THE SPORTS ADVISORS
EAST REGION
(at Boston)
(3) Villanova (28-7, 17-14 ATS) vs. (2) Duke (30-6, 17-17-1 ATS)
After struggling to get past upstart American in the first round last Thursday, Villanova pounded sixth-seeded UCLA 89-69 Saturday as a 2½-point chalk, ostensibly playing a home game at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia. The spread-cover snapped a three-game ATS slide, and the Wildcats improved to 5-1 SU in their last six starts (3-3 ATS). Dante Cunningham had 18 points to lead a balanced ‘Nova scoring attack, with six players scoring in double figures.
Duke notched its fifth straight win Saturday, topping seventh-seeded Texas 74-69 in the second round but falling short as a 7½-point chalk. Gerald Henderson led the way with 24 points, and the Blue Devils’ 7-for-14 effort from 3-point range and 21-for-27 performance at the foul line helped overcome the Longhorns’ 50 percent shooting from the floor (25 of 50). During its five-game surge, Duke has outscored opponents by just over nine points per game (74.4-65.2).
These teams have met twice since the 1997-98 season, with Duke winning both contests. The most recent clash came in November 2000, when the Blue Devils won 98-85 at home but Villanova covered as a 19-point pup.
Duke, in its 33rd NCAA Tournament, reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006. Villanova, in its 29th Tournament, has reached the third round for the second straight year, having bowed out in the Sweet 16 last year to eventual national champion Kansas 72-57 as a 12-point underdog.
The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 starts against winning teams and are on further ATS runs of 8-3 after a pointspread win and 5-2 against the ACC, but they also remain on ATS skids of 1-4 as a neutral-site pup and 3-7 in the Tournament. The Blue Devils are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 2-9 in the NCAAs, 2-10 as a Tournament chalk and 2-8-1 against the Big East.
Both of teams topped the total in each of their Tournament games last weekend. Also, the over is on runs of 10-4 for Villanova overall (4-1 last five), 4-1 for Villanova at neutral sites and 4-0 for Duke in non-conference play. However, the under is on runs of 8-2 in the Wildcats’ last 10 non-conference games, 7-2 for the Blue Devils against the Big East and 10-4 for Duke at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(4) Xavier (27-7, 18-12-2 ATS) (1) Pittsburgh (30-4, 16-11-1 ATS)
Top-seeded Pittsburgh got stern tests in both its games last week, fending off East Tennessee State 72-62 in the opener (falling way short as a 21-point chalk), then getting past eighth-seeded Oklahoma State 84-76 as a nine-point favorite Sunday. The Panthers needed 32 points from Sam Young on 12-for-20 shooting (60 percent) against the Cowboys, and though Pitt is 5-1 in its last six starts, it has dropped three straight ATS decisions.
Xavier won and cashed in the first and second round, whipping Portland State 77-59 as a 10-point chalk Friday and beating 12th-seeded Wisconsin 60-49 Sunday laying 2½ points. The Musketeers are now on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge, all at neutral sites, averaging 64 ppg while allowing just 52.5 in that span. They’ve held seven of their last eight opponents under 60 points, including the last four in a row.
These teams haven’t met since November 1998, when Pitt rolled 94-76 as a seven-point road ‘dog.
Pitt has reached the Sweet 16 after getting bounced in the second round last year and is on its sixth consecutive trip to the NCAAs under sixth-year coach Jaime Dixon. But Dixon’s troops have failed to get beyond the third round on their last five attempts. Xavier is aiming to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight year, after going 3-0 SU and ATS last year before falling to UCLA in the regional final.
The Panthers are on pointspread dives of 1-5 in the Big Dance, 1-4-1 as a neutral-floor chalk and 1-4 as a Tournament favorite. On the flip side, the Musketeers are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 5-2 overall, 4-0 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the Tournament, 7-1 as a Tournament pup, 11-4-1 against winning teams, 36-16-1 on neutral courts and 13-4 as a neutral-court ‘dog.
The over is 7-3 in Pitt’s last 10 Tournament tilts (1-1 this year), 7-2 in Xavier’s last nine Tournament starts (0-2 this year) and 6-2 in the Musketeers’ last eight non-conference games. However, the under is on runs for the Panthers of 5-1 at neutral sites and 5-2 outside the Big East, and the under for Xavier is on stretches of 9-2-1 overall (4-0 in the last four games) and 7-0 at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
WEST REGIONAL
(at Phoenix)
(3) Missouri (30-6, 19-10 ATS) vs. (2) Memphis (33-3, 23-12 ATS)
Memphis, which survived a scare against No. 15 seed Cal State-Northridge in an 81-70 first-round as a 20-point favorite, had no such trouble with 10th-seeded Maryland in Saturday’s 89-70 rout as a 10-point chalk. Freshman sensation Tyreke Evans had 19 points in the Tigers’ 26th consecutive SU win, leading five players in double figures as Memphis hit a scorching 58.5 percent from the floor in moving to 5-2 ATS in its last seven starts.
