Malinsky
4* TORONTO/BOSTON Under
We have gone to the well with Josh Beckett Under in each of his last
two games, and while we only managed a split, the premise of catching
him at the right time has been dead on - he allowed only three runs
over 14.2 innings in a pair of dominating road outings, with more
strikeouts (15) than hits + walks combined (13). Now he returns home
to Fenway for the first time since a rare ugly outing in that Park
vs. the Angels three starts back, and that means a special chip on
his shoulder. It also means a chance to dominate a limited Toronto
offense.
In getting behind Beckett recently we noted that there has not been
anything wrong with this stuff at all. He went 20-7/3.27 LY, behind a
1.14 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts-per-9. This season his overall has
fallen to 11-8/3.92, despite the fact that the WHIP is 1.18 and the
strikeouts-per-9 right at 8.7 again. The only issue has been an
increase in home runs, but he has not allowed one in either of those
last two starts, and only two in 35 innings since the All Star break.
Now he faces a team that is most unlikely to hit one (the Blue Jays
are dead last in the A.L. in that category), which means that his
roll has every chance to continue. And note that stepping down in
class is something that he has not had a chance to do often - of the
135 pitchers that have worked at least 80 innings so far, his
difficulty of batters faced is #11.
We get value because the markets see his full-season numbers more
than the current form, however, and the same can be said about Shaun
Marcum. Marcum had to work his way through some physical issues
earlier, which led to a stint on the DL, and he also struggled to
find his rhythm on his return. But in back-to-back solid wins over
Oakland and Detroit we have seen the Marcum that we are accustomed to
- he allowed only three runs on 11 hits over 13 innings of those
wins. Now he can continue to make up for lost time much like Beckett,
and with Roy Halladay?s Saturday gem leaving the entire Toronto
bullpen rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Not only are both of these starters under-valued, but each bullpen
brings the key arms fresh. That means we have outstanding value, and
we can also attribute that earlier Red Sox series vs. Texas this week
for more of that - beating up that cluster of Minor League pitching
talents does not indicate at all where this offense really is, and
when they had to finally step in class last night they failed
miserably.
6* CHICAGO over OAKLAND
We got behind Javier Vazquez in his last outing, and here was the
prelude to the play from that writeup - ?. . .and with a notion
that we are in the right place at the right time to get behind Javier
Vazquez it means time to get involved here. . .Meanwhile Vazquez is
not being treated well by the marketplace because he has been on a
1-5 slide over his last eight starts, but take a closer look. He has
pitched seven full innings in three of four starts since the All Star
break, and went six in the other, an easy road win over these Royals.
We do not see anything wrong in his stuff at all, and the timing is
right to start buying in behind him now for a late-season
correction.?
All Vazquez did was pitch perhaps his best game of the season,
shutting the Royals out over eight innings, and having twice as many
strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (5). But when we see the near pick?em
range for this game it shows that the markets are still far behind
the true level of the Chicago right-hander. His 9-10/4.50 makes him
appear to be the epitome of an average pitcher, which he is not. So
for a guy that has solid peripheral numbers, managing nearly a
strikeout per inning (151 in 156 frames), and also having more than
three times as many strikeouts as walks allowed, we will not hesitate
to get into play again. With the superiority of the White Sox
offense, we will also get involved in a major way.
Chicago will be facing a left-hander for the third straight game, and
in Gio Gonzalez we see a vulnerable young hurler. He is considered a
decent prospect because he has a live arm, but he lacks polish and
command, and is not ready for this level yet. He was an uninspiring
8-7/4.24 at AAA, with a high walk count, but the Athletics have
decided to give him a look anyway, even through his 23rd birthday is
not for a couple of more days. And while his 1-1/4.09 may appear that
he has held his own through the first two starts, that has not been
the case at all. First he opened against the Blue Jays, who have been
the A.L.?s weakest offense against left-handers, and were playing
without Vernon Wells. Then it was a home game against a Tampa Bay
team that has also been among the bottom in the league against
left-handers, and was playing without Carl Crawford and Evan
Longoria. So his base numbers have to be adjusted because of the
limited competition, and note that in holding the Rays to one run
over five innings he was more lucky than good - nine of the 23
batters that he faced reached based via a hit or a walk, and he had
an ugly ratio of seven fly-ball outs vs. only two on the ground. The
bottom line? There is not much there. Now he has to step way up in
class against a savvy veteran lineup that packs a lot of punch, and
it will not take long before he gets exposed.
