Winning Angle Plays for Thursday
NCAA
Play Florida (-9.5) over Arkansas* (Top NCAA Play)
Arkansas has lost 14 of the last 16 conference games and they have also lost 12 of the last 15 games as an underdog. Arkansas has lost 7 of the last 9 games coming off an UNDER the total and they are allowing an average of 82 points a game on defense over the last 5 games.
Play Kansas (-9) over Baylor* (Bonus NCAA Play)
Kansas has won 14 of the last 16 games and they have also won 11 of the last 12 games vs. Baylor. Kansas has covered the spread in 13 of the last 15 games vs. conference opponents and they are averaging over 77 points a game this season.
Play Utah (-10) over TCU* (Top NCAA Play)
TCU has lost 10 of the last 11 games and they have also lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread after scoring 60 points or less. TCU has lost 21 of the last 29 games against the spread coming off a loss by 10 points or more and they are only averaging 61 points a game on the road this season.
NBA Hoops
Play Phoenix (+3.5) over Cleveland* (NBA Top Play)
NHL
Play Boston (-250) over Ottawa* (NHL Bonus Play)
NCAA
Play Florida (-9.5) over Arkansas* (Top NCAA Play)
Arkansas has lost 14 of the last 16 conference games and they have also lost 12 of the last 15 games as an underdog. Arkansas has lost 7 of the last 9 games coming off an UNDER the total and they are allowing an average of 82 points a game on defense over the last 5 games.
Play Kansas (-9) over Baylor* (Bonus NCAA Play)
Kansas has won 14 of the last 16 games and they have also won 11 of the last 12 games vs. Baylor. Kansas has covered the spread in 13 of the last 15 games vs. conference opponents and they are averaging over 77 points a game this season.
Play Utah (-10) over TCU* (Top NCAA Play)
TCU has lost 10 of the last 11 games and they have also lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread after scoring 60 points or less. TCU has lost 21 of the last 29 games against the spread coming off a loss by 10 points or more and they are only averaging 61 points a game on the road this season.
NBA Hoops
Play Phoenix (+3.5) over Cleveland* (NBA Top Play)
NHL
Play Boston (-250) over Ottawa* (NHL Bonus Play)
Steven Budin-CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME
VILLANOVA
This price is -2 to -2 1/2.
If you've got -2, buy down the 1/2 point to -1 1/2 so you get the win should Villanova win by two.
If you have Villanova at -2 1/2, even after shopping around, go ahead and buy down to -2 so you get the push should Villanova win by two.
At over 1700 dimes of profit over the past two years, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself
BOUGHT, PAID, AND CONFIRMED
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME
VILLANOVA
This price is -2 to -2 1/2.
If you've got -2, buy down the 1/2 point to -1 1/2 so you get the win should Villanova win by two.
If you have Villanova at -2 1/2, even after shopping around, go ahead and buy down to -2 so you get the push should Villanova win by two.
At over 1700 dimes of profit over the past two years, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself
BOUGHT, PAID, AND CONFIRMED
Vegas Sports Experts
The VSE Thursday Hoops Power Plays are:
VSE Power Plays
10* Take UAB (-9) over Southern Mississippi (NCAA Power Play)
Southern Mississippi
• 2-9 ATS as an underdog this season
• 4-12 ATS vs. conference opponents this season
• 3-12 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week
10* Take Phoenix (+3.5) over Cleveland (NBA Power Play)
Phoenix
• 10-2 SU vs. Cleveland at home since 1996
• 7-1 SU after having lost 5 or 6 of the last 7 games
• Averaging 110 ppg at home this season
Bonus Pays
5* Take Virginia Tech (+3) over Miami (NCAA)
5* Take NC State (+2) over Maryland (NCAA)
5* Take New Jersey (-320) over Phoenix (NHL)
The VSE Thursday Hoops Power Plays are:
VSE Power Plays
10* Take UAB (-9) over Southern Mississippi (NCAA Power Play)
Southern Mississippi
• 2-9 ATS as an underdog this season
• 4-12 ATS vs. conference opponents this season
• 3-12 ATS when playing their 2nd game in a week
10* Take Phoenix (+3.5) over Cleveland (NBA Power Play)
Phoenix
• 10-2 SU vs. Cleveland at home since 1996
• 7-1 SU after having lost 5 or 6 of the last 7 games
• Averaging 110 ppg at home this season
Bonus Pays
5* Take Virginia Tech (+3) over Miami (NCAA)
5* Take NC State (+2) over Maryland (NCAA)
5* Take New Jersey (-320) over Phoenix (NHL)
Matt Rivers
200,000* UNREAL BARKING DOG!