Missouri heads to the Sweet 16 on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll, drumming No. 14 seed Cornell 78-59 as a 12-point first-round chalk, then hanging on late to beat sixth-seeded Marquette 83-79 Sunday as a 2½-point favorite. Leo Lyons had 18 points against the Golden Eagles to lead five players in double digits, as the Tigers blew a 16-point lead before holding on for the win and cover. Mizzou, which shot 48.4 percent and held Marquette to just 38.3 percent, is now 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 starts and its 30 victories are the most ever in school history.
Memphis and Missouri had a home-and-home series earlier this decade, with the host winning and cashing each time. Missouri rolled 93-78 in December 2002 giving 8½ points, and Memphis snuck out a 61-59 win as a 1½-point favorite a year later.
Memphis, which brought the nation’s fourth-ranked defense to its 22nd NCAA Tournament, reached the national championship game last year before falling short to Kansas in overtime. The Tigers have made it to at least the Elite Eight each of the last three years. Meanwhile, Missouri got through to the third round to one-up their last Tournament appearance six years ago, when they bowed out to Marquette in the second round.
Memphis is on several ATS upswings, including 15-5 overall, 6-1 outside Conference USA, 12-3 against winning teams and 4-1 against the Big 12. Meanwhile, Missouri’s current 5-0 ATS run has come entirely on neutral courts, and the Tigers are on further pointspread pushes of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 in the Tournament and 4-1 as an NCAA pup, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-4 against Conference USA foes and 2-5 as a neutral-site ‘dog.
The over is on identical 8-1 tears for both Memphis and Missouri in NCAA Tournament play, but the under for Memphis is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the Big 12 and 13-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Also, Mizzou is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS
(5) Purdue (27-9, 15-17 ATS) vs. (1) Connecticut (29-4, 14-15 ATS)
Purdue stretched its winning streak to five games by getting through the first two rounds in a pair of tight games, besting No. 12 seed Northern Iowa 61-56 as an 8½-point favorite, then squeaking past fourth-seeded Washington 76-74 Saturday as a one-point pup. Center JaJuan Johnson led the way against Washington with 22 points – nine above his season average – and four blocks. The Boilermakers ended a two-game ATS hiccup and cashed for just the fourth time in their last 10 starts.
Connecticut coasted through the first two rounds, pounding Chattanooga 102-47 giving 20 points, then drilling ninth-seeded Texas A&M 92-66 Saturday as a 10½-point chalk. In Saturday’s rout, A.J. Price (27) and Jeff Adrien (23) combined for 50 points as the Huskies shot a sterling 57.9 percent (33 of 57) while holding the Aggies to just 41.3 percent, including 3 of 15 from three-point range (20 percent). Although UConn’s two spread-covers in the tournament ended an 0-3 ATS slide, the Huskies are still just 3-6 ATS in their last nine starts.
Purdue’s win Saturday followed a pair of second-round exits the past two years, including an 85-78 loss to Xavier last year getting 2½ points. The Boilermakers are on their 23rd NCAA trip, but this is their first trip to the Sweet 16 since 2000, when they beat Gonzaga to reach the regional final before losing to Big Ten rival Wisconsin.
Connecticut, in its 29th NCAA Tournament, reached the third round for the first time since 2006 following a pair of first-round exits the past two years. Three years ago, UConn beat Washington in overtime to reach the round of eight, then got stung by Tournament darling George Mason 86-84 in overtime to miss out on the Final Four.
The Boilermakers are on ATS skids of 1-5 after a spread-cover and 2-5 after a SU win, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 12-5-1 catching points, 4-1 as a neutral-site pup and 6-2 as an NCAA underdog.
Prior to last week, the Huskies had dropped seven straight ATS decisions in the Tournament – all from the favorite’s role – and were on an 0-13 ATS freefall in postseason play. Despite those numbers, UConn is on positive ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU win of more than 20 points, 5-1 on neutral courts, 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 5-2 outside the Big East.
