DAVE MALINSKY
4* ATLANTA/FLORIDA OVER
We do not believe that the markets are correct here, and now that the 7’s are being cemented it is time to get in play. Yes, we understand someone using the full-season numbers of Josh Johnson to try to force this Total down. But those are not the proper measurements for what he brings today.
When half of your games are in the heat and humidity of South Florida, it is a long MLB summer for a pitcher, especially a power guy. That is becoming a factor for Johnson, but the fact that injuries made his limited 2007-08 cycles meaningless from a fatigue standpoint keeps the real impact from showing. As such, the fact that he was at 9-3/1.70 prior to the All Star break this season, and a 2-2/3.99 since then, may only look like a short-term slump. Instead, it is a real pattern. If we eliminate the 2007-08 seasons from the charting, the Johnson career path is at 2.23 in all games before the All Star break, and 4.05 afterwards. That is significant. It is not just bad luck right now, but rather the fact that he is laboring – over his last six starts his W’s per 9 are at 4.03, after a 1.95 previously. And three times in those six games he has been at 19.2 PPI or higher, a plateau that he had not reached since his first start of the season. The bottom line? His full-season numbers are not the proper identifier, and on a hot and humid afternoon in Atlanta it will not be easy to snap back to form, especially against a patient offense that leads the N.L. in both W’s and W’s per plate appearance by a wide margin, which means high early pitcher counts.
Meanwhile the Marlins get a favorable transition here – is there a better way to get the rhythm and timing of a right-handed sinkerball down than by facing a guy with similar stuff the night before? Derek Lowe becomes much easier to read and time if you just saw Tim Hudson, especially since he brings lesser stuff, and note that the two key cogs in the heart of the Florida lineup, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, particularly like the matchup – they are a combined 22-50 lifetime against him, with 10 extra-base hits.
4* ATLANTA/FLORIDA OVER
We do not believe that the markets are correct here, and now that the 7’s are being cemented it is time to get in play. Yes, we understand someone using the full-season numbers of Josh Johnson to try to force this Total down. But those are not the proper measurements for what he brings today.
When half of your games are in the heat and humidity of South Florida, it is a long MLB summer for a pitcher, especially a power guy. That is becoming a factor for Johnson, but the fact that injuries made his limited 2007-08 cycles meaningless from a fatigue standpoint keeps the real impact from showing. As such, the fact that he was at 9-3/1.70 prior to the All Star break this season, and a 2-2/3.99 since then, may only look like a short-term slump. Instead, it is a real pattern. If we eliminate the 2007-08 seasons from the charting, the Johnson career path is at 2.23 in all games before the All Star break, and 4.05 afterwards. That is significant. It is not just bad luck right now, but rather the fact that he is laboring – over his last six starts his W’s per 9 are at 4.03, after a 1.95 previously. And three times in those six games he has been at 19.2 PPI or higher, a plateau that he had not reached since his first start of the season. The bottom line? His full-season numbers are not the proper identifier, and on a hot and humid afternoon in Atlanta it will not be easy to snap back to form, especially against a patient offense that leads the N.L. in both W’s and W’s per plate appearance by a wide margin, which means high early pitcher counts.
Meanwhile the Marlins get a favorable transition here – is there a better way to get the rhythm and timing of a right-handed sinkerball down than by facing a guy with similar stuff the night before? Derek Lowe becomes much easier to read and time if you just saw Tim Hudson, especially since he brings lesser stuff, and note that the two key cogs in the heart of the Florida lineup, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, particularly like the matchup – they are a combined 22-50 lifetime against him, with 10 extra-base hits.
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