THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Detroit (1-0, 0-0-1 ATS) at Cincinnati (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Lions look to start off the preseason 2-0 for the second straight year when they visit the Bengals
Detroit held off the Giants 13-10 in its preseason opener nine days ago, pushing as a three-point home favorite. The Lions, who got outgained 310-298 last week, are 3-2 in August (1-3-1 ATS) since coach Rod Marinelli took over last year, but 0-2 on the road (1-1 ATS). In fact, Detroit is mired in preseason ATS slumps of 4-12-1 overall, 2-8 on the road and 3-9 as an underdog.
Cincinnati spotted Green Bay a 10-0 first-quarter lead Monday, then rallied for 17 second-quarter points en route to a 20-17 victory, cashing as a three-point road underdog. The Bengals gave up 383 total yards (271 passing), but they forced three turnovers. Despite the win over the Packers, Cincinnati is still only 11-10 SU and 12-9 ATS since Marvin Lewis took over as coach in 2003, but 7-3 at home (6-4 ATS).
After being on the field for only about 10 snaps in Week 1, the Lions’ starters on both sides of the ball are expected go a bit longer tonight, with Marinelli anticipating 18 to 22 snaps for his first-stringers. That includes top QB Jon Kitna, who will be followed by Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton.
It’s unknown how long the Bengals’ starters, including QB Carson Palmer, will be on the field tonight, as Lewis didn’t make his plans public. Last week, Palmer played into the second quarter and went 5 of 9 for 33 yards and a touchdown. If Lewis sticks to the same rotation as last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick will replace Palmer, followed by Jeff Rowe. Palmer’s brother, Jordan, may see mop-up action.
The Bengals traveled to Detroit in Week 1 of last year’s preseason and lost 27-26, but covered as a three-point underdog.
The over is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four preseason road games and 4-1 in Cincy’s last four overall in the summer.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (0-1 SU and ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers try to continue their preseason dominance of the Patriots, whom they’ve defeated six straight times in August, in a nationally televised clash at Raymond James Stadium.
With stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss on the sidelines throughout, the Patriots dropped a 16-15 decision to Baltimore in Week 1, getting upset as a 4’-point home favorite. New England ‘ which went 2-2 SU each of the previous three exhibition seasons ‘ has been a bad bet on the road in August recently, going 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS, including 2-3-1 ATS as an underdog. One positive for the Patriots: They’re 3-1 ATS in their last four preseason games following an outright loss.
Tampa Bay had no trouble with in-state rival Miami a week ago, throttling the Dolphins 17-6 as a two-point road underdog. The Bucs are now 14-8 SU and 13-7-2 ATS in the last five-plus preseasons, including 4-1 SU and ATS going back to last year. They’ve also been tremendous at home in August since coach Jon Gruden arrived (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) and they’re 9-3 ATS as a preseason chalk dating to 2005.
On the downside for the Bucs: They’ve lost three straight Week 2 preseason games, going 0-3 ATS.
Tampa Bay QB Jeff Garcia will sit out for the second straight week because of an injury, leaving the starting chores in the hands of veteran Brian Griese. Once Griese departs, Luke McCown, who started last week’s game, will take over for the rest of the first half, with Chris Simms playing the majority of the second half.
As usual, Patriots coach Bill Belichick was tight-lipped about playing time for tonight’s contest. However, Brady most likely will start under center but probably will play only a couple of series. From there, the three QBs battling to be Brady’s backup ‘ Matt Cassell, rookie Kevin O’Connell and Matt Gutierrez ‘ will divvy up the snaps
These teams opened the 2007 preseason against each other, with the Buccaneers pulling out a 13-10 win, barely cashing as a 2’-point home favorite. Going back to 1999, Tampa is 5-0 SU and ATS in preseason action against New England.
The under is 4-2 in New England’s last six preseason road games (2-0 last year) and 3-1 in Tampa’s last four at home in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (75-48) at Florida (64-60)
The Marlins send impressive rookie pitcher Chris Volstad (4-2, 3.03 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Cubs and Ryan Dempster (13-5, 2.92).
