Cajun-Sports NFL Executive Sunday-Late Report
Time / Date: 8:15 EST / Sunday September 21 (NBC TV)
Game: Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Line Origin: BetCris @ 1:28 EST September 21
Grade / Prediction: 3* Green Bay Packers +3
Analysis:
The Green Bay Packers will play host to the Dallas Cowboys on NBC’s Featured Primetime NFL Sunday Night Game of the Week. The Cowboys are coming off a thrilling Monday night victory over the Eagles 41 to 37. The Packers blew a 4th quarter lead of 24 to 9 only to get it all back and more in a 48 to 25 blow-out victory over the Lions last Sunday.
The Cowboys are working on a short week and are coming off a very emotional Monday night game against the Eagles and now must get up again for another Primetime Contest at Lambeau Field.
Dallas QB Tony Romo was 21 of 30 for 310 yards passing against the Eagles with three touchdown passes. He had one INT and he did lose a fumble that was recovered in the end zone to give Philly a touchdown during the second quarter of Monday night’s game.
QB Tony Romo has passed for 632 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INT’s so far this season. His main targets are WR Terrell Owens (8 rec 176 yds 3 TD) and TE Jason Witten (13 rec 206 yds). Dallas RB Marion Barber III has 143 yards rushing and 3 TD’s on the year.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was outstanding last week going 24 of 38 for 328 yards and three TDs and no INTs, and Green Bay finished with a 447-311 total yardage edge over the Detroit Lions.
Aaron Rodgers has passed for 506 yards and 4 TD’s this season. His go to guys are Greg Jennings (11 rec 258 yds) and Donald Driver (11 rec 90 yds 1 TD). The Packers rushing attack is led by Ryan Grant who has rushed for 112 yards this season.
Neither team has been great on defense this season; the Cowboys were torched by McNabb and company on Monday night. The Packer’s defense has been somewhat opportunistic in that they picked off Lions QB Kitna on three straight possessions and returned two of those for touchdowns.
The Packers and Cowboys have met only twice this decade, with each winning and covering at home. Last November, Dallas scored a 37-27 home win laying seven points, with Rodgers coming off the bench to replace injured starter Brett Favre. The home team has won 10 straight meetings in this rivalry, going 9-1 ATS, including 7-0 ATS in the last seven.
The Packers have won nineteen of their last twenty-two regular-season games including a 10-1 record at Lambeau Field during that stretch. Green Bay is also 7-1-1 ATS at Lambeau, 19-7-2 ATS overall, 7-0 ATS in September, 16-5-2 ATS against the NFC and 12-4 ATS after a SU win. Dallas is 1-6 ATS overall, 0-6 ATS against the NFC, 0-4 ATS after a non-cover and 1-4 ATS after a SU win.
The Cowboys are 1-17-2 ATS as a favorite after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times. The Cowboys are 1-12 ATS after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-9 ATS on the road after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Packers are 10-0 ATS as a dog after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Packers are 9-0 ATS as a dog after a straight up win when the line was within 3 of pick'em.
Our Technical Situation Report shows the Cowboys are in a negative situation for teams playing on Sunday Night coming off a home game versus a tough opponent (WP >0.8), 2-22 ATS since 1994.
GRADED PREDICTION: 3* GREEN BAY PACKERS +3
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