The over for Purdue is on a bundle of runs, including 8-3 on neutral floors, 4-1 in the Tournament, 6-1 on Thursday, 8-2 with the Boilermakers as an underdog and 5-1-1 as a Tournament pup. Likewise, the over for UConn is on tears of 6-0 in the Big Dance, 21-7 at neutral sites, 14-3 with the Huskies as a chalk and 6-2 against Big Ten competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (40-31, 29-40-2 ATS) at Portland (44-27, 37-34 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, aiming to bounce back from an upset home loss, play host to the surging Suns at the Rose Garden.
Portland tumbled to Philadelphia 114-108 in overtime Monday night as an eight-point home chalk, halting a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) built up on a five-game road trip. It was a rare home loss for the Blazers, who are now 28-7 at the Rose Garden this season, averaging 102.6 ppg while allowing 94.1 ppg, with both numbers better than their season averages of 98.8 ppg on offense and 95.2 ppg on the defensive end.
Phoenix outran the Nuggets 118-115 Monday night but narrowly missed beating the spread as a 3½-point home favorite, then followed that with Wednesday’s near-identical 118-114 victory over the Jazz, this time covering as a 3½-point home chalk. The Suns have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), putting up a whopping 125 ppg while allowing 111.
Portland won the last meeting between these rivals, a 124-119 home decision as a four-point favorite, which ended Phoenix’s nine-game winning streak against the Blazers (7-2 ATS). Still, the Suns are on ATS rolls in this series of 23-9-1 overall and 5-1 in Portland, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Blazers are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 against Pacific Division foes and 4-1 following a two-day break. The Suns are also on a 5-1 ATS run, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 0-8 on Thursday, 9-20 against teams with a winning record and 2-6 on the road against teams with a winning home mark.
The under is 4-0 in Portland’s last four starts against winning teams and 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry. However, the over is 6-2-1 in the Blazers’ last nine home starts, and the over for Phoenix is on stretches of 6-2 on the road, 4-0 when playing on no rest and 4-0 on Thursday. Finally, the total has gone high in seven of the last 10 clashes between these two teams at the Rose Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and OVER
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EAST REGION
(at Boston)
(3) Villanova (28-7, 17-14 ATS) vs. (2) Duke (30-6, 17-17-1 ATS)
After struggling to get past upstart American in the first round last Thursday, Villanova pounded sixth-seeded UCLA 89-69 Saturday as a 2½-point chalk, ostensibly playing a home game at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia. The spread-cover snapped a three-game ATS slide, and the Wildcats improved to 5-1 SU in their last six starts (3-3 ATS). Dante Cunningham had 18 points to lead a balanced ‘Nova scoring attack, with six players scoring in double figures.
Duke notched its fifth straight win Saturday, topping seventh-seeded Texas 74-69 in the second round but falling short as a 7½-point chalk. Gerald Henderson led the way with 24 points, and the Blue Devils’ 7-for-14 effort from 3-point range and 21-for-27 performance at the foul line helped overcome the Longhorns’ 50 percent shooting from the floor (25 of 50). During its five-game surge, Duke has outscored opponents by just over nine points per game (74.4-65.2).
These teams have met twice since the 1997-98 season, with Duke winning both contests. The most recent clash came in November 2000, when the Blue Devils won 98-85 at home but Villanova covered as a 19-point pup.
Duke, in its 33rd NCAA Tournament, reached the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006. Villanova, in its 29th Tournament, has reached the third round for the second straight year, having bowed out in the Sweet 16 last year to eventual national champion Kansas 72-57 as a 12-point underdog.
The Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 starts against winning teams and are on further ATS runs of 8-3 after a pointspread win and 5-2 against the ACC, but they also remain on ATS skids of 1-4 as a neutral-site pup and 3-7 in the Tournament. The Blue Devils are on nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 2-9 in the NCAAs, 2-10 as a Tournament chalk and 2-8-1 against the Big East.
Both of teams topped the total in each of their Tournament games last weekend. Also, the over is on runs of 10-4 for Villanova overall (4-1 last five), 4-1 for Villanova at neutral sites and 4-0 for Duke in non-conference play. However, the under is on runs of 8-2 in the Wildcats’ last 10 non-conference games, 7-2 for the Blue Devils against the Big East and 10-4 for Duke at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
(4) Xavier (27-7, 18-12-2 ATS) (1) Pittsburgh (30-4, 16-11-1 ATS)
Top-seeded Pittsburgh got stern tests in both its games last week, fending off East Tennessee State 72-62 in the opener (falling way short as a 21-point chalk), then getting past eighth-seeded Oklahoma State 84-76 as a nine-point favorite Sunday. The Panthers needed 32 points from Sam Young on 12-for-20 shooting (60 percent) against the Cowboys, and though Pitt is 5-1 in its last six starts, it has dropped three straight ATS decisions.