Chicago had its five-game overall and nine-game road winning streaks snapped in Saturday’s 2-1 loss to the Marlins. Despite that setback, the Cubs have still won eight of 10 and 15 of their last 19 to build a commanding lead in the N.L. Central. They’re on further streaks of 5-1 against the N.L. East, 4-0 on Sundays and 17-8 with Dempster on the hill.
While the Cubs have been surging, the Marlins have been floundering, losing four of their last six overall and five of their last seven at home. They’re also 1-4 in their last five against a right-handed starter and 2-5 in their last seven versus the N.L. Central. On the bright side, Florida is now 13-3 in the last 16 meetings with Chicago, including 7-1 in the last eight played in South Beach.
Dempster has been rock-solid for Chicago virtually all season, including recently as he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts (1.65 ERA) and seven of the last eight, with the Cubs going 5-3 during this stretch, including 3-0 on the road. However, for the season, the veteran right-hander is only 2-3 as a visitor despite a 3.17 ERA.
Dempster held the Marlins to a run on two hits and six walks in six innings back on July 25, but the Cubs lost 3-2 at home. It was Dempster’s first career start against Florida, but including 10 relief appearances, he’s 1-1 with a 2.40 ERA against the Fish.
Volstad got his fourth major-league win Tuesday, yielding three runs on five hits in five innings of a 4-3 home victory over St. Louis. The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of his six outings, and he’s surrendered just one home run in 38 2/3 innings. At home, though, he’s 1-2 with a beefy 5.62 ERA in three starts.
For the Cubs, the over is on streaks of 6-1 overall, 19-8 on the road, 4-0 on Sundays, 5-1 against the N.L. East, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-0 when Dempster works on the highway. Also, the over is 18-9 in the last 27 series meetings between these clubs and 8-3 in the last 11 in Florida. Conversely, the under is 7-2 in the Marlins’ last nine home games and 6-0 in Volstad’s first six big-league starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
Milwaukee (71-53) at L.A. Dodgers (63-60)
The streaking Dodgers hand the ball to 20-year-old rookie Clayton Kershaw (2-3, 4.56) as they wrap up a three-game series against the Brewers and Jeff Suppan (8-7, 4.56) at Dodger Stadium.
Milwaukee pulled out a 4-3, 10-inning victory on Saturday to improve to 9-2 in its last 11 games. The Brewers are also on runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 14-4 on the highway, 6-1 versus lefty starters, 8-2 on Sundays and 6-1 in Suppan’s last seven starts.
Los Angeles had a five-game winning streak snapped with last night’s defeat. However, the Dodgers are still on surges of 7-3 overall, 13-4 at home (7-1 in their last eight), 8-4 against the N.L. Central and 5-1 on Sundays. Also, L.A. is 42-21 in the last 63 meetings with Milwaukee (3-2 this year), including 21-9 against the Brew Crew in the past 30 battles at Dodger Stadium.
Kershaw has been brilliant over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 1.44 ERA. He got a no-decision Tuesday against Philadelphia, giving up three runs in six frames, with the Dodgers prevailing, 4-3. The southpaw is 1-2 with a 3.08 ERA in seven home starts and 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA in six daytime outings.
Suppan has been lights out over his last three starts ‘ all on the road ‘ going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA, including an impressive 5-2 win in San Diego on Monday as he yielded just two runs and four hits in eight innings. With his last three victories, Suppan is now 6-5 with a 4.79 ERA outside of Milwaukee.
Today marks Kershaw’s first career start against Milwaukee, but Suppan has faced the Dodgers nine times in the regular season, going 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA. Throw in a playoff start when he was with the Cardinals in 2004, and Suppan has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of his 10 outings against L.A.
The under is 9-3-2 in the Brewers’ last 14 games overall, 12-2-1 in their last 15 road tilts, 3-0 in Suppan’s last three starts overall and 10-4 in Suppan’s 14 road starts this year (4-0 last four). For Los Angeles, the under is on streaks of 10-5-1 overall, 20-9-1 at Dodger Stadium, 4-0 on Saturdays, 17-7 against the N.L. Central, 5-1-1 when Kershaw pitches at home and 5-0 in Kershaw’s five daytime starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. DODGERS and UNDER
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