Your winner here is on Georgia Tech!
Yes Clemson won and covered both meetings this season but it wasn't nearly as easy as the final score may indicate and to get Tech here plus this gaudy number at the Georgia Dome, making this thing close to a home game, is a total coup!
In the series this season Clemson won by 14 at home, covering by 1 1/2 points and then won by 8 at the Thrillerdome a few weeks ago covering by literally 1/2 point. In both games it was the Jackets who looked the better in the first halves. In that last game Tech even built a 15 point lead about 10 minutes in before flailing later on. I am telling you that this is not that far from an even game in this situation and to get around double digits is just wrong!
Paul Hewitt's team has not quit. Yes the season has been horrific as they have lost a ton of close games and I mean a ton. The last defeat in Chestnut Hill against Tyrese Rice and Boston College about summed up the season. The Jackets played tough, had the lead late and failed by a slimmer than slim (one point) margin at the very end. I am not at all saying that Georgia Tech is a good team as 2-14 in the ACC and 11-18 overall is rather poor for sure but there is a decent upside with Hewitt's crew and I just do not see them getting blasted here at all.
Clemson is a solid team that has a high ceiling for sure with talented talented players like Rivers, Oglesby, Booker and others but the Tigers are not the same team away from LittleJohn Coliseum. We have seen it over and over and over again how Oliver Purnell's team rises up at home and blows out Duke and others but just sometimes craps in its collective pants away from home. This is not considered a true road game but with the game being a mile away from the Georgia Tech campus it certainly is not a comfortable setting for Clemson.
Lawal, Clinch, Peacock, Aminu, Shumpert and the rest of this Tech team has had issues shooting free throws but it's not like this Clemson team is any good at that themselves as they are known to throw a brick or two from the charity stripe.
Clemson may win and advance but to be honest with you there is a great chance that they may not. That about sums up why I love the dog Jackets so much here!
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BOUGHT, PAID, AND CONFIRMED
200,000* UNREAL BARKING DOG!
Your winner here is on Georgia Tech!
Yes Clemson won and covered both meetings this season but it wasn't nearly as easy as the final score may indicate and to get Tech here plus this gaudy number at the Georgia Dome, making this thing close to a home game, is a total coup!
In the series this season Clemson won by 14 at home, covering by 1 1/2 points and then won by 8 at the Thrillerdome a few weeks ago covering by literally 1/2 point. In both games it was the Jackets who looked the better in the first halves. In that last game Tech even built a 15 point lead about 10 minutes in before flailing later on. I am telling you that this is not that far from an even game in this situation and to get around double digits is just wrong!
Paul Hewitt's team has not quit. Yes the season has been horrific as they have lost a ton of close games and I mean a ton. The last defeat in Chestnut Hill against Tyrese Rice and Boston College about summed up the season. The Jackets played tough, had the lead late and failed by a slimmer than slim (one point) margin at the very end. I am not at all saying that Georgia Tech is a good team as 2-14 in the ACC and 11-18 overall is rather poor for sure but there is a decent upside with Hewitt's crew and I just do not see them getting blasted here at all.