The White Sox are well-set in all facets here. By getting a rare win
in this ballpark on Saturday they got a bit of that monkey off of
their backs, which takes the psychological issues away. There is also
a red-hot Bobby Jenks (1.83, 25 saves) ready for the latter stages,
with yesterday?s easy 9th inning (only nine pitches) coming after
three straight off days. Jenks has not been scored on in August,
allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter in six
appearances, and that creates more than the struggling Oakland
offense can overcome here, particularly with the White Sox figuring
to get plenty of production.<!-- / message -->
4* TORONTO/BOSTON Under
We have gone to the well with Josh Beckett Under in each of his last
two games, and while we only managed a split, the premise of catching
him at the right time has been dead on - he allowed only three runs
over 14.2 innings in a pair of dominating road outings, with more
strikeouts (15) than hits + walks combined (13). Now he returns home
to Fenway for the first time since a rare ugly outing in that Park
vs. the Angels three starts back, and that means a special chip on
his shoulder. It also means a chance to dominate a limited Toronto
offense.
In getting behind Beckett recently we noted that there has not been
anything wrong with this stuff at all. He went 20-7/3.27 LY, behind a
1.14 WHIP and 8.7 strikeouts-per-9. This season his overall has
fallen to 11-8/3.92, despite the fact that the WHIP is 1.18 and the
strikeouts-per-9 right at 8.7 again. The only issue has been an
increase in home runs, but he has not allowed one in either of those
last two starts, and only two in 35 innings since the All Star break.
Now he faces a team that is most unlikely to hit one (the Blue Jays
are dead last in the A.L. in that category), which means that his
roll has every chance to continue. And note that stepping down in
class is something that he has not had a chance to do often - of the
135 pitchers that have worked at least 80 innings so far, his
difficulty of batters faced is #11.
We get value because the markets see his full-season numbers more
than the current form, however, and the same can be said about Shaun
Marcum. Marcum had to work his way through some physical issues
earlier, which led to a stint on the DL, and he also struggled to
find his rhythm on his return. But in back-to-back solid wins over
Oakland and Detroit we have seen the Marcum that we are accustomed to
- he allowed only three runs on 11 hits over 13 innings of those
wins. Now he can continue to make up for lost time much like Beckett,
and with Roy Halladay?s Saturday gem leaving the entire Toronto
bullpen rested and ready, the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Not only are both of these starters under-valued, but each bullpen
brings the key arms fresh. That means we have outstanding value, and
we can also attribute that earlier Red Sox series vs. Texas this week
for more of that - beating up that cluster of Minor League pitching
talents does not indicate at all where this offense really is, and
when they had to finally step in class last night they failed
miserably.
6* CHICAGO over OAKLAND
We got behind Javier Vazquez in his last outing, and here was the
prelude to the play from that writeup - ?. . .and with a notion
that we are in the right place at the right time to get behind Javier
Vazquez it means time to get involved here. . .Meanwhile Vazquez is
not being treated well by the marketplace because he has been on a
1-5 slide over his last eight starts, but take a closer look. He has
pitched seven full innings in three of four starts since the All Star
break, and went six in the other, an easy road win over these Royals.
We do not see anything wrong in his stuff at all, and the timing is
right to start buying in behind him now for a late-season
correction.?
All Vazquez did was pitch perhaps his best game of the season,
shutting the Royals out over eight innings, and having twice as many
strikeouts (10) as hits allowed (5). But when we see the near pick?em
range for this game it shows that the markets are still far behind
the true level of the Chicago right-hander. His 9-10/4.50 makes him
appear to be the epitome of an average pitcher, which he is not. So
for a guy that has solid peripheral numbers, managing nearly a
strikeout per inning (151 in 156 frames), and also having more than
three times as many strikeouts as walks allowed, we will not hesitate
to get into play again. With the superiority of the White Sox
offense, we will also get involved in a major way.