Xavier won and cashed in the first and second round, whipping Portland State 77-59 as a 10-point chalk Friday and beating 12th-seeded Wisconsin 60-49 Sunday laying 2½ points. The Musketeers are now on a 3-1 SU and ATS surge, all at neutral sites, averaging 64 ppg while allowing just 52.5 in that span. They’ve held seven of their last eight opponents under 60 points, including the last four in a row.
These teams haven’t met since November 1998, when Pitt rolled 94-76 as a seven-point road ‘dog.
Pitt has reached the Sweet 16 after getting bounced in the second round last year and is on its sixth consecutive trip to the NCAAs under sixth-year coach Jaime Dixon. But Dixon’s troops have failed to get beyond the third round on their last five attempts. Xavier is aiming to reach the Elite Eight for the second straight year, after going 3-0 SU and ATS last year before falling to UCLA in the regional final.
The Panthers are on pointspread dives of 1-5 in the Big Dance, 1-4-1 as a neutral-floor chalk and 1-4 as a Tournament favorite. On the flip side, the Musketeers are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 5-2 overall, 4-0 in non-conference play, 6-1 in the Tournament, 7-1 as a Tournament pup, 11-4-1 against winning teams, 36-16-1 on neutral courts and 13-4 as a neutral-court ‘dog.
The over is 7-3 in Pitt’s last 10 Tournament tilts (1-1 this year), 7-2 in Xavier’s last nine Tournament starts (0-2 this year) and 6-2 in the Musketeers’ last eight non-conference games. However, the under is on runs for the Panthers of 5-1 at neutral sites and 5-2 outside the Big East, and the under for Xavier is on stretches of 9-2-1 overall (4-0 in the last four games) and 7-0 at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
WEST REGIONAL
(at Phoenix)
(3) Missouri (30-6, 19-10 ATS) vs. (2) Memphis (33-3, 23-12 ATS)
Memphis, which survived a scare against No. 15 seed Cal State-Northridge in an 81-70 first-round as a 20-point favorite, had no such trouble with 10th-seeded Maryland in Saturday’s 89-70 rout as a 10-point chalk. Freshman sensation Tyreke Evans had 19 points in the Tigers’ 26th consecutive SU win, leading five players in double figures as Memphis hit a scorching 58.5 percent from the floor in moving to 5-2 ATS in its last seven starts.
Missouri heads to the Sweet 16 on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll, drumming No. 14 seed Cornell 78-59 as a 12-point first-round chalk, then hanging on late to beat sixth-seeded Marquette 83-79 Sunday as a 2½-point favorite. Leo Lyons had 18 points against the Golden Eagles to lead five players in double digits, as the Tigers blew a 16-point lead before holding on for the win and cover. Mizzou, which shot 48.4 percent and held Marquette to just 38.3 percent, is now 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in its last 15 starts and its 30 victories are the most ever in school history.
Memphis and Missouri had a home-and-home series earlier this decade, with the host winning and cashing each time. Missouri rolled 93-78 in December 2002 giving 8½ points, and Memphis snuck out a 61-59 win as a 1½-point favorite a year later.
Memphis, which brought the nation’s fourth-ranked defense to its 22nd NCAA Tournament, reached the national championship game last year before falling short to Kansas in overtime. The Tigers have made it to at least the Elite Eight each of the last three years. Meanwhile, Missouri got through to the third round to one-up their last Tournament appearance six years ago, when they bowed out to Marquette in the second round.
Memphis is on several ATS upswings, including 15-5 overall, 6-1 outside Conference USA, 12-3 against winning teams and 4-1 against the Big 12. Meanwhile, Missouri’s current 5-0 ATS run has come entirely on neutral courts, and the Tigers are on further pointspread pushes of 4-0 against winning teams, 8-2 in the Tournament and 4-1 as an NCAA pup, but they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-4 against Conference USA foes and 2-5 as a neutral-site ‘dog.