Clemson is a solid team that has a high ceiling for sure with talented talented players like Rivers, Oglesby, Booker and others but the Tigers are not the same team away from LittleJohn Coliseum. We have seen it over and over and over again how Oliver Purnell's team rises up at home and blows out Duke and others but just sometimes craps in its collective pants away from home. This is not considered a true road game but with the game being a mile away from the Georgia Tech campus it certainly is not a comfortable setting for Clemson.
Lawal, Clinch, Peacock, Aminu, Shumpert and the rest of this Tech team has had issues shooting free throws but it's not like this Clemson team is any good at that themselves as they are known to throw a brick or two from the charity stripe.
Clemson may win and advance but to be honest with you there is a great chance that they may not. That about sums up why I love the dog Jackets so much here!
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BOUGHT, PAID, AND CONFIRMED
Jimmy The Moose NHL 03/12/09
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Mar 12 2009 7:30PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Reason: Two team's battling near the bottom of the standings meet-up in Toronto tonight. Tampa played and lost in OT last night and they'll take on a Leafs team that they's had success against recently. The Lightning have won 3 straight over Toronto and 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Maple Leafs are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. In their last 6 games vs. a team from the Southeast the Leafs are 1-5. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning +.
Game: Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Mar 12 2009 7:30PM
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Reason: Two team's battling near the bottom of the standings meet-up in Toronto tonight. Tampa played and lost in OT last night and they'll take on a Leafs team that they's had success against recently. The Lightning have won 3 straight over Toronto and 4 of the last 5 meetings. The Maple Leafs are 4-10 in their last 14 home games. In their last 6 games vs. a team from the Southeast the Leafs are 1-5. Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning +.
Ben Burns NBA Houston Rockets at Charlotte Bobcats 03/12/09
Prediction: under
Reason: The Rockets crushed the Bobcats by a score of 99-78 a few weeks ago. That wasn't particularly surprising though, as that game was at Houston and homecourt means an awful lot to both these teams.
Heading into Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers (played after presstime) the Rockets have won 12 straight home games, going 17-3 their last 20. However, heading into Monday's clash at Denver, they've won just seven of their past 20 road games. For the season, through the weekend, the Rockets are 27-6 at home but just 14-17 on the road.
As for the Bobcats, through the weekend, they're 10-20 on the road but a respectable 18-15 at home. Lately, however, it hasn't mattered where they've played, as they've been "getting it done," regardless of venue. Indeed, Saturday's 114-105 victory over the Knicks brought the Bobcats to a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games.
The Bobcats have won two of four all-time home meetings with the Rockets. While they lost last year's meeting, that loss came by only three points. Playing as well as they ever have and with recent "payback" on their minds, consider backing the revenge-minded Bobcats.
Prediction: under
Reason: The Rockets crushed the Bobcats by a score of 99-78 a few weeks ago. That wasn't particularly surprising though, as that game was at Houston and homecourt means an awful lot to both these teams.
Heading into Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers (played after presstime) the Rockets have won 12 straight home games, going 17-3 their last 20. However, heading into Monday's clash at Denver, they've won just seven of their past 20 road games. For the season, through the weekend, the Rockets are 27-6 at home but just 14-17 on the road.
As for the Bobcats, through the weekend, they're 10-20 on the road but a respectable 18-15 at home. Lately, however, it hasn't mattered where they've played, as they've been "getting it done," regardless of venue. Indeed, Saturday's 114-105 victory over the Knicks brought the Bobcats to a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games.
The Bobcats have won two of four all-time home meetings with the Rockets. While they lost last year's meeting, that loss came by only three points. Playing as well as they ever have and with recent "payback" on their minds, consider backing the revenge-minded Bobcats.
