Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
40 Dime ---- SPURS
10 Dime ---- WASHINGTON HUSKIES
5 Dime ---- CALIFORNIA BEARS
SAN ANTONIO SPURS --- We’re going to get some line value here today because of the uncertainty of Spurs G Manu Ginobili… and that’s okay with us. Even if Ginobili isn’t able to go, the Spurs are licking their chops at a chance for revenge after Detroit rallied from 10-down back in December, eventually beating the Spurs 89-77 at the AT&T Center. HC Greg Popovich knows all too well that if they continue to falter against teams like the Knicks, they’ll fail to lock up the #1 overall seed in the Western Conference, and that means home court advantage likely goes to the Lakers. Despite the OT loss to the Knicks, the Spurs will still able to score over 100 points and showed an offensive spark many thought was impossible without Ginobili in the lineup. San Antonio comes in with a much needed day of rest where they are 15-8-2 ATS so far this season.
Since the last meeting in December, these two teams have headed in opposite directions with the Spurs winning 26 of their next 35 games while the Pistons have sputtered to a 16-19 record during that same span. And if you think the Pistons are glad to be at home, think again. They are a money-burning 7-21 ATS at home this season and just 2-9 SU (1-10 ATS) at home in the last six weeks, not to mention the fact they are scoring just 89 PPG at home in those same 11 games. Dreadful. And if you think Allen Iverson is going to give them an offensive boost in this one, think again. Iverson, the team’s leading scorer, averages just 17 PPG at the Palace and has suddenly developed a propensity to turn the ball over at the worst possible times.
The Spurs are a respectable 17-10 away from the Alamo, including a 15-11-1 ATS mark in those games. With Ginobili expected not to play in this one, keep an eye on Roger Mason Jr. who hit 7 of 17 shots in their recent loss to the Knicks and finished with 20 pts. and 6 boards. Mason can not only score and rebound, he can also play defense with the best of them. San Antonio takes it personally when someone scores over 100 points against them because they pride themselves on their defense. Check this out. The Spurs last allowed 100+ points in a loss to the Denver Nuggets back in early February. They followed that game with a six-point win in Boston. Before that they suffered a 99-85 setback in Los Angeles (okay, so it’s not 100 but it’s close enough). They followed that loss with a six-point win in Utah. Before that they suffered a 109-87 beatdown in Philly. The following day they limited Chicago to 87 points in a 92-87 win.
My point here is that you don’t often see the Spurs allow 100 points in back-to-back games, and it’s also not often they lose two straight. Not counting the All Star Break, the last time the Spurs lost back-to-back games was in December when they fell apart in New Orleans (90-83) and one day later lost to Orlando (90-78). Something to remember, however, was the fact they were playing on back-to-back nights and we all know how poorly this team plays when asked to play two games in two nights. Vegas is giving us a generous line tonight and I’m here to take full advantage of it.
WASHINGTON HUSKIES --- No way I’m buying the revenge card here as Vegas is begging bettors to take the Bruins minus single digits. Washington laid the wood to UCLA back in late-January as a small dog, and since UCLA plays convincingly better at home than on the road, the oddsmakers are hoping you and I will jump on the Bruins. Remember, UCLA has won their last three home games by no less than 16 points and has lost just once at home this season (a 61-58 OT loss to ASU). I’m sorry, though, but I’m not convinced they can withstand the Washington pressure for a full 40 minutes without allowing the surging Huskies to have a few runs in this game. UCLA has lost two straight (granted, they were on the road) and failed to score more than 72 points in either of them while allowing 74 and 84 respectively.
Lorenzo Romar’s young Huskies play with reckless abandon for a full 40 minutes and no lead is ever safe with this “fun-n-gun” bunch. Freshman PG Isaiah Thomas is averaging nearly 17 PPG and as long as he’s dishing out assists and keeping his turnovers down, the Huskies are somewhat unstoppable on offense. Thomas hit seven of his nine shots in Saturday’s 103-84 win over Oregon, scoring 24 points, dishing out 4 assists and recording 4 steals. Talk about an unbelievable head-to-head showdown… how about Thomas vs. Darren Collison. I’d pay the price of admission just to see that matchup. Washington hasn’t been the greatest road team this season, but they do have a couple of very impressive road wins on their resume, including a seven-point win in Stanford and a 13-point win at Arizona State.
One thing to also remember… in the last meeting between these two, G Justin Dentmon (one of the team’s leading scorers) played just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. If he can figure out a way to stay out of foul trouble tonight, it could spell trouble for the Bruins at home. UCLA simply laying too many points for my liking, so I’m inclined to back the road dog here. Huskies rolling recently, covering eight of their last 11 ATS road games vs. a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five after scoring 90 or more points in their previous game. Washington has also covered the last four vs. the Bruins, making this an easy selection tonight.
CALIFORNIA --- I’m absolutely loving what the Golden Bears are doing right now, winning and covering their last three games against Stanford, Washington and Washington State. Granted, these games were all at home but it’s not like they can’t go on the road and win. Back in January the Bears went into Washington and WSU and came away with impressive wins. They’ve also won at UNLV and Utah earlier in the year. But what’s most impressive is the fact they’re playing so well defensively right now, limiting Stanford to just 25 points in the second half of Saturday’s 82-75 win over Stanford despite trailing 50-36 at halftime. They also kept Washington to 71 points and held the Cougars to 63 points a few nights later.
Oregon, on the other hand, hasn’t found a way to win in the Pac 10 yet and I’m not sure they’re going to be able to solve that puzzle tonight. The Ducks haven’t won a game since an 86-74 win over Long Beach State back on December 29th. That’s right, they’re 0-for-2009, meaning they haven’t won a game in the new year. Though they do play better at home, it’s not like they haven’t been blown out either. USC beat them by 21. Washington beat them by 17. Washington State beat them by 12. Even Arizona recently beat them by 10. The Ducks have no business getting single digits against a team like Cal and this game is going to be over with around 10 minutes remaining in the second half. It’s all Cal, as they win by double digits tonight.