Chicago will be facing a left-hander for the third straight game, and
in Gio Gonzalez we see a vulnerable young hurler. He is considered a
decent prospect because he has a live arm, but he lacks polish and
command, and is not ready for this level yet. He was an uninspiring
8-7/4.24 at AAA, with a high walk count, but the Athletics have
decided to give him a look anyway, even through his 23rd birthday is
not for a couple of more days. And while his 1-1/4.09 may appear that
he has held his own through the first two starts, that has not been
the case at all. First he opened against the Blue Jays, who have been
the A.L.?s weakest offense against left-handers, and were playing
without Vernon Wells. Then it was a home game against a Tampa Bay
team that has also been among the bottom in the league against
left-handers, and was playing without Carl Crawford and Evan
Longoria. So his base numbers have to be adjusted because of the
limited competition, and note that in holding the Rays to one run
over five innings he was more lucky than good - nine of the 23
batters that he faced reached based via a hit or a walk, and he had
an ugly ratio of seven fly-ball outs vs. only two on the ground. The
bottom line? There is not much there. Now he has to step way up in
class against a savvy veteran lineup that packs a lot of punch, and
it will not take long before he gets exposed.
The White Sox are well-set in all facets here. By getting a rare win
in this ballpark on Saturday they got a bit of that monkey off of
their backs, which takes the psychological issues away. There is also
a red-hot Bobby Jenks (1.83, 25 saves) ready for the latter stages,
with yesterday?s easy 9th inning (only nine pitches) coming after
three straight off days. Jenks has not been scored on in August,
allowing only two hits and not walking a single batter in six
appearances, and that creates more than the struggling Oakland
offense can overcome here, particularly with the White Sox figuring
to get plenty of production.<!-- / message -->
44-19 70% +115 units Last 63 plays! NFLX 7-1 +16.58 units overall. POD's are 77-50 61% +96.48 units! Lets keep the streak going Sunday! Plays below, liking some + runlines today at a good price
5 units San Diego +1.5 +107 **POD**
5 units Cleveland +1.5 -115
5 units Florida +1.5 -124
5 units LA Dodgers -150 rare big Fav
5 units San Diego +1.5 +107 **POD**
5 units Cleveland +1.5 -115
5 units Florida +1.5 -124
5 units LA Dodgers -150 rare big Fav
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>Andrew Powers</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 134-64 since joining this web site with all of our GUARANTEED SELECTIONS! Today we are featuring another RED HOT BASBEALL POWER PLAY WINNER! You can take advanatge of our BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR right now for just $35 and you will pay only after you win!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>8/17/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
Minnesota w/Perkins -1.5 -105 2:10 EST</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$35.00 Guaranteed: We are currently on a 134-64 since joining this web site with all of our GUARANTEED SELECTIONS! Today we are featuring another RED HOT BASBEALL POWER PLAY WINNER! You can take advanatge of our BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR right now for just $35 and you will pay only after you win!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>8/17/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>BASEBALL POWER PLAY RUN LINE GAME OF THE YEAR
Minnesota w/Perkins -1.5 -105 2:10 EST</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Consensus Group</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Sunday, August 17, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 69-38 for +25.7 Units this year in Baseball playing ONE UNIT PER GAME! Today we are featuring 5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS RUN LINE WINNER as ALL FIVE of our handicappers are on this game and ALL FIVE of them are making this game a BEST BET!! The Computer Simulator gives our play an 89% chance of winning! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER for $25!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>8/17/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS RUN LINE WINNER
NY Yankees w/Mussina -1.5 -135 1:05 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
$25.00 Guaranteed: We are now 69-38 for +25.7 Units this year in Baseball playing ONE UNIT PER GAME! Today we are featuring 5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS RUN LINE WINNER as ALL FIVE of our handicappers are on this game and ALL FIVE of them are making this game a BEST BET!! The Computer Simulator gives our play an 89% chance of winning! Get this GUARANTEED WINNER for $25!</TD><TD vAlign=top noWrap align=right>8/17/2008</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2> </TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2>5000* BASEBALL DIAMOND CONSENSUS RUN LINE WINNER
NY Yankees w/Mussina -1.5 -135 1:05 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Golden Contender
Coming off the solid 3-0 day in preseason football on Sarturday,i have a nice a.l. totals play, and an off shore steam play in the national league.Ill make the national league play my comp for sunday.The game goes in a few minutes.Take the under in the Nationals,Colorado Rockies game at 1:35 eastern und 8.with listed pitchers Cook and Perez.Now ona solid 101-68 run at ywn, hopefully we keep it rolling today. bol gc
<!-- / message -->
Coming off the solid 3-0 day in preseason football on Sarturday,i have a nice a.l. totals play, and an off shore steam play in the national league.Ill make the national league play my comp for sunday.The game goes in a few minutes.Take the under in the Nationals,Colorado Rockies game at 1:35 eastern und 8.with listed pitchers Cook and Perez.Now ona solid 101-68 run at ywn, hopefully we keep it rolling today. bol gc
<!-- / message -->