Big Al Mcmordie Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs 03/12/19
Mar 12 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: under
Reason: At 8 pm, our member selection is on the 'under' in the game between San Antone and Los Angeles. In the last 11 meetings between these two western conference rivals in the Alamo City, only one has gone 'over' the total. That game was the first meeting this season between these two teams. Tonight, I look for a 'return to form,' and for this game to sail 'under' the total of 195. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Mar 12 2009 8:00PM
Prediction: under
Reason: At 8 pm, our member selection is on the 'under' in the game between San Antone and Los Angeles. In the last 11 meetings between these two western conference rivals in the Alamo City, only one has gone 'over' the total. That game was the first meeting this season between these two teams. Tonight, I look for a 'return to form,' and for this game to sail 'under' the total of 195. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
James Patrick Sports College Basketball 03/12/09
USC vs. Cal 9:00 p.m. est.
The Pac 10 Conference Tournament hits the floor at the Staples Center in Los Angeles and the Trojans and Golden Bears should hit the floor running as the last seven games in this series have gone Over the Total. Our Thursday complimentary selection in NCAA College Basketball Tournament action is #787 USC-Cal Over the Total in PAC 10 action.
USC vs. Cal 9:00 p.m. est.
The Pac 10 Conference Tournament hits the floor at the Staples Center in Los Angeles and the Trojans and Golden Bears should hit the floor running as the last seven games in this series have gone Over the Total. Our Thursday complimentary selection in NCAA College Basketball Tournament action is #787 USC-Cal Over the Total in PAC 10 action.
CRAIG TRAPP
The PAC 10 conference overall has had a disappointing year. Most experts had USC as a definite NCAA tourney team in the preseason but not many picked CAL as one. CAL has outplayed all expectations and Coach Montgomery has shown why so many saw him as a top Coach while he was at Stanford. Both teams could really use this win and this game will probably be a very physical match up.
Even scoring has been the key for a big improvement at CAL this year, led by guard Jerome Randle averaging over 17 points and 4 assists a game. Coach Montgomery has brought his success that he had at Stanford over to the Bears. A year ahead of time this team will make the big dance as most likely a #7 seed.
USC has played tough defense all year and most games dominate the glass also. But in almost every loss they have struggled on the offensive end. Poor and inconsistent outside shooting has really let them down in some key games this year. Most likely need 2 wins to have any chance of making the big dance.
Recent Trends:
-Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
-Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
-Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
-Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Head to head Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Talent between these teams is pretty close and maybe USC is a little more athletic. This game is going to be won in a close one and the team that comes with better effort will win this game. Coach Montgomery has proven that his games win the game they are supposed to win so we are going to take CAL.
SCORE: CAL 69 - USC 62
The PAC 10 conference overall has had a disappointing year. Most experts had USC as a definite NCAA tourney team in the preseason but not many picked CAL as one. CAL has outplayed all expectations and Coach Montgomery has shown why so many saw him as a top Coach while he was at Stanford. Both teams could really use this win and this game will probably be a very physical match up.
Even scoring has been the key for a big improvement at CAL this year, led by guard Jerome Randle averaging over 17 points and 4 assists a game. Coach Montgomery has brought his success that he had at Stanford over to the Bears. A year ahead of time this team will make the big dance as most likely a #7 seed.
USC has played tough defense all year and most games dominate the glass also. But in almost every loss they have struggled on the offensive end. Poor and inconsistent outside shooting has really let them down in some key games this year. Most likely need 2 wins to have any chance of making the big dance.
Recent Trends:
-Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
-Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
-Golden Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
-Golden Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
-Head to head Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Talent between these teams is pretty close and maybe USC is a little more athletic. This game is going to be won in a close one and the team that comes with better effort will win this game. Coach Montgomery has proven that his games win the game they are supposed to win so we are going to take CAL.
