into this game with a 7.32 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, as many walks (12) as strikeouts, and he’s served up four home runs in just 19 2/3 innings (and Arizona loves swinging for the fences).
In his only home start to this point, Suppan gave up five runs on two hits and six walks in just 3 2/3 innings in a loss to the Cubs. And last year against Arizona, Suppan allowed eight runs in 12 innings (6.00 ERA). Bottom line: This is as good a spot as any for Scherzer to finally notch that first big-league win, and I say the kid – who has 13 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings – gets it. Back the visiting DBacks.
Blazers-Rockets UNDER the total
For starters, Portland simply can’t score against the Rockets, especially in the Toyota Center in Houston. To wit: In the last three games in this series, Portland has scored 88 (at home), 88 (on the road) and 83 points (on the road). And going back to February 2008, the Blazers have posted the following point totals in five games in Houston: 83, 94, 88, 83 and 88 points.
Meanwhile, Houston hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard itself lately. Since scoring 108 and 103 points in the first two games of this series (both in Portland), the Rockets have come back to post 86, 89 and 77 points in the last three contests. All three of those games – with combined point totals of 169, 177 and 165 – played to the “under,” and six of the last eight meetings between these teams in Texas have gone low.
Furthermore, including this playoff series, the under is 5-0 in Portland’s last five road games and 4-0 in Houston’s last four at home.
Finally, when you consider that both teams are now very familiar with one another after facing off five times in the last 12 days and six times this month, that’s a big advantage to both defenses. And given the stakes in this all-important Game 6, you have to expect both coaches to play conservatively in order to minimize the turnover risk.
Yes, this total is depressed a bit because the last three meetings have stayed under, but despite that, the under is still the smart value play. Look for both squads to be in the 80s (at best) when this one is finished
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