The over is on identical 8-1 tears for both Memphis and Missouri in NCAA Tournament play, but the under for Memphis is on streaks of 8-2 overall, 8-1 against the Big 12 and 13-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Also, Mizzou is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 5-1 on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS
(5) Purdue (27-9, 15-17 ATS) vs. (1) Connecticut (29-4, 14-15 ATS)
Purdue stretched its winning streak to five games by getting through the first two rounds in a pair of tight games, besting No. 12 seed Northern Iowa 61-56 as an 8½-point favorite, then squeaking past fourth-seeded Washington 76-74 Saturday as a one-point pup. Center JaJuan Johnson led the way against Washington with 22 points – nine above his season average – and four blocks. The Boilermakers ended a two-game ATS hiccup and cashed for just the fourth time in their last 10 starts.
Connecticut coasted through the first two rounds, pounding Chattanooga 102-47 giving 20 points, then drilling ninth-seeded Texas A&M 92-66 Saturday as a 10½-point chalk. In Saturday’s rout, A.J. Price (27) and Jeff Adrien (23) combined for 50 points as the Huskies shot a sterling 57.9 percent (33 of 57) while holding the Aggies to just 41.3 percent, including 3 of 15 from three-point range (20 percent). Although UConn’s two spread-covers in the tournament ended an 0-3 ATS slide, the Huskies are still just 3-6 ATS in their last nine starts.
Purdue’s win Saturday followed a pair of second-round exits the past two years, including an 85-78 loss to Xavier last year getting 2½ points. The Boilermakers are on their 23rd NCAA trip, but this is their first trip to the Sweet 16 since 2000, when they beat Gonzaga to reach the regional final before losing to Big Ten rival Wisconsin.
Connecticut, in its 29th NCAA Tournament, reached the third round for the first time since 2006 following a pair of first-round exits the past two years. Three years ago, UConn beat Washington in overtime to reach the round of eight, then got stung by Tournament darling George Mason 86-84 in overtime to miss out on the Final Four.
The Boilermakers are on ATS skids of 1-5 after a spread-cover and 2-5 after a SU win, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 12-5-1 catching points, 4-1 as a neutral-site pup and 6-2 as an NCAA underdog.
Prior to last week, the Huskies had dropped seven straight ATS decisions in the Tournament – all from the favorite’s role – and were on an 0-13 ATS freefall in postseason play. Despite those numbers, UConn is on positive ATS runs of 5-0 after a SU win of more than 20 points, 5-1 on neutral courts, 4-1 as a neutral-site chalk and 5-2 outside the Big East.
The over for Purdue is on a bundle of runs, including 8-3 on neutral floors, 4-1 in the Tournament, 6-1 on Thursday, 8-2 with the Boilermakers as an underdog and 5-1-1 as a Tournament pup. Likewise, the over for UConn is on tears of 6-0 in the Big Dance, 21-7 at neutral sites, 14-3 with the Huskies as a chalk and 6-2 against Big Ten competition.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (40-31, 29-40-2 ATS) at Portland (44-27, 37-34 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, aiming to bounce back from an upset home loss, play host to the surging Suns at the Rose Garden.
Portland tumbled to Philadelphia 114-108 in overtime Monday night as an eight-point home chalk, halting a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) built up on a five-game road trip. It was a rare home loss for the Blazers, who are now 28-7 at the Rose Garden this season, averaging 102.6 ppg while allowing 94.1 ppg, with both numbers better than their season averages of 98.8 ppg on offense and 95.2 ppg on the defensive end.
Phoenix outran the Nuggets 118-115 Monday night but narrowly missed beating the spread as a 3½-point home favorite, then followed that with Wednesday’s near-identical 118-114 victory over the Jazz, this time covering as a 3½-point home chalk. The Suns have won six in a row (5-1 ATS), putting up a whopping 125 ppg while allowing 111.
Portland won the last meeting between these rivals, a 124-119 home decision as a four-point favorite, which ended Phoenix’s nine-game winning streak against the Blazers (7-2 ATS). Still, the Suns are on ATS rolls in this series of 23-9-1 overall and 5-1 in Portland, and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes.
The Blazers are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 against Pacific Division foes and 4-1 following a two-day break. The Suns are also on a 5-1 ATS run, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 0-8 on Thursday, 9-20 against teams with a winning record and 2-6 on the road against teams with a winning home mark.
The under is 4-0 in Portland’s last four starts against winning teams and 4-1 in the last five meetings in this rivalry. However, the over is 6-2-1 in the Blazers’ last nine home starts, and the over for Phoenix is on stretches of 6-2 on the road, 4-0 when playing on no rest and 4-0 on Thursday. Finally, the total has gone high in seven of the last 10 clashes between these two teams at the Rose Garden.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND and OVER
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