SCORE: CAL 69 - USC 62
Matt F@rgo
Vanderbilt v/s Alabama 3/12/2009 7:30:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt
**9** SEC TOURNEY GAME OF THE YEAR **6-0** After starting the season 1-5 in the SEC, Vanderbilt rallied to finish 7-3 over its final 10 gets to get back to even in the conference and that is a big momentum builder heading into the conference tournament. The Commodores are coming off a 75-58 drubbing of Arkansas, their third straight victory that includes a win at LSU that snapped the Tigers\' 13-game conference winning streak. Other wins came against SEC East leader South Carolina, another incredibly hot team in 10-6 Auburn as well as this same Alabama team. When the offense gets going, this is a tough team to take down as the Commodores have won seven straight games when surpassing 70 points and that includes a 79-point effort in that Alabama game. The Alabama defense is not a strong one as it has allowed 70.7 ppg on the season including 77.4 ppg away from home and that could very well be the difference once again. Alabama enters this game off a win and it has won four of its last five games to turn around what looked like was going to a disaster of a season after head coach Mike Gottfried resigned. A lot of people have been impressed but I’m still not sold on the Tide despite coming in with some momentum following that buzzer-beating three-pointer at Tennessee on Sunday. Alabama has won two conference road games, snapping a two-year, 18-game SEC road losing streak. That includes Sunday’s win. While this game is not a true road game, it isn’t at home either so winning three straight outside of Tuscaloosa against conference foes is the task at hand and one that just isn’t going to happen. Vanderbilt will enter the SEC tournament on a winning streak for the first time since the 1993-94 season. This is a revenge game for Alabama but it means little for this team as it is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games away from home when revenging a loss where that opponent scored 75 or more points. Vanderbilt is known for its strong home floor edge but it is a solid 9-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral court contests. The fantasy run for the Tide ends on Thursday as the much stronger Commodores takes it going away.
9* Vanderbilt Commodores
Matt F@rgo
Kent St. v/s Buffalo 3/12/2009 2:20:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Buffalo
**7** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY ***7-1 START*** The MAC tournament is as wide open as ever this season so the low numbers in Thursday’s four games comes is no surprise. What does come as a surprise is the fact that the 6th seed is favored over the 3rd seed in this game. The Golden Flashes finished the season stronger over the second half so that is the main reason but one that should not affect the line like that. Buffalo head coach Reggie Witherspoon has stressed to his players all season that they’re only as good as their intensity. The Bulls reeled off nine straight wins before a Feb. 15 loss at Ball State launched a four-game losing streak in which their focus wavered. They vowed they’ve learned their lesson. Kent St. is coming off an unimpressive win over Northern Illinois on Tuesday to advance to this one and while it has had a day to rest and prepare, the Bulls have had four days off to get ready for this game. The win against Miami on Sunday gave the Bulls their first ever first-round bye in the MAC Tournament and a share of the league title. The Bulls have never been seeded higher than fifth in the MAC tournament since joining the conference in 1998. That speaks volumes of how good this team is and the way it won on Sunday gives Buffalo a huge boost of confidence. The Bulls came from 13 points down at the half to score the vital victory. Buffalo has won seven road games this season—its most since the 2004-05 campaign when it won eight. The seven road wins are tied with Miami for second most in the MAC this season (Akron has eight). These two teams squared off just a week ago and that game resulted in a six-point win for the Golden Flashes in overtime. That game was decided by free throw shooting as Kent St. scored 12 more points from the line. That was an aberration however as they do not get to the line much. A big edge here for the Bulls is the post play. Either the Golden Flashes control the boards or they are dominated on the boards. Buffalo pulled down 34 offensive rebounds in the two meetings between the teams during the regular season. They have gotten erratic production down low all season. During the first-round game against Northern Illinois, Kent St.\'s forwards combined for just 16 of the team\'s 64 points. That will be the difference and Buffalo moves forward.
7* Buffalo Bulls
Matt F@rgo
Cleveland v/s Phoenix 3/12/2009 10:35:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Phoenix
**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **15-5 RUN** I have gone against Cleveland numerous times on the road lately and will do so once again. The red hot start for the Cavaliers has led to them being overvalued almost every time out, especially in road games. Cleveland started the season 10-4 on the road but since then, it has gone 12-8 which is definitely solid, but not nearly the same. It is 8-12 ATS in those games and is a proven point to the Cavaliers being overvalued in these recent road games and it is definitely overvalued tonight. Phoenix is having a tougher than normal season and it is in the midst of a season long five-game losing streak. That only adds to our value here. Four of those losses came on the road, all against playoff bound teams while the latest came on Tuesday at home against Dallas who is gaining momentum right now. This recent skid has put the Suns five and a half games out of the Western Conference top eight so a run has to start and what better time than now against one of the best teams in the league while getting a ton of home points. A solid strategy in the NBA is to back these home underdogs whose home record is at least identical or close to the road record of the favorite and that is certainly the case here. Phoenix is 19-12 at home this year so it is only a game and a half worse than the Cavaliers road record. The Suns have been home underdogs only twice this season, winning against the Lakers 11 days ago as dogs of roughly the same number. The loss also came against the Lakers but that was way back on November 20th. Phoenix has not been playing bad during this recent stretch, it has just been on the wrong side of some late game breaks. The last four losses have come by six points or fewer. The Suns defense was torched for 122 points last time out against Dallas and the defense is the liability again but a bounce back effort can be expected. Phoenix is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 120 points or more and Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the second half of this season when playing against a team that is allowing 46 percent shooting or worse from the floor. There is no denying that Phoenix has struggled against the better teams this season but this number is too good to pass up. Cleveland has covered 75 percent of its games as a home favorite but just 54.2 percent of its games as a road favorite. This game also sets up as a revenge spot as Phoenix was beaten soundly in Cleveland by 17 points just a month ago. The Suns had 22 assists and an amazing 25 turnovers in that game and the main reason for that was that they were without Steve Nash in that contest. This will be a different result in the desert.
8* Phoenix Suns
Vanderbilt v/s Alabama 3/12/2009 7:30:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Vanderbilt
**9** SEC TOURNEY GAME OF THE YEAR **6-0** After starting the season 1-5 in the SEC, Vanderbilt rallied to finish 7-3 over its final 10 gets to get back to even in the conference and that is a big momentum builder heading into the conference tournament. The Commodores are coming off a 75-58 drubbing of Arkansas, their third straight victory that includes a win at LSU that snapped the Tigers\' 13-game conference winning streak. Other wins came against SEC East leader South Carolina, another incredibly hot team in 10-6 Auburn as well as this same Alabama team. When the offense gets going, this is a tough team to take down as the Commodores have won seven straight games when surpassing 70 points and that includes a 79-point effort in that Alabama game. The Alabama defense is not a strong one as it has allowed 70.7 ppg on the season including 77.4 ppg away from home and that could very well be the difference once again. Alabama enters this game off a win and it has won four of its last five games to turn around what looked like was going to a disaster of a season after head coach Mike Gottfried resigned. A lot of people have been impressed but I’m still not sold on the Tide despite coming in with some momentum following that buzzer-beating three-pointer at Tennessee on Sunday. Alabama has won two conference road games, snapping a two-year, 18-game SEC road losing streak. That includes Sunday’s win. While this game is not a true road game, it isn’t at home either so winning three straight outside of Tuscaloosa against conference foes is the task at hand and one that just isn’t going to happen. Vanderbilt will enter the SEC tournament on a winning streak for the first time since the 1993-94 season. This is a revenge game for Alabama but it means little for this team as it is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games away from home when revenging a loss where that opponent scored 75 or more points. Vanderbilt is known for its strong home floor edge but it is a solid 9-2 ATS in its last 11 neutral court contests. The fantasy run for the Tide ends on Thursday as the much stronger Commodores takes it going away.
9* Vanderbilt Commodores
Matt F@rgo
Kent St. v/s Buffalo 3/12/2009 2:20:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Buffalo
**7** CBB DARK HORSE DANDY ***7-1 START*** The MAC tournament is as wide open as ever this season so the low numbers in Thursday’s four games comes is no surprise. What does come as a surprise is the fact that the 6th seed is favored over the 3rd seed in this game. The Golden Flashes finished the season stronger over the second half so that is the main reason but one that should not affect the line like that. Buffalo head coach Reggie Witherspoon has stressed to his players all season that they’re only as good as their intensity. The Bulls reeled off nine straight wins before a Feb. 15 loss at Ball State launched a four-game losing streak in which their focus wavered. They vowed they’ve learned their lesson. Kent St. is coming off an unimpressive win over Northern Illinois on Tuesday to advance to this one and while it has had a day to rest and prepare, the Bulls have had four days off to get ready for this game. The win against Miami on Sunday gave the Bulls their first ever first-round bye in the MAC Tournament and a share of the league title. The Bulls have never been seeded higher than fifth in the MAC tournament since joining the conference in 1998. That speaks volumes of how good this team is and the way it won on Sunday gives Buffalo a huge boost of confidence. The Bulls came from 13 points down at the half to score the vital victory. Buffalo has won seven road games this season—its most since the 2004-05 campaign when it won eight. The seven road wins are tied with Miami for second most in the MAC this season (Akron has eight). These two teams squared off just a week ago and that game resulted in a six-point win for the Golden Flashes in overtime. That game was decided by free throw shooting as Kent St. scored 12 more points from the line. That was an aberration however as they do not get to the line much. A big edge here for the Bulls is the post play. Either the Golden Flashes control the boards or they are dominated on the boards. Buffalo pulled down 34 offensive rebounds in the two meetings between the teams during the regular season. They have gotten erratic production down low all season. During the first-round game against Northern Illinois, Kent St.\'s forwards combined for just 16 of the team\'s 64 points. That will be the difference and Buffalo moves forward.
7* Buffalo Bulls
Matt F@rgo
Cleveland v/s Phoenix 3/12/2009 10:35:00 pm
Predicted Winner: Phoenix
**8** NBA TNT STAR ATTRACTION **15-5 RUN** I have gone against Cleveland numerous times on the road lately and will do so once again. The red hot start for the Cavaliers has led to them being overvalued almost every time out, especially in road games. Cleveland started the season 10-4 on the road but since then, it has gone 12-8 which is definitely solid, but not nearly the same. It is 8-12 ATS in those games and is a proven point to the Cavaliers being overvalued in these recent road games and it is definitely overvalued tonight. Phoenix is having a tougher than normal season and it is in the midst of a season long five-game losing streak. That only adds to our value here. Four of those losses came on the road, all against playoff bound teams while the latest came on Tuesday at home against Dallas who is gaining momentum right now. This recent skid has put the Suns five and a half games out of the Western Conference top eight so a run has to start and what better time than now against one of the best teams in the league while getting a ton of home points. A solid strategy in the NBA is to back these home underdogs whose home record is at least identical or close to the road record of the favorite and that is certainly the case here. Phoenix is 19-12 at home this year so it is only a game and a half worse than the Cavaliers road record. The Suns have been home underdogs only twice this season, winning against the Lakers 11 days ago as dogs of roughly the same number. The loss also came against the Lakers but that was way back on November 20th. Phoenix has not been playing bad during this recent stretch, it has just been on the wrong side of some late game breaks. The last four losses have come by six points or fewer. The Suns defense was torched for 122 points last time out against Dallas and the defense is the liability again but a bounce back effort can be expected. Phoenix is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing 120 points or more and Cleveland is 0-6 ATS in the second half of this season when playing against a team that is allowing 46 percent shooting or worse from the floor. There is no denying that Phoenix has struggled against the better teams this season but this number is too good to pass up. Cleveland has covered 75 percent of its games as a home favorite but just 54.2 percent of its games as a road favorite. This game also sets up as a revenge spot as Phoenix was beaten soundly in Cleveland by 17 points just a month ago. The Suns had 22 assists and an amazing 25 turnovers in that game and the main reason for that was that they were without Steve Nash in that contest. This will be a different result in the desert.
8* Phoenix Suns
